A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational.
The Cubs have done an excellent job of pivoting with their bullpen over the past few seasons, to replace injured or under-performing players with replacements that gave the team a set of players that fans – and more importantly, Craig Counsell – could feel confident in.
But this season has been insane, with injuries ravaging the bullpen in the first few weeks. The Horton injury required Rea to move to the rotation, and three guys that were going to be depended on as high leverage – Palencia, Maron and Harvey – are all injured. That leaves only half of the pitchers who were part of the initial eight member of the bullpen – Thielbar, Milner, Webb and Brown – are still standing. And one of the replacements, Ethan Roberts – hurt himself with a medicine ball and a vent. So we’ve seen several replacements come up, and so far, it has not been a disaster.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
A couple of players are close, but no one at the moment
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Caleb Thielbar– When Thielbar was signed before the 2025 season, I’d did not ever expect him to be the team’s closer. But here were are. The emergence of Hoby Milner and Riley Martin as reliable lefties out of the pen has allowed Thielbar to move out of his setup role. He is one of the few Cubs relievers with a long track record of success, which may be why Counsell has selected him as the temporary closer.
Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Hoby Milner– after giving up a home run in his second appearance, Milner has not allowed a run since over 7.1 innings. And he has seen his ERA drop to 1.93. The crazy thing is that he has only one strikeout this season, putting his FIP at 4.95. So, I’m not sure whether this early success is sustainable.
–Riley Martin– Martin pitched really well at Iowa in 2025, but never got a chance in Chicago. He had to be added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, even though he was 27-years-old (and he’s now 28). Typically, moving a minor league player to the 40-man is reserved for someone who is a young, highly regarded prospect, like Pedro Ramirez. But Martin was the first reliever brought up from Iowa this season, and he’s been excellent in his first 6.1 innings in the majors, allowing no runs, 4 hits, no walks and 7 strikeouts. Injury in sport can open the door of opportunity, and so far, Martin is taking advantage of it.
–Ben Brown– I’m probably crazy for moving Brown up from the low-confidence level. But his ERA is 2.70 and FIP is 3.19. The defense let him down in his last appearance, costing hm an unearned run. But he has gone 2 innings in each of his last 5 games, not allowing an earned run in the last 3. As the Cubs deal with all the bullpen injuries, getting 2 innings every few games from Brown will be a key.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Jacob Webb– Webb had a good game yesterday, going 1.1 perfect innings. But he has allowed baserunners in 8 of 10 appearances, and his WHIP is 1.89. If there were no so many injuries, I’d think he would be a candidate for a DFA. But the Cubs were forced to bring up a non-roster guy who had barely pitched in the minors, so there is no way they would cut ties with a healthy right-handed pitcher.
–Ryan Rolison– He gave up 1 hit in his only inning. I think either he or Luke Little gets sent back down when Matthew Boyd is activated, as the Cubs do not need more than 4 left-handed relievers. But I am not doing very well with some of my predictions.
–Corbin Martin– He was injured coming out of Spring Training, and only made 2 appearances at Iowa before he was promoted. Cade Horton had not yet been transferred to the 60-day IL, so that move allowed Martin to join the 40-man roster. With the lack of right-handed pitchers in the Cubs’ bullpen, I think he might actually stick around, but we will see. Here was a write-up of Martin I did before the season: https://cubsin7.blog/2026/02/12/searching-for-brad-keller-part-3-corbin-martin/
No hair left (no confidence)
–Luke Little– It is telling that a non-roster guy who pitched 1 inning for the Cubs is higher on this list than Luke Little. But I just have no confidence when he comes into a game. He was allowed to close out an 11-2 blowout win over Philadelphia, but gave up 2 hits including a solo home run to Bryce Harper. He managed to avoid walking or hitting anyone. But he just doesn’t have enough command to be a big league contributor, in my opinion. I’d guess he’ll be the one chose to be sent down on Wednesday, as we might not see him again unless one of the first two games in this series is a blowout.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Daniel Palencia– This really hurts, and the fact that it is an oblique injury is scary. He looks great in his first few appearances after a superb run in the WBC. But his return is TBD, and although the injury has been described as “minor” these injuries can linger.
–Phil Maton– Maton looked bad in his last 3 appearances, giving up 2 earned runs in each. So it was not too surprising to see him head to the IL. He will face live BP on the 21st, and is set to be back late this month or early next month. Hopefully getting healthy will be bring back the Maton we were expecting.
–Hunter Harvey– This injury is even less shocking, as Harvey has been a walking IL-stint for the last two seasons – pitching in a grand total of 18 games. He was also struggling in his early appearances with the Cubs, allowing a hit in every appearance, including 2 homers on April 3rd. His stuff, including a high 90s fastball, is something that is so tantalizing (and the reason the Cubs gave him $6 million for this season. But will he get $600k per appearance (10 games) or $120K per appearance (50 games)? Probably something in the middle.
–Ethan Roberts – See above for the goofy details of his injury. Fortunately, it was not a serious injury, and I’d guess he’ll be back after a minimum IL stint, perhaps after a couple of rehab appearances. He looked very good in his 3 games, and it was a bummer for both he and the Cubs that he got hurt.
–Porter Hodge – Hodge is out for 2026 and at least part of 2027 after elbow surgery. He has not been the same guy since 2024, so maybe he can resurrect his career after a long rehab.
–Jordan Wicks– Wicks just returned from injury for some rehab starts in the minors. The fact that the Cubs have so many left-handers in the bullpen might play against him. But he does provide depth in case there are even more injuries.
Released/DFA’d
None yet
Cubs in 7 
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