Playoff chaos

As we get towards mid-August, there are still lots of teams that appear to be in the playoff hunt. In the NL, 6 teams currently not in a playoff position are within 6 games of the 3rd playoff spot. While in the AL, 6 more teams are only 3.5 games back of that 3rd spot. That makes 24 out of 30 teams in MLB within 6 games of a playoff spot as of August 10th.

Last season at this time, 5 teams were at 95%+ to make the playoffs, 1 was at 77.5%, and then the next team was at 11.3%. In the AL in 2025, 3 teams were at or above 95%, one was at 90%, two were between 75 and 80%, and then it dropped down to two teams above 20% and the rest below 10%. That is 12 teams that were at 75% or above.

This season, there are still several favorites, with 7 teams above 90%, and one at 80%. But that is only 8 teams. That leaves 9 teams between 25 and 60% who will be fighting for spots. Meaning the regular season in 2026 should be much more exciting.

Fortunately, the Cubs are one of the teams that does not look to be fighting for a spot — at least for now. After hitting a season low 35.4% of making the playoffs on June 9th, they are currently at 98.8%.

Winning the division is still a long-shot, at only 16.2%

Interestingly, Fangraphs only gives the Brewers, who have the best record in the NL, a 4% edge in winning the World Series. The Dodgers are still, rightly so, the darling of projections, with a 22.7% chance to win the World Series.

As far as the rest of the NL goes, there are 4 obvious teams at the top in the Brewers, Braves, Dodgers and Cubs. But despite only being in the 3rd spot for a WIld Card behind the Diamondbacks, the Phillies still have a 79.7% chance of making the playoffs. In face, for the last 2 Wild Card sports, only 4 teams are above a 10% Chance. And Miami is just barely above 10%. This graph would make it seem like Arizona and San Diego will be fighting for the last spot.

There are a few other teams who will need a 5 or 6-game winning streak to get back into the hunt.

The Pirates at 7.8%, the Cardinals are at 7.2%, the Nationals at 2.0% and the Reds at 0.5%.

Much of this is due to strength of schedule remaining, as the Reds have a tougher schedule than anyone in NL except for the Brewers. But they are projected to have a .442 winning percentage the rest of the way, which is pretty pessimistic.

Here are the remaining strengths of schedule for the playoff contenders:

Team	Strength of Sched	Make Playoffs
Dodgers	.483	100.0%
Diamondbacks	.496	51.9%
Pirates	.498	7.8%
Padres	.499	41.6%
Nationals	.500	2.0%
Cubs	.500	98.8%
Phillies	.502	79.3%
Cardinals	.503	7.2%
Braves	.509	99.7%
Marlins	.509	11.1%
Reds	.518	0.5%
Brewers	.521	100.0%

Meanwhile, despite an opposing schedule with a .502 win percentage, the Phillies are projected to finish out on a .558 clip, which is a better projection for anyone except the Dodgers (who have the easiest remaining schedule) in the NL.

I feel like the projections system sometime error a little to much on the side of what they projected when the season started. But we will find out.

Over in the AL things are even closer. The Rays, Yankees and Red Sox (who had an 8.4% chance to make the playoffs on June 21st) are the three “locks”. Then, things break into 4 tiers: Over 50% chance, over 25% chance, low chance, and no chance.

Three teams make up the over 50% tier

The primary reason is that it is likely that 2 of these 3 teams win their respective divisions.

In the next tier, 4 teams area above 25%

Detroit, who gave up Tarik Skubal, are just below the Guardians in odds for the last Wild Card spot, despite being above Cleveland in the current standings. And Minnesota is about 10% below the Guardians, despite being tied with them.

There are a couple more AL teams above a zero percent chance to make the playoffs, the other two teams from the AL East. They have no chance to win the division, which severely decreases their playoff odds. Ultimately, these were very disappointing teams, especially last year’s AL Champion Blue Jays.

Finally, the Athletics, Angels and Royals are not playoff contenders.

Looking at the AL Strength of Schedule, the Guardians have the easiest schedule and the Rays have the toughest. But these are close enough that the teams currently in the playoff positions have a large advantage.

Team	Strength of Sched	Make Playoffs
Guardians	.477	35.3%
Rangers	.486	55.1%
Mariners	.491	31.5%
Tigers	.492	33.1%
Twins	.494	25.0%
White Sox	.494	52.0%
Astros	.496	54.0%
Yankees	.498	99.0%
Blue Jays	.502	6.4%
Red Sox	.503	95.6%
Orioles	.504	13.0%
Rays	.507	100.0%

Honestly, any big winning streak could push one of the teams in the middle or toward the bottom into a playoff spot, and I’m guessing the last couple playoffs spots in both leagues could come down to the final day.