A sometimes bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. The ratings are based around how much each reliever causes my hair to turn grey or even fall out.
When the Cubs had a terrible month of mid-May to early June, the bullpen was the one part of the team that was doing well. OK, maybe the defense as well. But the starting pitching and hitting were both in a terrible slump. But now that the calendar has turned to September, the bullpen has become a huge problem, and the biggest concern as the Cubs head to a Wild Card spot.
How bad has it been? They have a 5.37 ERA since 8/16, and 6.32 since 8/23. That’s only 25th in MLB (I would have guessed it was worse).
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
No one
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Jacob Webb– His scoreless streak came to an abrupt end, as he gave up walk-off home runs in back-to-back appearances. One was a decent low pitch that Randy Arozerena got a good swing on. The other was a mistake to a diamondbacks rookie. He will hold on to the closer role, as no one else is even fighting for the job.
Some gray hair (medium confidence)
–Ryan Rolison– He has had some rough outings lately, giving up 6 runs in last 6 appearances (over only 5 innings), with 2 homers allowed in that time. He’s still the primary lefty out of the bullpen, but he’s fallen off along with the rest of the relievers.
–Aaron Civale– He has been good enough to avoid a DFA, leading to the release of Hoby Milner. His ERA with the Cubs is 1.54, and he’s provided very good multi-inning appearances. If a starter has a short outing, Civale is the guy they are going to.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Trent Thornton– Right after I post a mea culpa for being a Thornton skeptic most of the season he decides to turn into a pumpkin, giving up 2 homers in a 5-run meltdown, and followed that up by giving up a solo shot. He’d gone 26 appearance without allowing a home run, so hopefully this is just a blip.
–Caleb Thielbar– He appeared to be close to release, as his problem giving up home runs continued. But he went 5 games in a row without giving up a run, and hasn’t allow a homer in his last 10 appearances. Unfortunately, he allowed 2 walks and a hit in his last game.
–Colin Rea– His job appears to be giving the Cubs inning in a blowout victory. Perhaps they will look at using him in more high-leverage roles, with so many other struggling.
–Ryan Zeferjahn– He finally had a decent 4-out outing, but he’s given up runs in 6 of 11 appearances. He has power stuff, but seems to have no idea where it’s going. Against the Brewers, he threw an 0-2 pitch down the middle to Jackson Chourio, who would eventually score.
–Daniel Palencia– It has been a rough return for Palencia. Simlilar to Zeferjahn, it just doesnt seem like he knows where pitches are going. Too many fastballs are going way out of the zone, or landing in the middle of the plate. Also, hitters these days are able to hit 98 and 99, as they see it regularly. If he can’t get the fastball up to 100 or 101, it just doesn’t play as well. He also had a big mistake against the Brewers, as he threw a slide that broke inside, right into Christian Yelich’s home run swing.
No hair left (no confidence)
–Tyler Ferguson– AAA – The return of Tyler Ferguson went about as well as expected, as he was touched for a home run by Joey Ortiz. He won’t be around long…in fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s replaced today by another very short-term guy, like Ethan Roberts.
Moved to the Rotation:
No one
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Javier Assad– AAA – Cubs Twitter was angry that he was not promoted when rosters expanded, but the roster rules would not allow it. Players optioned to the minors must stay there for 15 days, unless there is an injury to a pitcher on the active roster. The Cubs had it lined up to bring him back on September 1st, when they optioned him on 8/16. However, the Edward Cabrera injury required that be brought back immediately, and re-optioned on 8/21, which reset his 15-day clock.
–Shelby Miller – 60-day IL (rehab assignment) – Miller is still pitching in Iowa on a rehab assignment. As he is coming off major elbow surgery, he gets up to 60-days of rehab time in the minors. While his name has been mentioned as a possible call-up, he really has not been that great in Iowa, with a 5.87 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Also, he hasn’t gone more than 1 inning and has not pitched in back-to-back games. I’m not seeing him as a savoir at the moment.
–Gavin Hollowell– 15-day-IL – He has resumed throwing, but recovery is slower than expected. Unless he starts a rehab soon, and chances of him coming back are slim.
–Andrew Wantz– AAA – Still in Iowa, and I doubt he sees the majors again this season.
–Ethan Roberts– AAA – He could come up today, but Assad will get that last spot eventually.
–Hunter Harvey– 60-day IL – I was surprised by reports that he had started throwing again, but he had a set-back, and it looks like he’s done.
–Riley Martin– 60-day IL – Shut down for the season.
–Phil Maton– 60-day IL – It’s looking like he will be shutting things down for 2026. He’s under contact for 2027, so maybe with a healthy knee he can actually provide something. Between him, Harvey and Milner, the free agent shopping by the front office for relievers has been a big miss.
–Jordan Wicks– AAA – He might be making his last few starts with the Cubs organization. Between him and Ed Howard, the Cubs have had a couple of first-round busts recently.
–Jayden Murray– AAA
–Ty Blach– AAA
–Corbin Martin– AAA
–Porter Hodge – 60-day IL – Out for 2026
Released:
–Hoby Milner– released – Milner was kept around for the maximum 30-days of rehab in the minor after his appendectomy. But the Cubs decided they wanted to keep the guys they already had in the bullpen, and he was released. He was picked up and activated by the Mariners.
Cubs in 7 
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