Cubs Roster Crunch: What will happen with the bullpen?

After the deadline, here was my projection of what the Cubs pitching staff would look like in September

• SP – Holmes
• SP – Gausman
• SP – Imanaga
• SP – Boyd
• SP – Cabrara
• CL – Palencia
• RP – Webb
• RP – Zeferjahn
• RP – Rolison
• RP – Milner
• RP – Thielbar
• RP – Peterson
• RP – Rea
• RP – Brown (27th roster spot after Sept 1)

The big misses were Cabrera, Milner and Brown being on the staff, with Thornton, Civale and Ferguson (probably soon to be Assad) missing.

The bullpen has been lousy lately, so there has been lots of speculation about potential additions. But there isn’t much room for anyone, unless the Cubs decide to:

1. Send Rolison, Thielbar or Zeferjahn to the minors. I’m assuming Ferguson will be sent down as soon as Assad is eligible to return.
2. DFA Thielbar, Rea, Thornton, or Civale
3. Send someone to the injured list

That being said, here are the guys who could reinforce the bullpen

1. Javier Assad – there are some players who can dominate in the minors, but fall apart when they get promoted to the majors. Assad has been the opposite this season. He has a 6.12 ERA and 1.72 WHIP at Iowa, but a 3.46 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in Chicago. He is one of those guys who just gets outs and strands runners, without big strikeout numbers.
   
2. Edward Cabrera – he gave up a home run in his first rehab appearance as a reliever, but stuck out two. He will have several more appearances in Iowa before he might get brought back. Having a guy who can throw in the upper 90s come in would be great, but command (similar to Palencia and Zeferjahn) will be the issue.
   
3. Justin Steele – I’m very skeptical that Steele has enough time to ramp up against real hitters. He had his first rehab appearance this week, and his velocity was in the low 90s. Honestly, I really just want him to continue his rehab and be ready for next season.
   
4. Shelby Miller – Similar to Steele, Miller is coming off major surgery. When he was signed, the narrative was that he was going to focus on rehab in 2026 to be ready in 2027. He’s not been very good at Iowa (5.87 ERA in 7.2 innings), but his velocity has been good.
   
5. Jaxon Wiggins – He has not allowed a run in 7 relief appearances over 8 innings, allowing 4 hits and 4 walks, striking out 10. His numbers as a starter are not good, but the Cubs may have found something with him as a reliever. Unfortunately, the Cubs do not have the time or roster sports to try him out in the majors. More likely is that we see him in the bullpen next season.

The bottom line is that I expect to see Assad back with the Cubs this weekend, replacing Tyler Ferguson. If Edward Cabrera looks good in his rehab appearances, he would be the other guy I would expect to join the September bullpen, and potentially on a playoff roster. Where would he fit in and who would he replace?

If there’s an injury, the choice will be easy. If not, it will be much more difficult. Over the past two weeks, here are the ERA’s of Cubs pitchers

Name	G	IP	ERA	FIP
Aaron Civale	4	8.2	0.00	2.98
Colin Rea	4	5.2	1.59	2.04
Caleb Thielbar	6	5.1	1.69	1.60
Ryan Zeferjahn	6	5.2	4.76	2.21
Tyler Ferguson	1	1.2	5.40	13.30
Ryan Rolison	6	5.2	6.35	5.74
Trent Thornton	7	6.2	8.10	7.75
Daniel Palencia	5	4.1	14.54	8.17
Jacob Webb	5	4.0	15.75	10.10

The two guys who were probably the most likely to be DFA’d about a month ago were CIvale and Thielbar. But they’ve been 2 of the best relievers over the past two weeks. That might leave a demotion for Palencia if he can’t get it together, or a DFA for someone who doesn’t perform over the next two weeks.

Here is my final pitching staff prediction for late September

SP – Holmes
SP – Gausman
SP – Boyd
SP – Peterson
SP – Imanaga
CL – Webb
RP – Zeferjahn
RP – Rolison
RP – Palencia
RP – Thielbar
RP – Thornton
RP – Assad
RP – Rea
RP – Civale

That would leave Cabrera, Steele, Miller and Wiggins all off the roster. I think they are all too risky to add, and despite the recent struggles of the bullpen, I feel like the front office and Counsell will trust the guys who are currently on the active roster as opposed to any of the wild cards. But, as we know, plans can change quickly based on unforeseen circumstances..