A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. The ratings are based around how much each reliever causes my hair to turn grey or even fall out.
With the terrible losing streak finally over, I thought it would be a good time to see just how bad things have been for the bullpen over this bad stretch. I decided to take a look right after the end of the 10-game win streak.
From May 9th until today, the Cubs relievers were 10th in the MLB in ERA at 2.95, 15th in WHIP at 1.25 and 19th in FIP. Their LOB% was 85.2%, which was 2nd in the majors during that time period, meaning they were allowing a fair number of baserunners, but stranding quite a few of them.
Meanwhile, Cubs starters were 29th in ERA at 7.07 during that stretch and batter were 28th in wRC+. So basically, the bullpen was not the issue during this terrible stretch.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
A couple of players are close, but no one at the moment
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Daniel Palencia– He has been ok since his return, giving up a couple of home runs over 7 appearances, with only one game in those 7 where he did not allow a baserunner. The home run he allowed to the Rangers on May 10th was costly, as it turned a 1-run deficit into a 3-run deficit. But he has had only two save opportunities since his return, and converted both of those.
–Hoby Milner– Despite giving up a couple of runs in the 12-1 loss to the Pirates, Milner continue to look good, getting lots of work.
–Caleb Thielbar– He’s back from injury since my last update, and has been fine in 3 outings. One blemish was a run allowed to the Astros on the 24th of may, that allowed them to extend their lead and make a comeback less likely.
–Jacob Webb– It is the very rare, double-jump in the tier rankings for Webb, as it seems like he’s turned a corner, and is providing what the Cubs were looking for when they signed him. Why have the results been so much better? I’m not really sure But his March/April versus May splits are like night and day:
| Monthly | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar/Apr | 10.13 | 5.06 | 2.00 | 2.53 | .356 | 2.06 | .419 | 6.16 |
| May | 12.46 | 1.38 | 9.00 | 0.00 | .167 | 0.77 | .267 | 0.76 |
Webb has earned more high-leverage spots, and I actually feel good when he enters the game, unlike early this season. It is really proof that bullpen effectiveness can be volatile, and also that I should not be making roster decisions, as I probably would have DFA’d him in April.
Some gray hair (medium confidence)
–Ryan Rolison– I’m still not quite sure what to make of Ryan Rolison, and whether he will be like Drew Pomeranz, and still in the bullpen through the course of the season. Or, when the Cubs have a little more health in the pitching staff, will he go back to Iowa. He gave up a couple of home runs in the White Sox series, including the game-losing hit in what could have been an amazing comeback on May 17th. His FIP is higher than his ERA, meaning he’s been a bit lucky. And his 1.62 HR/9 is not a good number – although it’s actually better than Palencia this year. I think we need to wait and see on Rolison.
–Phil Maton– Maton has been better, although the walk rate is still concerning. It is sitting at about 12.3% for the season, which would be the worst in his long career. He allowed big home runs to the Braves on May 13th and the White Sox on the 17th which were very damaging.
–Ethan Roberts– Roberts has not been battling any vents, but has done well in his return to the majors, and has a 0.64 ERA so far this season. The concern about Roberts is his K-BB% ratio, which is extremely low at 2.0%. A reliever who can’t get strikeouts is typically going to run into trouble, and his .156 BABIP allowed is probably not sustainable. Which is why, despite his ERA, he is still pretty low in my reliever rankings, and he is still a candidate to get sent down at some point.
–Trent Thornton– We have now seen half of the guys who I wrote about before the season as long-shots to see any time with the Cubs in 2026. But Thornton was the guy I felt had the best chance. He’s actually been pretty decent, with a 2.79 ERA over 8 games. He has had a bit of a problem with the long ball (which has been a major issue for the whole pitching staff), giving up 2 in those 8 games, including one to weak hitting Henry Davis is a big spot against the Pirates on the 25th, leading to a 2-1 loss, and ruining a great outing from Ben Brown (although that was really on the offense). I almost stuck him in the low confidence tier, just because of that home run, but decided it would not be fair.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
Moved to the Rotation
–Ben Brown– The success story of the season
–Jordan Wicks– Not a success story
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Javier Assad– Sent to AAA, and surprisingly not called up when Edward Cabrera went on the IL. I would guess he might go back to the rotation to replace Wicks, but we’ll see.
–Ty Blach– In AAA – I missed the Ty Blach era, which consisted of in inning against the Brewers to mop up a 9-3 loss. He did strike out 2 in that inning. His 4.25 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in Iowa would suggest that this one a one-time, emergency appearance.
–Gavin Hollowell– In AAA – Hollowell came out this spring with a couple of dominant perfromances, but . The Cubs have been keeping him on the 40-man roster for the last few season. There were several times when a roster spot was needed that I thought Hollowell might be DFA’d, but it has not happened yet. He got another chance this season, but it was brief and not a success, as he gave up 2 hits, a home run and walked 4 in an inning a 2/3rds. How he only gave up 2 home runs with that whole mess is kind of a miracle. He has been very good in Iowa, with a 1.32 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, so perhaps the Cubs will give him another chance in the majors this season, especially ahead of players like Blach, Corbin Martin, Charlie Barnes and Luke Little.
–Corbin Martin– In AAA – The Corbin Martin era in Chicago was pretty short, as Craig Counsell lost confidence in him pretty quickly, with a zero-out, 3-runs-allowed performance being the catalyst for heading back to Iowa. He’s allowed 2 runs over 4.1 innings there, but he has logged 8 strikeouts. There certainly is the chance he will come back up at some point this season.
–Hunter Harvey– 60-day IL – It can’t come as a shock that a guy who has been an injury risk his whole career is now on the 60-day IL and shut down after suffering a setback in his rehab. The Cubs apparently tried to be very careful at managing his workload, giving him only single innings, and never two days in a row. But that was not sufficient to keep him healthy. Who knows if he will pitch again this season. He was the primary guy besides Palencia who could bring elite velocity out of the pen, so that part of his game will be missed.
–Riley Martin– 15-day IL- He should be back in mid to late June, and I’d guess he’d take the spot of Roberts, Rolison or Thornton. Although, he may get a spot to replace someone else who gets injured.
–Porter Hodge – 60-day IL – Out for 2026
–Charlie Barnes– In AAA
–Luke Little– In AAA – He has a 3.20 ERA, but a 1.58 WHIP. Still has time to improve his command and stick in the majors, but the window is closing – at least as a Cub.
–Yacksel Rios– In AAA – The most surprising Cub of the season, he cleared waivers, and went back to Iowa. Fun fact: Rios, Blach and Vince Velsquez have a combined 0.00 ERA for the Cubs this season.
–Vince Velasquez– In AAA – See above.
Cubs in 7 
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