As a Cubs fan, I spend way too much time thinking about the Brewers. I don’t spend much time at all thinking about the Reds or the Pirates. And I spend much less time than I used to thinking about the Cardinals.
Recently, there was a Twitter post joking that everyone in the U.S. outside of Los Angeles would be rooting for the Brewers. I had to respond that while I respect the organization, I would never root for them. And I realized, I now would root against them more than I would root against the Cardinals. And if they got to a World Series against the Yankees, I don’t know what I’d do.
The Brewers weren’t even in the same league, let alone division as the Cubs until 1998. They were brought over to the NL Central after Arizona and Tampa Bay were added to MLB. But because interleague play was so minimal, they could not have a 15/15 team split between the AL and NL, as that would have required interleague games during the entire season.
So, the answer was to make the league 16/14, putting six teams in the NL Central and only 4 in the AL West. This unbalanced league continued until 2013, when the Astros were required to move to the AL West as part of their sale. Interleague play was expanded to 20 games per team every season, and ran throughout the season, which allowed the leagues to be an even split.
In those first 15 years of the Brewers in the NL, they were not great. They won the division only once, in 2011, and made the playoffs as a Wild Card only one other time, in 2008. The Reds won the division twice, the Cubs and Astros 3 times, and the Cardinals 6 times in that stretch. So, as a Cubs fan, I was happy to see the Astros go to the AL instead of the Brewers.
Of course, the Cardinals were still the biggest rival of the Cubs, and I’m not just saying that because I grew up half way between the two, with a pretty even split of fans from both teams.
In 2015, when the Cubs defeated the Cardinals in the playoffs, it really felt lie a massive achievement to defeat a bitter rival who had accomplished so much. They were the team that was held in highest regard in the NL Central.
Things began to shift in 2017. The Cubs were trailing the Brewers at the All-Star Break, and traded Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez for Jose Quintana. While the Cubs were able to hold off the Brewers the tide was shifting.
2018 was the first real indication that the Brewers were going to be a big problem for the Cubs moving forward. As of September 5th, the Cubs had a 5-game lead over the Brewers, and appeared to be cruising to their 3rd straight division title.
Instead, the Brewers won 16 of 21 games down the stretch, including their last 7 in a row to force a 1-game playoff against the Cubs for the division crown, which they also won. The Cubs, relegated to the Wild Card lost a 2-1 game in 13 innings to the Colorado Rockies. Excluding the 2020 Covid season, they have not won another division title, while the Brewers have won five.
But the Cardinals were not done. They won the division in 2019 and 2022, and got a Wild Card spot in 2021. So, despite their amazing comeback in 2018 and division win in 2021, I still don’t think the Brewers had overtaken the Cardinals as the Cubs’ primary rival.
But 2023 is where everything started to flip. The Brewers won the division, with the Cubs barely missing out on a Wild Card. The Cardinals has an awful year, and dropped down to last in the Central. 2024 was like a rinse and repeat, with the Brewers winning the Central again, and the Cubs floundering down the stretch. It was also the first season with Craig Counsell moving over from the Brewers to manage the Cubs, which was supposed to bring sanity back to the division, and an end to the Milwaukee voodoo.
So at this point, the Brewers were definitely seen as the class of the NL Central. But with a small market and low payroll, 2025 was the year it was all supposed to change. After a 5-3 win over Milwaukee on June 17th, the Cubs had a 6.5 game lead in the Central, and appeared to be back on top. The Brewers not even in 2nd at that point, and were languishing with a 25-28 record as of May 25th. Their fantastical run looked to be at its end.
But of course, Milwaukee had another tun in them – this one being historic. They went from 25-28 to 79-45 (a 54-17 record) which included a 14-game winning streak, to take command of the division.
And it was during that run, I believe, that they became the Cubs primary rival, supplanting the St. Louis Cardinals. They were no longer the small market team that hit on some trades, signings and prospects to win the division a couple of time. They were a force in the NL Central who – despite the players they traded away – would be the favorites for the division and the primary thorn in the Chicago Cubs side for the foreseeable future.
Some might argue the shift came earlier, but I think the historic Cubs/Cardinals rivalry still took precedence until 2025, despite the proximity of Milwaukee to Chicago and the success of the Brewers. Certainly, the Brewers became the bigger rival from a competitive perspective in 2023, but I think they are now the bigger rival in terms of culture and attitude. The flying of the L flag after the 2025 division series just solidified things.
The Cardinals have a good young team, and made more noise in 2026 than expected. But it will take time and several circumstances (beaning PCA?) for them to supplant the Brewers. After being the primary rival for the Cubs during my entire 40+ year fandom, they are now a distant second. Personally, I would prefer that the Cardinals take back the #1 rival spot, but I do not see it happening anytime soon.
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