A continuing series examining past Cubs trades, and whether they moved the needle to creating a winning team.
The Epstein/Hoyer Contention trades – Year 2
After a long journey, they finally made it. 2016 was supposed to be the year, and it certainly turned out to be. The trades in the off-season were minimal, with the most impactful being the deal to get rid of Starlin Castro. But one of the biggest in-season trades since the Sutcliffe trade in 1984 was on its way. And there were some other very important deals that helped solidify the roster for their World Series run.
Here are some of the previous entries in this series:
- Introduction
- Epstein/Hoyer rebuild year 1 (2012)
- Epstein/Hoyer rebuild year 2 (2013)
- Epstein/Hoyer rebuild year 3 (2014)
- Epstein/Hoyer Contention year 1 (2015)
2016 In-Season Trades
Date: June 9, 2016
Cubs trade: Arismendy Alcantara (-0.3)
Athletics trade: Chris Coghlan (0.7)
WAR comparison: Cubs 0.7 – Mariners -0.3 (Cubs +1.0)
Intangibles: Coghlan was 0-8 with a walk in the 2016 postseason, but he did help the team in the regular season after Kyle Schwarber was lost early.
Analysis: With the Schwarber injury and then and injury to Jorge Soler, the Cubs needed another left-handed bat on the roster to play the outfield. Coghlan, who had been sent to the A’s in the off-season after the Fowler signing, was seen as a very good fit, and the A’s were very willing to part with him. Alcantara did very little for the A’s, and was out of the league after a season with the Reds.
https://www.espn.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/38991/rapid-react-cubs-re-acquire-chris-coghlan
This is a good excuse to show Coghlan jumping over Yadi Molina (Disclaimer: it was not in 2016 and did not take place when he was a member of the Cubs)
Date: July 20, 2016
Cubs trade: Paul Blackburn (0.0) and Daniel Vogelbach (-0.2)
Mariners trade: Mike Montgomery (3.3) and Jordan Pries (minors)
WAR comparison: Cubs 3.3 – Mariners -0.2 (Cubs +3.5)
Intangibles: The Mariners flipped Blackburn to the A’s for Danny Valencia, who had a 1.2 WAR for Seattle in 2017. Meanwhile, Blackburn was pretty good for the A’s, starting 77 games over 8 seasons, compiling a 3.4 WAR. Montgomery got the last out for the Cubs in their only World Series victory in 113 years, so the intangibles are off the chart. He was very good in the NLDS and World Series in 2016, but was terrible in the 2017 postseason. Montgomery was traded to the Royals for Martin Maldanado (who played in only 4 games, but managed to have a -0.4 WAR), who was traded to the A’s for Tony Kemp (-0.1 WAR in 44 games), who was traded back to the A’s for Alfonso Rivas (0.4 WAR in 1119 games over 2 season) who ultimately was released.
Analysis: Vogelbach was a power bat but defensive liability, only able to play first base. With Anthony Rizzo there, and no DH in the NL, there was no way he would get regular playing time in Chicago. He looked like a great get for Seattle when he hit 30 homers in 2019, but slumped to only 6 home runs across 3 teams in 2020 (although 4 of them occurred at the end of the year in Milwaukee, where he slashed .328/.418./569 in 67 plate appearances after being picked up off waivers). Montgomery was supposed to fill a starter role as Lester and Lackey reached the end of their careers, and he did well in 2017 with a 3.338 ERA in 44 games (14 starts). He was back in the bullpen in 2019, and after some complaints, was shipped to Kansas City, where he was done after 2020.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17115768/chicago-cubs-acquire-mike-montgomery-seattle-mariners
Date: July 25, 2016
Cubs trade: Gleyber Torres (15.8), Billy McKinney (-0.1), Adam Warren (2.4), Rashad Crawford (minors)
Yankees trade: Aroldis Chapman (1.2)
WAR comparison: Yankees 18.1 – Cubs 1.2 (Cubs -16.9)
Intangibles: This is the ultimate “you have to look at the intangibles” trade. On first glance, it looks horrible for the Cubs, giving up their best prospect for a rental relief pitcher. But without Chapman, the Cubs almost certainly would not have won the World Series. The Game 7 home run to Rajai Davis gets lots of attention, but I put ore of the blame on Joe Maddon, and his overuse of Chapman in that series. Torres had his own success in the postseason for the Yankees, as they made it in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024. He was particularly good in an ALDS sweep of the Twins in 2019 (1.378 OPS), in the ALCS loss to the Astros that same year (.933 OPS), in a two game sweep of Cleveland in 2020 (1.943 OPS), plus a loss in the ALDS to Tampa also in 2020 (.950 OPS), and in the ALDS (.867 OPS) and ALCS (.809 OPS) in 2024. His overall playoff slash line of .267/.359/.795 is beyond respectibile. McKinney did very little for the Yankees, but was traded to the Blue Jays for J.A. Happ, who provided a 4.4 WAR over 3 seasons.
