Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 6/14

A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.

I’m a few days late to my update on the rotation, and that’s probably a good thing, as starters for the Cubs have been much better over the last 4 games. The has been yet another injury, with Jameson Taillon going down. And then we got news that Matthew Boyd’s return has been delayed due to shoulder soreness. The hits just keep on coming.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
I may need to eliminate this category, as there is no one even remotely close.

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

Ben Brown – Brown just keeps on moving up. He was not as sharp as he had been in yesterday’s outing, but closed down a couple innings with runners on base, and allowed a grand total of 1 run. In fact, he’s allowed more that one run in only 1 of his 7 starts, when he gave up 3 in 5 innings to the Brewers. His ERA is down to 1.74, and his HR/9 is down to 0.15, which is a stark outlier to the rest of this pitching staff. The only concern at this point is how deep he can go into games, especially with the strikeout being a big part of the arsenal. His max number of pitches thrown was 87, and he’s been between 82 and 87 for his last 5 starts. It will be interesting to see if Counsell is ready to allow him to go deeper into games, perhaps up to 100 pitches, as this has not been a rotation that has provided much cover to the bullpen.

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Shota Imanaga – In every game he starts, you wonder whether we are going to see good Shota or bad Shota. His peripheral numbers with velocity and movement have looked better this season, and his strikeouts per 9 is back up to 9.00, as compared 9.03 in ’23 but only 7.28 last year. But the home runs allowed just keep on coming. His HR/9 rate is brutal: 1.89, which is just below the 1.93 from last year. In 2024 that number was 1.40. His walk rate is also up this season, to 2.33 BB/9 as compared to 1.45 in 2024 and 1.62 last season. If he could somehow limit the walks and home runs, he could be the Ace of the staff. But that seems to be a very big ask.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent

Javier Assad – Speaking of Dr. Jeckyll and Mr. Hyde, Javier Assad has had a very weird year. He’s pitched extremely well in his latest call-up: with 6.1 innings of 1-hit, 1-walk, shutout relief when Taillon went down, followed by a 6 inning, 3-hit, 1-walk, shutout start. Both were against the Giants, so hopefully this dominance is not limited to facing that one team. But his ERA is still at 3.99 due to two games: a start on 4/13 against the Phillies and a relief appearance against the Dodgers on 4/25. If Assad can be a little more consistent, he will move up in these rankings. Here are the starts breakdowns of those games versus his 8 other appearances:

Games	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	ERA
4/13 & 4/25	6.2	18	15	4	5	20.25
All others	31.2	12	2	5	19	0.57

Edward Cabrera – The good news is that his velocity and spin rate are up after he retuned from his brief injury stint due to blister issues. The bad news is that he’s given up 5 homers in on 9 innings over those first two starts back. It makes him fit in very well with this Cubs’ pitching staff, but will not be helpful if the Cubs want to win baseball games.

Colin Rea – In his second straight season of stepping in from the bullpen to the rotation, Colin Rea doing just OK. His ERA is over 5, and he’s given up 3 or more runs in 6 of his 11 starts, including games where he’s given up 5, 6 and 7.

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
Jordan Wicks went back to Iowa, so this tier is empty for the moment.

Moved to Bullpen:

No one as of this update

Injured Or Sent to Minors:

Jameson Taillon – Look, I really like Taillon, and he one one of the big reasons the Cubs won a playoff series last year. But honestly, I’m not as devastated by his injury as I am for the other starters – especially with the return of Cabrera and the solid showing by Assad. His ERA is 5.19, and he is leading MLB in home runs allowed. I believe Javier Assad can do better. Maybe with some time off and rest, Taillon can come back a bit stronger, and give the Cubs something in the 2nd half of the season, but that remains to be seen. Of course, the delay in Boyd’s return thins out the depth of the starters.

Matthew Boyd – More bad news on the injury front, as Boyd developed shoulder soreness while recovering from his minor knee surgery. Hopefully it won’t be too much of a delay,

Jordan Wicks – Is that the final chance for Jordan Wicks? Probably not, but he’s not done anything at the major league level since his debut season to indicate he will be a contributor.

Justin Steele – No updates, other than seeing him play basketball. https://x.com/J_Steele21/status/2065326347225071851?s=20

Cade Horton – The Cubs really seemed to have absorbed the blow of the loss of Horton in the first month of the season, but it would be really nice to have a guy who can shut another team out when the team really needs a win.