A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.
Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman have joined the rotation, and the results have been mixed. Gausman was great and Holmes not so good in their first starts. And then things flipped as Gausman has been mediocre and Holmes has been really good in their last two starts.
Meanwhile, the reintroduction of Edward Cabrera into the rotation was about as successful as the Taillon re-entry – but very different outcomes, of course. Cabrera is back on the IL with his blister issue, and a trip to the bullpen upon his return seems inevitable. So, David Peterson is back in this ratings, despite not starting recently.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
Clay Holmes is still the only candidate for this spot, and if he replicated his last couple starts in the next couple of weeks, I think he could move up here.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Clay Holmes – After a bumpy first start, Holmes has been excellent in his last two, giving up 1 earned run over 12 innings. I still seems like the Cubs are trying to build up his stamina, so I wouldn’t expect him to go 7 or more innings anytime soon, unless his pitch count is really low. Losing Dansby Swanson could hurt a little, as the ground balls he induces might not be turned into outs quite so easily.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Shota Imanaga – I wrote last time about the danger of the 3-run home run in Imanaga starts, and of course, we see on against the White Sox. He was stellar otherwise, allowing almost no other baserunners, and was partly just a victim of bad sequencing, as a solo home run in that spot would have created a very different feeling about the start. The Cubs did win the game, but against a better set of pitchers in a playoff game, a 3-run home run might be lethal.
Matthew Boyd – Boyd’s good run came to an end, and he got blasted by debutant, Joshua Baez, for 3 home runs in his last start. HE had been on such a good run, that I’m not willing to drop him any lower for now. But that was really ugly.
Kevin Gausman – I was expecting him to surpass Boyd and Assad, but if just hasn’t been the case so far. After an excellent first start, he had a rough game against the Nationals, and then suffered an odd hand cramp in his non-throwing hand in a short and not-so-sweet outing against the White Sox. Thoughts that he would slot into one of the top 2 spots in the rotation, and would be a no brainer choice for a playoff start, are fading. The Cubs could really use a bounce back from him.
David Peterson – He very briefly left the rotation and had one relief appearance. I’m not sure what the future holds. He had been somewhat better against left-handed hitters this season (.777 OPS versus RHB, .722 against LHB), which would be an argument to use him out of the bullpen against let-handed segments of an opposing lineup, with Javier Assad or Colin Rea rejoining the rotation. Or perhaps they will just pair up Peterson and Rea in a start.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
No one in the current rotation
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
I could see Peterson moving back to the bullpen, but more for logistical reasons.
Moved to Bullpen:
Javier Assad – Assad just continues to outshine expectations. He uses the elite Cubs defense to help get him out of jams and overcome his low strikeout rate. Craig Counsell has been very careful to get him out of games before going through the opposing lineup for a 3rd time, going 4.2, 5, 4,1 and 5.2 innings in his last 4 starts. But he only gave up 0, 2, 1 and 1 runs in those starts. I do wonder what happens when Holmes and Gausman join the rotation, as it has been reported that the Cubs would get another year of club control if Assad spends a couple more weeks in the minors.
Colin Rea – Rea is the only starter who has not been great lately, and a trip to the bullpen seems imminent. He’s given up 3 or more runs in 3 of 5 starts, allowing 5 homers in those starts. I see lots of 3-inning stints in his future.
Injured Or Sent to Minors:
Edward Cabrera – 15-day IL – He was great in his minor league rehab starts but fell back to earth in his brief return to the majors. I’m not sure how to feel about the story that he hid a developing blister from the manager and coaches. All signs point to him going to the bullpen when he comes off the IL again.
Ben Brown – 60-day IL – A rehab stint in the minors is coming. Although he might be limited to the bullpen on his return, as he may not have the time to stretch out as a starter.
Justin Steele – 60-day IL – He still might come back, but there’s almost no way he starts.
Cade Horton – 60-day IL – Back in 2027? Hopefully.
DFA’d and/or Traded
none
Cubs in 7 
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