A sometimes bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. The ratings are based around how much each reliever causes my hair to turn grey or even fall out.
In the midst of an anemic offense to finish the season, the bullpen was actually a little but of a bright spot. Zeferjahn has been a bit better and Palencia looks like he might be back to his dominant ways. Unfortunately, the sample size is too small for me to have high confidence in either. That leaves just about everyone in the medium confidence range, which give the Cubs a severe disadvantage against the Padres if the game comes down to the bullpens.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
No one
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
No one – although Palencia is getting close if he has a good series.
Some gray hair (medium confidence)
–Ryan Rolison– He has given up 4 runs in his last 5 games, pushing his ERA over 3. The fact that he is highest on this list is a great testament to the good work he’s done this season as a waiver pickup after 2025, but also a scathing indictment of how the Cubs built the bullpen this season.
–Daniel Palencia– The Palencia that Cubs fans want and need may have returned for a brief cameo at the end of a rough season. His ERA is down to 3.64 after 6 straight scoreless innings. He has allowed no hits and 3 walks in 6.2 innings over that stretch. I’m not sure how Counsell will deploy him in the playoffs, but I can guarantee it will be in high leverage situations. The key will be his fastball location, as it seems like he has confidence in that pitch again. When he can’t throw it for strikes, and he relies on his slider to get a pitch over the plate, bad things happen.
–Ryan Zeferjahn– Like Palencia, he has 6 straight appearances with no runs allowed. Unlike Palencia, he has allowed 5 hits and 2 walks in that time, so he he’s been forced to get out of some jams. I think he and Rolison might continue to close out games, but we will see.
–Aaron Civale– He finished with a 1.72 ERA with the Cubs, and I think that’s good enough to get him a spot in the postseason bullpen. He last 4 games have not been great, giving up 3 runs over 6.1 innings. I doubt he gets a really high leverage playoff appearance, but he might be needed if one of the starters can’t go long and they need a couple of innings.
–Javier Assad– With Civale doing so well, and 2 of the starters available in the bullpen, Assad could be at risk for not making the roster. He does do well when runners are on base, so it’s possible that he is deployed in a dirty inning fairly early in a game – as Counsell will have a short leash with the starters.
–Caleb Thielbar– After a decent stretch in August, September was not quite as kind. And in the last two games, he gave up 3 runs to the Marlins in a shambolic 12th inning and then gave up a 2-run single to the Red Sox. Both were dirty innings, and only 2 earned wuns were charged to Thielbar, but I think he makes the postseason roster to go after left-handed hitters.
–Jacob Webb– After giving up walk-off home runs twice in three games, Webb is back to the role he should be in as a middle inning guy, who has good reverse splits. No runs 2 hits and a wlak in his last 3. We might see him in the postseason, but he certainly is done as a closer.
–Colin Rea– After a bad game in Miami, he finished the season with 4 scoreless outings over 5 games, giving up a hit a no walks. The only reason I don’t have him higher (probably above Thielbar) is that the Cubs have refused to put him in a high-leverage spot. At this point, I think he’s the last cut for the postseason roster, but we will see.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Braxton Garrett– He was good in the meaningless game against the Red Sox. He’s a guy who will be “in the mix” for a spot on the 2027 pitching staff, most likely as a reliever. But maybe he shows enough to be a 5th starter.
No hair left (no confidence)
–Edward Cabrera– Technically, he finished the season on the family emergency list, so hopefully things are OK. After a spark of possibility that he could be a weapon out of the bullpen in the last week and the playoffs, his pitching put that spark out with a vengeance.
Moved to the Rotation:
No one
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Trent Thornton– 15-day IL – I was thinking he might make the postseason roster, but I think the peripherals finally caught up to the results. And he might be legitimately injured. If he is healthy, he could be an injury replacement if one of the pitchers is injured.
–Gavin Hollowell– AAA – Had a brief stint to give the Cubs an inning against the Red Sox before being optioned. He will not be making the postseason roster
–Shelby Miller– 60-day IL – Hopes for an unlikely return for Miller in 2026 were finally dashed, as he was shut down.
–Andrew Wantz– AAA – Season over
–Ethan Roberts– AAA – Season over
–Hunter Harvey– 60-day IL – Will he be back in 2027 on a team-friendly deal?
–Riley Martin– 60-day IL – GOt a couple of
–Phil Maton– 60-day IL – Under contract in 2027
–Jordan Wicks– AAA
–Jayden Murray– AAA
–Ty Blach– AAA
–Corbin Martin– AAA
–Porter Hodge– 60-day IL – Out for 2026
Released:
–Antoine Kelly– he was DFA’d to make room for a waiver acquisition (Julian Aguiar of the Reds). He appeared in 1 game for the Cubs this season, with one walk and one strikeout in 1.1 innings. He was just OK in Iowa this year, with a 5.16 ERA over 29.2 innings.
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