With no Cubs game yesterday, I had some free time to run through an Out of the Park Baseball simulation of the rest of the season, acting as the GM. I may go into more detail in a different post (spoiler: the decisions around who to keep or release from the pitching staff was crazy), but for now I wanted to focus on something I found interesting about the AL Playoffs.
As of now, the top 3 teams in the AL are all in the East, with the Red Sox currently 2.5 games ahead of the White Sox, who are the 4th best team. The Rays and Yankees are both even further ahead.
Based on how well the Red Sox have been playing, it would not be a surprise if those 3 AL East teams finish with the top 3 records in the AL. But because of the way the MLB Playoff format works, that would require those three teams to play each other in the WIld Card or Divisional round, ensuring a team for the weaker AL West or AL Central make it to the ALCS– (with the only exception being if the Blue Jays or Orioles sneak into the final Wild Card spot, and win two series.
I see two major weaknesses with the playoff format as it stands now.
- The Wild Card and Division Series are too short.
I honestly think the the regular season should be shortened, and the Division Series should be best-of-7. The Wild Card series is trickier, as the incentive to be a top-2 seed and get the bye is a good thing, but if that series was best-of-5, it could lead to a long layoff for the top 2 seeds, which would diminish their advantage. So I don’t see an easy way to change that format that would be fair. - The seeding is too dependent on divisions.
The NL is actually quite balanced across the divisions this season, but when there is a weaker division – or in this case 2 weaker divisions – I’m not sure why the divisions should be rewarded with better playoff sedding. Especially since MLB went to a much more balanced schedule, with fewer inter-divisional games. Perhaps a system where the teams top two records got byes, and the seeding was done by record regardless of division. The division winners could still get automatic playoff spots, but it would not impact seeding.
Here how the playoffs would look right now with the current system.
NLWC1: Cubs vs DBacks
NLWC2: Dodgers vs Phillies (the Braves have the tiebreaker of the DOdgers, but the teams still have 3 games left)
NLDS1: Brewers vs Cubs/DBacks
NLDS2: Braves vs Dodgers/Phillies
NLCS: Brewers/Cubs/DBacks vs Dodgers/Braves/Phillies
ALWC1: Yankees vs Red Sox
ALWC2: Astros vs Rangers
ALDS1: Rays vs Yankees/Red Sox
ALDS2: White Sox vs Astros/Rangers
ALCS: Rays/Yankees/Red Sox vs White Sox/Astros/Rangers
Now lets look at a format where division winner only were guaranteed a spot:
The National league playoff would look identical, as the current division leaders are the top 3 teams in the league. So in that case, the format worked great. But in the AL things would be very different.
ALWC1: White Sox vs Astros
ALWC2: Red Sox vs Rangers
ALDS1: Rays vs White Sox/Astros
ALDS2: Yankees vs Red Sox/Rangers
ALCS: Rays/White Sox/Astros vs Yankees/Red Sox/Rangers
Personally, I think the second option is much more fair, with the Yankees and Rays both getting byes, and the best two teams in the AL not forced to play each other in the division series. And I’d much rather the two best teas in a league play in a best-of-7 as opposed to a best-of-5.
Of course, things could change, and this, most likely, not be the final standings. If a team were able to overtake the Red Sox as the 3rd best team, my point would be moot. Also, a Wild Card series pitting the Yankees against the Red Sox again this year would provide plenty of drama. And I suppose that it what MLB is really looking for.
Cubs in 7 
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