Analysis: With a somewhat shaky Hector Rondon as the closer, the Cubs decided they needed an upgrade. And getting Aroldis Chapman was not cheap. He also had some significant character issues that were brought up at the time, and have followed Chapman through his many stops in the majors. Here is an article from Deadspin that goes over why charges were never filed in the incident: https://deadspin.com/why-prosecutors-didnt-bring-charges-against-aroldis-cha-1754305230/
From a baseball perspective, Chapman was excellent for the Cubs, logging a 1.2 WAR in only 28 appearances, with a 1.01 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in the regular season. He pitched in 13 of the Cubs 17 postseason games averaging more than an inning per appearance. With the extensive use, his ERA suffered, but he did log 4 saves (including 3 in the NLDS). But his work in Game 7 to keep things tied after the Davis home run was quite the accompishment. The Cubs had to replace Chapman, who wnet back to the Yankees, trading for Wade Davis before 2017.
Torres was the key to the trade, and mashed 38 homers in his 2nd season in 2019 at the age of 22. But while he continued to play well for the Yankees, he never really became the superstar they expected after that year, averaging about 2.5 WAR per season, if you exclude the Covid year. His defense also got worse, and he moved from shortstop to second base. McKinney, who the Cubs had gotten in the Addison Russell trade, bounced around several teams after leaving the Blue Jays, including back to the Yankees, and is currently in the Rangers organization. Warren, who had been good for the Yankees as a swingman, was terrible for the Cubs (-0.9 WAR, 5.91 ERA in 29 games), but was good as a reliever for the Yankees midway through 2016, in 2017, and midway through 2018 before being moved for international bonus money.
Here is Game 7 queued up to the bottom of the 9th, when Chapman had to keep Cleveland off the board to get the game to extra innings.
Date: August 1, 2016
Angels trade: Joe Smith (0.3)
Cubs trade: Jesus Castillo (minors)
WAR comparison: Cubs 0.3 – Angels 0.0 (Cubs +0.3)
Intangibles: Smith provided some bullpen depth, but did not pitch in the postseason
Analysis: Smith was a rental who didn’t cost much, but got some outs in the last couple months of the season.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17194996/chicago-cubs-acquire-reliever-joe-smith-angels
Pre-2017 Season Trades
Date: December 7, 2016
Royals trade: Wade Davis (1.9)
Cubs trade: Jorge Soler (1.7)
WAR comparison: Cubs 1.9 – Royals 1.7 (Cubs +0.2)
Intangibles: Davis was an absolute necessity for the Cubs to reach the postseason, and barely make it past the Nationals in the NLDS. Soler had one good season for the Royals, but never played in a playoff game for them, and was traded for a mnor league who never made the major league club in Kansas City.
Analysis: With Aroldis Chapman headed back to free agency, the Cubs needed a new closer. After breaking the bank in the previous offseason to sign Heyward, Lackey and Zobrist, they were not interested in any big free agent deals. Soler was a man without a position, as with a healthy Schwarber, Albert Almora slated to take of in Center, and Jason Heyward in right (plus Bryant and Zobrist expected to play some games in the outfield) – plus the NL still not using the DH – he was seen as expendable. I am almost shocked to see the 1 year of Davis was a higher WAR than 4+ years of Soler. But Soler was awful in 2017 (-1.2 WAR) and 2021 (-1.0 WAR) with 2019, where he had a 3.5 WAR, 48 HR, 117 RBIs and a .922 OPS, being the only really great year with the Royals. It was also the standout year of his career, as he’s mostly been a DH with Atlanta, Miami, San Francisco, Atlanta again, and the Angels. His poor defense has negatively impacted his value for several years. So, contrary to my assumptions, despite Jason Heyward’s poor offensive performance over that span, he was still more valuable than Soler (8.7 WAR versus 1.7).
Davis was solid that season, with 32 saves, a 2.30 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He went to Colorado as a free agent the next year, getting a league high 43 saves, but crashed to earth in 2019, with an 8.65 ERA.
https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/127141/wade-davis-brings-historically-great-numbers-fastball-to-cubs
Date: February 8, 2017
Cubs trade: Donnie Dewees (minors)
Royals trade: Alec Mills (0.2)
WAR comparison: Cubs 0.2 – Royals 0.0 (Cubs +0.2)
Intangibles: None
Analysis: Mills had very few memorable moments, save one, that seemingly came out of nowhere during the Covid year of 2020:
WAR Scorecard for 2016 in-season and post season
Gained WAR: 5.0
Lost WAR 16.9
NET: -11.9
Updated Scorecard for Epstein/Hoyer:
Gained WAR: 111.9
Lost WAR: 46.6
NET: +65.3
The net trade gains of the Epstein/Hoyer regime started to take a hit, but certainly no one cared. But more trades would be coming to try to recapture the magic of 2016.
Cubs in 7 
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