Time for an Expectations Reset

At the start of 2026, the expectation for the Cubs was to compete for the NL Central division, with most prognosticators making them the favorite.

About a month in, with one of the best records in the majors, thoughts began to drift toward not only a division crown, but a top two finish in the National League, which would allow the Cubs to skip past the wild card round.

But then May happened, with the Cubs crashing back to earth so hard, and the Brewers continuing their “deal with the devil” winning ways, that any thoughts of a division title were seemingly dashbed.

And June, while better, has not provided enough uplift to get the Cubs within striking distance of the Brewers.

But almost shockingly, the Cubs are currently – barely – one of the projected playoff teams in the National League. And they would play the Brewers in the Wild Card if the season ended today.

And so that is really where we stand in the middle of June in 2026. The Cubs are a team that will need to fight for one of the Wild Card spots if they intend to make it back to the playoffs this season.

The big problem is that there are currently 2 teams ahead of the Cubs in Wild Card sports, two teams virtually tied with the Cubs for the 3rd spot and 4 more teams within 3 games of that spot. And the disappointing Mets are only 6 back, and could conceivably make a charge.

But there is some better news. The Cubs do have a seemingly better pedigree than many of the teams competing for the Wild Card. And if we look at one of the better predictors of future performance – run differential – the Cubs are one of only 4 teams fighting for the spot that are above zero, being the highest of all 9 or 10 contenders at +21.

So let’s take a look at the other teams they are fighting with for those 3 spots:

• St Louis Cardinals: 42-34, +2.5 WC standings, +5 run deifferential
  The young cardinals were expected to finish in the basement of the NL Central, but have had a surprisingly good season. Their offense is 8th in the NL in runs scored, and the pitching in 9th in ERA (by comparison the Cubs are 6th is runs scored and 10th in ERA), so they aren’t setting the world on fire. But they are 14-10 in 1-run games and 7-2 in extra innings, putting their record about 4 wins ahead of what would be expected.
  
• Philadelphia Phillies: 42-36, +1.5 WC Standings, -7 run differential
  After a very rough start, a losing streak, and firing their manager, the Phillies were able to right the ship. They are still lagging in offense, sitting at 11th in the NL in runs scored, but are up to 5th in ERA. They have a very strong top-2 of their rotation with Sanchez and Wheeler, but the rest of the starters have not been great. And Duran is a lock-down closer. Even with a -7 run differential I feel like the Phillies will manage to secure on the the WIld Card spots.
  
• San Diego Padres: 40-37, +0 WC Standings, -9 run differential.
  The Padres were keeping up with the Dodgers to start the season, and were 11-games over .500 at one point. But a 6-game losing streak as May ended and June brought them down to earth. They have a dominant bullpen, and are 4th in the NL in ERA. But they are dead last in runs scored, despites names like Tatis, Bogaerts, Merrill and Machado. They should be another one of the primary rivals to the Cubs, but only if their offense can pick things up as we approach the 2nd half of the season.
  
• Washington Nationals: 41-38, +0 WC Standings, +15 run differential
  The Nationals have been the opposite of the Padres, with their success being all about their offense. They are leading the NL in runs scored, but are 14th or 15 teams in ERA. When they took 2 of 3 from the Cubs to start the season, everyone was shocked. But it turns out that was not a fluke. James Wood has a 157 wRC+, CJ Abrams is at 146, Curtis Mead is at 123 and Keibert Ruiz is at 119. But just like we’d expect the Padres hitting to improve to the mean, the Nationals should regress offensively. And there pitching does not seem to have the quality to compete for a playoff spot. The good run differential would seem to dispute that, but we will see.
  
• Miami Marlins: 40-39, -1 WC Standings, -1 run differential
  Somehow, the Marlins always seem to do slightly better than expected. They are 9th in runs scored in the NL and 6th in ERA, with Max Mayer leading the charge as a starter and a solid bullpen. They are another team you’d expect to drop off in the 2nd half, but who knows.
  
