Are the Cubs a “fair weather” offense?

Based on stats in 2026, it appears that they are, performing much better offensively when temperatures are higher. Conversely, their pitchers are much better when the temperatures drop.

My hypothesis would be that this correlates very closely with wind direction, as the wind typically blows out during warm days at Wrigley field. But we will take a look at what the numbers reflect.

Fangraphs splits tool has a very cool feature that allows you to track individual and team performance based on weather. This feature goes at-bat by at-bat, so withing the same game, the temperature or wind might change, which would be reflected in the stats.

Let’s start with a simple chart of splits when temps are below or above 75 degrees:

Temperature	PAs	Runs	R/PA	OPS	wRC+
74 and below	2901	341	0.118	.714	102
75 and above	3107	465	0.150	.820	127

Let’s split that up by home versus road

Temperature	PAs	Runs	R/PA	OPS	wRC+
74 and below home	1680	181	0.108	.706	102
74 and below road	1221	160	0.131	.725	102
75 and above home	1374	234	0.170	.903	151
75 and above road	1534	231	0.151	.755	108

So, it is obvious that weather plays more of a factor at home than on the road. S that makes me even more sure that the wind is playing a big part. Now sometimes the wind is neutral, but lets look first at win blowing in versus out for these same numbers:

Wind at Wrigley	PAs	Runs	R/PA	OPS	wRC+
Blowing In	913	105	0.115	.711	104
Blowing Out	1202	207	0.172	.927	156

As suspected, the easy answer appears to be the correct one. When the wind blows out, the Cubs offense is great. When it blows in, the offense just blows. Not shocking stuff.

Here is the correlation of wind to temperature:

Temperature and wind	PAs	Runs	R/PA	OPS	wRC+
74 and below wind in	676	67	0.100	.661	90
74 and below wind out	361	62	0.172	.923	153
75 and above wind in	237	38	0.160	.853	144
75 and above wind out	781	142	0.182	.963	167

So it is interesting to note that the offense is still fairly good for the Cubs at home if the wind is blowing in and the temps are above 75 degrees. But when the wind is blowing in and the temps are low, the offense crumbles. Lets take one more look at the wind blowing in and wind speed to see if that makes a big difference.

Wind Speed	PAs	Runs	R/PA	OPS	wRC+
1-5 mph in	187	16	0.086	.696	98
6-10 mph in	253	36	0.142	.765	1118
11-15 mph in	140	10	0.071	.486	40
20 or higher mph in	130	10	0.077	.606	83

So when the wind is howling in, the Cubs can’t score. Another less than shocking development.

Now the flip side. What happens to the pitching in Wrigley based on the weather

Temperature and wind	IP	ERA	FIP	HR/9
74 and below wind in	183.2	3.19	3.29	0.88
74 and below wind out	82.1	62	5.53	1.53
75 and above wind in	53.2	3.19	4.01	1.01
75 and above wind out	175.1	5.85	5.63	2.10

Another less than shocking development.

So what does this mean for the Cubs in the playoffs? With their inability to manufacture runs, and reliance on slugging, it might actually better for them to go to a warmer weather spot.

However, the pitching will certainly give up more runs, especially Imanaga, Boyd and Gausman, who have had problems with giving up home runs.

Couple the potential for poor pitching results with other disadvantages of being a road team, and I still think it is a net negative for the Cubs. But at least we should see some offense.