Let’s get one thing clear: I will not be rooting for the Brewers in the 2026 World Series. As the current primary rival for the Cubs, I just can’t do it.
That being said, I do wonder if the win in the 2026 World Series could actually help the Cubs compete with the Brewers in the future. Here are a few possible reasons.
The Championship “Hangover”
Is this real?
On a podcast with Johnny Manziel, Rizzo detailed the “emotional and physical drain of a championship run”.
But what does the data say about what happens to a team after a championship?
| 2nd Year | Previous Winner | Champ Wins | Next Year Wins | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Dodgers | 93 | 100 | 7 |
| 2025 | Dodgers | 98 | 93 | -5 |
| 2024 | Rangers | 90 | 78 | -12 |
| 2023 | Astros | 106 | 90 | -16 |
| 2022 | Braves | 88 | 101 | 13 |
| 2021 | Dodgers | *116 | 106 | -10 |
| 2020 | Nationals | 93 | *70 | -23 |
| 2019 | Red Sox | 108 | 84 | -24 |
| 2018 | Astros | 101 | 103 | 2 |
| 2017 | Cubs | 103 | 92 | -11 |
| 2016 | Royals | 95 | 81 | -14 |
| Average | -8.45 |
*Impacted by shortened 2020 season. 2020 wins were multiplied by 2.7 to extrapolate to 162-game season.
Over the past 11 seasons, teams winning the championship have averaged over 8 fewer wins the next season. By contrast, World Series losers only regressed by 2.4 wins. There were a few outliers, but typically teams did worse after winning a championship.
Champions want to get paid
The Brewers are a small market team with a low payroll. They are also a team who either trade their pending big-name free agents (Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes, Devin Williams and Freddy Peralta) or lets them leave via free agency (Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames).
This season, they stand to lose Jake Bauers, Dustin May, Anthony Senzatela, Jojo Romero and Brandon Woodruff. May has a mutual option and Senzatela a club option that are almost certain to be declined. William Contreras has a $14.5M club option that the Brewers are sure to pick up. But he is set to bee a free agent in 2028.
Milwaukee has a great catching prospect, Jefferson Quero, coming through their system. But will they follow their previous organization strategy, and trade Contreras? I would highly doubt it, especially if he helps bring them a title.
Trevor Megill will be 35 and an unrestricted free agent in 2028, so I’d be shocked if he was not traded before next season. But what if he closes out an elimination game? Perhaps they just let him walk after 2028, as with Abner Uribe and Aaron Ashby, they have two capable closers, and they do not seem to want to pay for saves.
For some other players, such as Megill, Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell, arbitration should bring more lucrative contracts. And will Jacob Misiorowski be happy with his pre-arbitration deal after winning a Cy Young award?
Finally, for the players who signed long-term deals early — Luis Lara, Cooper Pratt, and especially Jackson Chourio — will there be some remorse? If he keeps up his current production, Chourio will definitely be underpaid for several seasons.
If you’re not the Dodgers, paying the all the players who have brough a team the championship is typically impossible.
But these are the Brewers
Ultimately, I can’t think winning a championship will cause the Brewers to change course or feel any kind of negative impact. As a fan of the Cubs, I could hope that winning a title would change the strategy of the front office or attitude of the players, but I doubt it. They’ve kept on this course throughout this decade, and won the NL Central almost every season.
There’s lots of luck and circumstance involved in winning the MLB playoffs, and this season, it seems like things are going the Brewers’ way.
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