A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.
It’s been about a month since I took a look at the rotation, and man, have things gotten bleak. When players are really pressing, there are two great ways to break out of a losing streak: get a shutout by the pitching staff or have the offense break out to double-figure runs. The shutout option just does not seem possible at this point.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
I may need to eliminate this category, as there is no one even remotely close.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
And also no one in this category.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Ben Brown – It has really come to this. A guy who was in my near replace in the rotation all of last season, and had just started to move up the ranks of bullpen confidence, is now my most trusted starting pitcher. He really has been the one good story during this catastrophe of a losing streak. He’s had 3 excellent starts in 4 games (a 5 inning, 3 run, 7-hit performance against the Brewers is the only outlier) allowing only 1 run over 14 innings. The was lots of talk than he needed a 4th pitch, and the sinker that he added has been a revelation, with opposing hitters only able to manage a .504 OPS against that pitch. And even his 4-seamer, which is his least effective pitch as far as OPS against (.672) is doing much better than the .907 OPS he allowed in 2025. If the Cubs can manage to get some of their starters back and their offense can break out of this massive slump, Brown’s improvement could be a key to doing something positive in the playoffs. But as of now, that’s a big if
Shota Imanaga – Imanaga had been on a great run early in the season, allow 1 or fewer runs in 6 of 8 starts. He allowed 2 over 7 innings in a tough loss to Atlanta. But his last two starts have been disastrous. 8 runs over 4.1 innings and 2 homers against the Brewers. Then 7 runs in 6 innings and 3 home runs against the Astros. The Christian Walker 3-run home run he allowed in that game really took the wind out of the Cubs’ sails, and opened the possibility of a really long losing streak up. His ERA has catapulted from 2.32 all the way to 4.04. I’m really not sure what has gone wrong over those two starts, but he has looked like the guys the Cubs could not trust down the stretch last season, as opposed to the guys who had appeared to turn things around. Another bad start, and he will move down a tier.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Colin Rea – Rea is right on the cusp of this category. But he’s really a number 5 starter or swingman, and the Cubs already have about 3 other guys who also fit that bill. He can certainly climb up to the next tier with a couple of good starts. But allowing 3 runs over 7 innings, which he provided in his last outing, is probably the ceiling of what he can provide.
Jameson Taillon – Two bad starts in a row have Taillon at the cusp of being a replacement candidate. He’s pitching today to try to put an end to the 10-game losing streak, and I am not confident. As a 5th starter who is there to eat up some innings and hold the opposing team down enough so that the offense can win the game, Taillon is a good fit. But with the current rotation of 4th, 5th and below replacement level starters, Taillon’s weaknesses are just accentuated.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
Jordan Wicks – Well, the Cubs took a swing by promoting Wicks to replace Edward Cabrera, and it went about a poorly as could have possibly been expected. I’m a bit surprised they chose Wicks over Assad, but he had been successful in his last 3 starts in Iowa. But for a team needing to jump out to a lead, serving up 5 runs in the first inning was the last thing they needed. He settled down a little, allowing only (only?) 3 more runs over his next 3 innings. But 8 runs in 4.1 is just not even close to competitive. Will he get any more chances? I’d doubt it, but if the Cubs did not bring up Assad to replace Cabrera in the first place, will they do it now?
Moved to Bullpen:
Injured Or Sent to Minors:
Edward Cabrera – Losing Cabrera to a blister injury didn’t seem a bad as it probably should have, as he was not effective in his last several starts. But after seeing Joran Wicks take his place, anything he could provide would be better. He as a -0.2 WAR and 4.00 ERA this season, and Cubs writers have pointed out that his stuff just does not look the same. Maybe a couple weeks off can reset him a bit, but he’s looking more like a 4th or 5th starter (when healthy) as opposed to a top of the rotation guy.
Matthew Boyd – If the rest of the rotation were healthy, losing Matthew Boyd for a month might not seem like that bad of an idea, as it conceivably could prevent him from losing steam at the end of the season. But with Horton done for the year, Steele delayed in his return and Cabrera also out, losing Boyd has been a disaster. His results were not great so far, but he had been pitching in some bad luck. He should be back toward the end of June, and boy do the Cubs need him.
Javier Assad – Technically, he was in the bullpen when he was sent back to Iowa. But I’m including him here, as I expect he will be called back up to replace Jordan Wicks.
Justin Steele – Hopefully he comes back after the All-Star break.
Cade Horton – Gone this season. Probably gone most of next season. The Cubs front office will need to do something to account for his loss.
Cubs in 7 
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