Let’s take a look at the playoff races as they stand, and the biggest races left:
National League
Top 2 Division Winners
The Brewers are still in the driver’s seat for the top spot, but two losses in Cincinnati have tightened the race.
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 88 | 56 | – | .511 |
| Dodgers | 86 | 57 | 1.5 | .467 |
| Braves | 85 | 58 | 2.5 | .511 |
With the easiest schedule, it looks like the Dodgers have a good chance of catching and passing the Brewers. However, the Dodgers lost the tiebreakers to both the Braves and Brewers. The Brewers/Braves tiebreaker would come down to division record, which would favor the Braves at this point.
Top Wild Card Team
The DBacks and Padres have an outside chance, but it looks like the competition is between the Cubs and Phillies.
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 81 | 63 | – | .514 |
| Phillies | 80 | 63 | 0.5 | .519 |
Only 0.5 games separate the teams, and they have very similar (tough) schedules the rest of the way with common games against the Brewers and Braves. The Cubs also get the Reds, Pirates, Marlins and Red Sox, while the Phillies play the Nationals, Mets, Rays and Astros.
The Final Wild Card
This appears to be a head-to-head battle between the Diamondbacks and Padres.
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | 76 | 68 | – | .486 |
| Padres | 75 | 68 | 0.5 | .482 |
Fangraphs gives the Diamondbacks a slight edge (53.8 to 43.6), but I think that spread is high, as the Padres have a slightly easier schedule. Whoever wins the final series of the season between the two teams will own the tiebreaker, so this could potentially come down to a one-game elimination on the final day.
American League
The Division Races
Unlike the NL, the Al has some competition for the divisions, especially the Central and West.
AL East
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays* | 85 | 58 | – | .517 |
| Yankees | 81 | 62 | 4.0 | .493 |
AL Central
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| While Sox* | 75 | 68 | – | .481 |
| Guardians | 73 | 71 | 2.5 | .478 |
AL West
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros+ | 73 | 71 | – | .499 |
| Rangers | 71 | 73 | 2.0 | .515 |
*Owns current tiebreaker
+Won tiebreaker
Final Wild Card
This is where things get crazy. 2nd place in the East (Rays or Yankees) have the top Wild Card and the Red Sox are pretty locked into 2nd spot. But things are wide open for the last Wild Card.
Here are all the teams who might get that spot
| Team | W | L | GB | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| *White Sox | 75 | 68 | +2.5 | .481 |
| *Astros | 73 | 71 | – | .499 |
| Guardians | 73 | 71 | – | .478 |
| Blue Jays | 72 | 27 | 1.0 | .479 |
| Rangers | 71 | 73 | 2.0 | .515 |
| Orioles | 69 | 75 | 4.0 | .521 |
| Twins | 68 | 75 | 4.5 | .488 |
*Current Division Leader
Here is a link to a site that shows all the tiebreakers: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-playoff-picture-and-bracket-2026
Unless one of these teams goes on a big winning streak, I’d expect this race to come down to the final weekend.
The craziest thing might be that it could be preferable for the Red Sox to finish in the 5th playoff spot instead of the 6th, as it would allow them to play (probably) the Astros instead of the Yankees in the Wild Card round. In either case, they’d be on the road. And if they could get past that series, they would play the White Sox instead of the Rays.
It would be impossible for them to manipulate wins and losses to get that result, but a bad streak at the end of the year that would allow them to drop to the 6 spot, but not out of the playoffs seems like it would open a preferable path.
What happened in 2025?
Here were the standings and Playoff odds in 2025:
| Team | W | L | Div GB | SOS | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 82 | 62 | 0.0 | .495 | 99.9% |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 61 | 0.0 | .500 | 99.9% |
| Astros | 78 | 66 | 0.0 | .508 | 88.9% |
| Mariners | 75 | 68 | 2.5 | .490 | 79.4% |
| Yankees | 80 | 63 | 2.0 | .481 | 99.9% |
| Red Sox | 79 | 65 | 3.5 | .517 | 95.5% |
| Rangers | 74 | 70 | 4.0 | .504 | 15.0% |
| Guardians | 72 | 70 | 9.0 | .487 | 7.5% |
| Royals | 73 | 70 | 8.5 | .508 | 12.2% |
| Team | W | L | Div GB | SOS | Make Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 89 | 55 | 0.0 | .486 | 100.0% |
| Phillies | 83 | 60 | 0.0 | .513 | 100.0% |
| Dodgers | 79 | 64 | 0.0 | .502 | 99.4% |
| Padres | 78 | 65 | 1.0 | .473 | 97.8% |
| Mets | 76 | 67 | 7.0 | .493 | 93.4% |
| Cubs | 81 | 62 | 7.5 | .507 | 99.7% |
| Giants | 72 | 71 | 7.0 | .515 | 2.9% |
| Diamondbacks | 72 | 72 | 7.5 | .532 | 1.7% |
| Reds | 72 | 71 | 16.5 | .507 | 4.1% |
A couple of absolutely crazy things happened in 2025. The Astros, who had an 88.5% chance of making the playoffs did not make it, going 9-9, while the Guardians, at 7.5%, came back to win the Central, closing with a 16-4 record. In the NL, the Mets, who were at 93.4%, missed out by going 7-12, while the Reds snuck into the final spot, going 11-8.
The seeding in the AL went through a major shake-up in the last few weeks, with the Tigers having a rough end to the season, finishing at 5-13 to lose the division and a bye, and barely holding on to the final Wild Card via a tiebreaker. The Mariners went 15-4 to overtake the Astros and grab the 2nd bye.
In the NL, the final seeding finished exactly where things were on September 7th, except for the Reds getting the last spot.
So at this time of the season, there are two lessons:
- Teams in a comfortable spot need to avoid an end of season swoon.
- It is possible for a team to come out of nowhere to get a spot if they get very, very hot.
Not a big surprise.
Cubs in 7 
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