A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. The ratings are based around how much each reliever causes my hair to turn grey or even fall out.
A couple more injuries in the last two weeks, with Caleb Thielbar injuring his hamstring and Riley Martin suffered a flexor strain. The good news is that we saw the return of Phil Maton and Daniel Palencia. And there are several guys at Iowa who are healthy again – at least at the moment.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
A couple of players are close, but no one at the moment
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Daniel Palencia– Palencia is back, although outside of a rehab appearance for Iowa, he hasn’t pitched yet. He would’ve come in in the 10th inning against the Reds, but Michael Conforto came through with a walk-off homer in the 9th. He was hitting 102 on the gun in his rehab appearance, so he appears to be recovered.
–Hoby Milner– He continues to be solid, and possibly the most dependable member of the bullpen. His allowed runs in two straight appearances, giving up a couple of walks in one game and a solo home run to Shohei Ohtani in another. But he’s only allowed 1 hit over his last 4 games.
–Ben Brown– This is the second straight time I’ve moved Brown up, but he’s definitely earned it, even after giving up a run last night. In the Cubs most recent run of games, he got out of a bases loaded jam he inherited, giving up only one run. And he got a 6-out save. The run he gave up against the Reds was due to a leadoff walk, stolen base, single sequence, but then he got out of the inning without further damage. And before that run, he had gone 7 games without giving up an earned run. Brown had a stretch in 2025 where he gave up an earned run in 12 straight games, only 5 of them starts. So we’ve definitely seen a new and improved Ben Brown this year.
Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Phil Maton– He had a bumpy return from injury, giving up 3 hits and 2 runs in his first game back. He’s looked better in the next 3, although he did load the based against the Diamondbacks giving up a hit, hit by pitch and walk, before escaping the inning. His ERA is still sky high at 9.82, but I’m still giving him the benefit of the doubt for now.
–Ryan Rolison– Rolison has been great except for one game. He had 3 huge innings against the Dodgers in a comeback victory, and then 2 perfect innings against the Padres in a win. The hiccup was a walk and a double before giving up a 3-run home run to Geraldo Perdomo in a game it seemed like Cubs had well in hand – but were able to hold on. After another single, he struck out the last two hitters of the inning to escape the jam. In his latest outing he had a strong inning against the Reds to keep it at a 1-run deficit, in a game the Cubs won in the 9th. I should probably have him above Maton, but I still don’t trust Rolison after only 5 appearances.
–Javier Assad– He joins the bullpen after a stint in the rotation. Assad has pitched in only 5 games so far, and it has been a roller coaster:
1. Start – 5 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 3 SO
2. Start – 4.1 IP, 9 R, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 SO
3. Start – 5.2 IP, 3H, 1R, 1 BB, 3 SO
4. Relief – 1 IP, 0 R, 0H 0 BB (with a designated runner in the 10th inning)
5. Relief – 2.1 IP, 7H, 6R, 2 BB, 2 SO
His ERA is 7.58, FIP is 4.98 and WHIP is 1.47. Through his career, he has been almost magical in stranding runners he had left on base. But this season, he has either been lights out, or has given up tons of runs. He may be headed for Iowa when Caleb Thielbar comes back.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Jacob Webb– With Maton and Palencia back, I’m not sure how many high-leverage opportunities Webb will get. But after allowing an insurance run on a home run against the Padres, he did get a 2-inning save, allowing a walk and striking out 3 in the game where the Cubs only had a 1-run lead. His BABIP against was at .382, so some of the damage against him may be bad luck. If that’s true, and he can have a few more good outings, he has a chance to climb in my rankings.
–Corbin Martin– There was a brief time where it looked like Martin might be a trustworthy guy in the Cubs bullpen. He pitched 4 innings in 4 games where he gave up only 1 hit and 1 walk. But then he walked the bases loaded in a close game, and had to be saved by Ben Brown to limit the damage to 1 run. And in a recent game when closing out a 6-run lead, he walked the leadoff hitter, and then gave up a 2-out, 2-run homer. Ethan Roberts, Gavin Hollowell, Trent Thornton and Jordan Wicks are all ready to be called up, and Caleb Thielbar is getting closer. Assuming no more injuries for a while (which is probably a bad assumption) Martin will really need to be effective if he’s going to stay with the Cubs.
No hair left (no confidence)
No one
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Caleb Thielbar– Thielbar became the closer when Palencia, Maton and Harvey went out, and then he immediately injured his hamstring. The Cubs are hoping he will be back when eligible, which would be late this week. I would not be shocked if they gave him a game or two in Iowa. Javier Assad is probably the guy who will be sent down, unless they decided to DFA Rolison, Martin or Webb.
–Hunter Harvey– Harvey has started his throwing routine as part of his injury rehab, with a bullpen session being his next step. I’m just not sure that the Cubs can count on Harvey staying healthy for any extended stretch of time this season. How they manage his workload will be very interesting, especially if it looks like they might make it back to the playoffs.
–Riley Martin– Martin had looked very good in his brief time, with a 2.16 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 8.1 innings. Hopefully his rehab goes well, as he will be needed later this season.
–Ethan Roberts – Roberts is healthy again after cutting his hand in a goofy injury. In his 4 appearances in Iowa, he has 4 innings, allowing 2 hits, 2 walks and 1 run – a solo homer. After Thielbar, he would be the next man up if there is any injury.
–Porter Hodge – Out for 2026
–Jordan Wicks– Unlike Roberts, Jordan Wicks has really struggled at AAA. All the talk about his improved physique and refined pitches have not shown on the field, as he has a 9.53 ERA and 2.29 WHIP in 4 starts – where he’s only logged 11.1 innings. He did get injured in the Spring, and may be working though some things, but at this point, he does not appear to be a viable option to be promoted.
–Charlie Barnes– Barnes has been up and down twice, spending 3 days total in the majors. He ate up 3 innings in a 13-7 loss, giving up 3 runs, 4 hits, 1 HBP and 3 walks. The only way he’ll be back would be a ton of injuries – which we’ve already seen happen.
–Luke Little– I ad high hopes for Little, but he has squandered every chance he gotten in the majors. He allowed a homer in his only major league appearance this season. And he has more walks (14) than strikeouts (12) in the minors, which is a huge red flag.
Released/DFA’d
–Yacksel Rios– I honestly had never heard of Rios. He is the 2nd guy I did not even had on my radar in the Spring (with Charlie Barnes) who has already been on the roster. He actually did well in his only appearance, with a solid 1.2 innings against the Dodgers in a 6-0 loss. I’m guessing the Cubs will try to bring him back to Iowa if he clears waivers.
Cubs in 7 
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