RISP is the bane of the Cubs’ existance

It is not secret the the Cubs have been awful with runners in scoring position this season. They are dead last in MLB, with a .214 batting average in those situations.

Typically, teams do better when runners are on or in scoring position than when the bases are empty. There are only 8 teams that have a lower batting average with RISP as opposed to bases empty, with the Pirates and Cubs tied for the two worst teams at a -0.021 batting average, and the Reds close on their heels at -0.020. The Cardinals are also one of the eight teams that are worse with runners in scoring position, but unsurprisingly, the Brewers are the only team in the L Central who does not have this issue, as they are 4th highest in the majors at a +0.043 batting average with RISP compared to no one on base.

This has certainly impacted the Cubs ability to score runs. It is impossible to determine exactly how many runs they lost just based on batting average, as teams can score runs in ways other than getting a hit. So let’s look at the league average of the ratio of plate appearances to runs in these situations.

In 21,155 plate appearances with runners on base, teams have scores 7,057 runs. That would put the ratio at 1 run for every 2.9977 plate appearances. So if the Cubs were scoring runs at the league average rate when runners were in scoring position, they should have 275 runs. Instead, they have 244 runs, putting them at a -33 run for the season.

If you plug that into the Pythagorean Expectation formula, it comes up with just over 3 additional wins. This would put the Cubs at the top of the Wild Card race, at 41-33. That looks much better than the 38-36 record they currently own.

One weird stat is that the Cubs are second in the league in walks with runners in scoring position at 101. But only 7 of those have come with the bases loaded, which would produce a run. And while this would typically lead to bigger innings, the Cubs have just not cashed in on these extra base runners.

While it is obvious that the numbers are terrible, the million dollar question is: why? What is causing a group of mostly veteran hitters to do so poorly in the most important situations? And the second big question is: can they turn it around?

So what is happening when runners are in scoring position, and why they can’t get hits.

1. BABIP – the Cubs BABIP with RISP is only .257, second worst in the league. Compare this to their soft contact percentage, where they are 16th in the league. But their line drive percentage is only 16.3%, worst in MLB as compared to 20.6% with the bases empty. Their 38% ground ball percentage with the bases empty goes up to 43.2% with RISP.
2. SO% – They are 8th worst in the league in strikeout percentage with runners in scoring position, at 22.6%. With the bases empty, that number is 22.1% – so it really does not appear to be that much of a difference.
3. Double Plays – They are 5th highest in the league at hitting into double plays with runners in scoring position at 20, although when compared to plate appearances they are 10th.

So, they are striking out a bit more with runners in scoring position, and hitting a few more double plays that the average team. But the real issues seems to be their inability to hit line drives when runners are on.

Could this be psychological? Maybe. Could it be bad luck? Maybe. Could it be both? Maybe.

It is certainly conceivable that they could turn these numbers around. Here are the historic and current RISP numbers for the Cubs hitters

Player	Career RISP	2026 RISP	Difference
Michael Conforto	0.252	0.333	0.081
Michael Busch	0.270	0.320	0.050
Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.272	0.308	0.036
Carson Kelly	0.253	0.286	0.033
Matt Shaw	0.175	0.179	0.004
Moises Ballesteros	0.264	0.229	-0.035
Ian Happ	0.253	0.179	-0.074
Nico Hoerner	0.307	0.224	-0.083
Dansby Swanson	0.251	0.141	-0.110
Seiya Suzuki	0.263	0.152	-0.111
Alex Bregman	0.282	0.169	-0.113

So Conforto, in limited at bats is doing better then his career numbers. And Busch, PCA and Kelly are doing moderately better. But Happ, Hoerner, Swanson, Suzuki and Bregman are all doing much worse this season as compared to the rest of their career. It seems mind-boggling.

I continue to believe that these numbers will get better, but with the continued injuries to the pitching staff, the Cubs will absolutely need to turn them around to stay competitive in a very crowded wild-card race.