• Pittsburgh Pirates: 39-39, -1.5 WC Standings, +14 run differential
  The Pirates are a couple wins below what they should be, just based on run differential. Despite Paul Skenes and other good young starters, they are 8th in ERA in the NL, but the offense is surprisingly good, with the 4th most runs scored. They have 7 regular players with a wRC+ over 100, with Brian Reynolds at 146. I would expect the pitching to improve, so if they ca keep up the offensive pace, they could make the playoffs. But they are another team ripe for regression on the offensive side, and a .500 record seems about right. In the AL that might be good enough for the playoffs, but I don’t think it will be in the NL.
  
• Arizona Diamondbacks: 39-39, -1.5 WC Standings, -26 run differential
  Based on the variance between their run differential and record, you’d think the DBacks would be great on in run games (they are 13-13) or great in extra innings (where they are 2-4). So they must lose in lots of blowouts. They are 10th in runs scored in the NL and 11th in ERA, so it seems amazing that they have a .500 record. They expected Corbin Burnes back this season after elbow surgery, but similar to Justin Steele, he had a major setback in his rehab, and is now expected to be out until September. Corbin Carroll has been great, but the rest of the offense has not been able to step up. And a surprisingly good season from Michael Soroka has been interrupted by injury. It might be another year before they will be contenders for the playoffs.
  
• Cincinnati Reds: 37-40, -3 WC Standings, -47 run differential
  Even when the Reds were leading the Central early in the season, they had a poor run differential, and it’s only gotten worse. They are 12th in runs scored and 13th in ERA in the NL, so it is almost amazing that they are still contenders for the playoffs. They grabbed the final Wild Card sport last season, and when they get Hunter Greene back, perhaps they’ll be able to make a charge again this year.
  
• New York Mets: 34-43, -6 WC Standings, -31 run differential
  I probably should not include the Mets here, but with the high expectations to start the last two seasons, perhaps they have turn things around. Their pitching has been OK, as they are 7th in ERA. But the offense is 14th in runs scored. Juan Soto is still a stud, with a 168 wRC+, but he’s had trouble hitting with runners in scoring position (177 wRC+ with the bases empty, 95 with RISP). And Lindor, Robert Jr., Bichette, Vientos, Semian and Baty are all have a wRC+ below 100, meaning they’ve performed below league average. The Cubs have 4 game against them this week, so they will see first-hand whether the Mets appear to be a team that can turn it around.

So, except for the Phillies, there is no team that should really scare the CUbs in this list. But based on the way they played in May, no team should really be afraid of the Cubs, either.

Here are some things I think need to happen for the Cubs to get one of the 3 Wild Card spots:

• Hit better with Runners in Scoring position. This has been a constant theme of failure through the season, but we are still waiting for things to turn around. The team is 2nd in the NL in wRC+, but 6th in runs scored.
• Solid starts from Boyd, Cabrera and Imanaga. Health will be a major factor for these three. We can’t expect Brown and Assad to pitch as well as they have – although Brown’s run of good work has been 7 of 8 starts – so ther other members of the rotation need to be solid. Imanaga has shown signs, but Cabrera has been hurt and then bad and Boyd has just been hurt.
• Better hitting from Bregman, Swanson, Hoerner and Ballesteros (when he comes back from AA). PCA is on fire, and Suzuki has finally started to warm up. The Cubs need the offense to carry this team but with no superstars beyond PCA, it needs to be a consistent contribution for 1 through 9 in the batting order.
• The bullpen needs to find another guys from the scrap heap who can get outs. With Palencia and Harvey out and Maton looking very shaky, there are not many reliable arms. Thielbar has had a few very bad games, and Webb, after a great stretch, has struggled in a his last few. And I don’t think Trent Thornton, Ethan Roberts or Gavin Hollowell are the solution. Milner and Rolison have given the Cubs a couple solid left-handers, and perhaps Colin Rea can provide some help if he moves to the bullpen, but more help is needed.