How Are the Ex-Cubs doing? – 8/8 – Finding a better pitcher stat

A semi-regular feature showing how former Cub players are doing.

For these blog posts, I’ve been sorting both the ex-Cubs hitters and pitchers by WAR to show the value that they’ve had this season. While the numbers for hitters seem to make sense, the numbers for pitchers just seemed goofy. Trevor Williams, and his ERA over 6 seemed to be way too high on the WAR scoreboard. I did some searching around the web, and found this post which discussed differences between WAR and RA9-WAR from 2017:

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/6/17/15814934/ervin-santana-twins-ra9-war-fwar-debate

Basically, WAR is looking at what should have happened based on the pitcher performance, and not what actually happened – especially when it comes to runs allowed. But I think what actually happened, such as a pitcher giving up runs, should matter. Perhaps not to predict future performance or pitcher potential, but simply to show what has happened to a pitcher that season. I’m going to include a bonus section in this post comparing the WAR to RA9-WAR for the Cubs pitchers this season, just to provide more context.

Ex-Cubs Position players:

#	Name	Team	WAR	PA	HR	OPS	wRC+
1	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	3.9	506	40	.965	164
2	Cody Bellinger	NYY	3.3	452	20	.824	126
3	Zach McKinstry	DET	2.8	386	10	.804	123
4	Isaac Paredes	HOU	2.7	409	19	.829	133
5	Willson Contreras	STL	2.2	456	16	.794	125
6	Mike Tauchman	CHW	1.5	255	8	.824	131
7	Javier Báez	DET	1.4	332	11	.715	97
8	Cam Smith	HOU	1.0	395	7	.694	96
9	Victor Caratini	HOU	0.8	295	10	.751	108
10	Miles Mastrobuoni	SEA	0.2	172	1	.612	83
11	Tomás Nido	DET	0.2	37	0	.704	101
12	Tucker Barnhart	TEX	0.0	15	0	.564	71
13	Travis Jankowski	3 Tms	0.0	50	0	.575	57
14	Nick Castellanos	PHI	-0.2	458	15	.736	102
15	Vidal Bruján	2 Tms	-0.2	48	0	.554	52
16	Gage Workman	2 Tms	-0.2	17	0	.485	39
17	Luis Vázquez	BAL	-0.2	16	0	.125	-77
18	Nicky Lopez	2 Tms	-0.3	28	0	.220	-21
19	Jorge Soler	LAA	-0.3	315	12	.680	88
20	Christopher Morel	TBR	-0.4	229	8	.662	84
21	Alexander Canario	PIT	-0.4	177	3	.581	63
22	Matt Mervis	MIA	-0.4	134	7	.637	72
23	Nick Martini	COL	-0.5	111	1	.582	49
24	Kris Bryant	COL	-0.5	41	0	.400	-4
25	Jason Heyward	SDP	-0.5	95	2	.494	38
26	Joc Pederson	TEX	-0.7	175	3	.542	61
27	Jeimer Candelario	CIN	-0.7	91	2	.410	10
28	Martín Maldonado	SDP	-0.8	161	4	.572	61

With the release of Vidal Brujan, who was picked up by the Orioles (but played only a couple of games for them) and then by the Braves, the number of ex-Cubs with a negative war is 15, while only 11 players have a positive WAR. But with players like Schwarber, Bellinger, McKinstry and Parades, the overall number is still positive.

Ex-Cubs Pitchers

#	Name	Team	RA9-WAR	WAR	G	IP	ERA	xERA
1	Aroldis Chapman	BOS	2.3	1.7	49	44.2	1.21	2.10
2	Jason Adam	SDP	1.9	1.0	55	55.2	1.78	2.95
3	Trevor Megill	MIL	1.3	1.0	42	39.0	2.31	3.20
4	Phil Maton	2 Tms	1.3	1.1	43	41.1	2.18	2.61
5	Pierce Johnson	ATL	1.2	0.6	45	42.0	2.36	2.88
6	Shelby Miller	ARI	1.2	0.6	37	36.1	1.98	3.27
7	Jeremiah Estrada	SDP	1.2	1.4	55	51.2	2.61	2.47
8	Shawn Armstrong	TEX	0.9	0.7	49	49.2	2.90	3.06
9	Kyle Hendricks	LAA	0.9	1.0	21	111.2	4.59	3.93
10	Chris Martin	TEX	0.6	0.7	39	34.1	2.36	3.69
11	Brendon Little	TOR	0.6	1.1	53	50.0	2.70	2.88
12	Rob Zastryzny	MIL	0.5	0.0	15	13.1	2.03	3.13
13	Chris Flexen	CHC	0.5	-0.3	21	43.2	3.09	5.07
14	Andrew Chafin	2 Tms	0.4	0.2	29	23.0	2.35	3.59
15	Hayden Wesneski	HOU	0.4	0.2	6	32.0	4.50	4.41
16	Hunter Bigge	TBR	0.3	-0.2	13	15.0	2.40	6.19
17	Tommy Nance	TOR	0.3	0.2	9	10.2	0.84	2.23
18	Brooks Kriske	2 Tms	0.2	0.0	5	7.0	0.00	2.71
19	Nick Burdi	BOS	0.2	0.1	4	5.1	0.00	4.50
20	Craig Kimbrel	ATL	0.1	0.0	1	1.0	0.00	14.00
21	Wade Miley	CIN	0.0	-0.1	3	12.0	6.75	8.34
22	Michael Fulmer	2 Tms	0.0	0.0	3	5.2	4.76	10.37
23	Codi Heuer	TEX	0.0	-0.1	1	1.1	6.75	4.81
24	Carl Edwards Jr.	LAA	-0.1	-0.1	2	3.0	9.00	4.27
25	Rich Hill	KCR	-0.1	-0.2	2	9.0	5.00	6.63
26	Jesus Tinoco	MIA	-0.2	0.2	20	19.1	5.12	3.29
27	Jesse Chavez	ATL	-0.3	-0.3	4	8.0	9.00	6.47
28	Génesis Cabrera	3 Tms	-0.3	-0.3	24	28.0	5.79	3.96
29	Scott Effross	NYY	-0.3	0.0	11	10.2	8.44	4.84
30	Yu Darvish	SDP	-0.3	0.3	6	27.2	6.51	3.66
31	Ryan Pressly	CHC	-0.3	-0.4	44	41.1	4.35	4.97
32	Marcus Stroman	NYY	-0.3	0.0	9	39.0	6.23	5.77
33	Richard Lovelady	2 Tms	-0.5	-0.3	8	8.1	10.80	6.97
34	Trevor Williams	WSN	-0.5	1.2	17	82.2	6.21	4.38
35	Jorge López	WSN	-0.5	0.3	26	24.2	6.57	5.52
36	Mark Leiter Jr.	NYY	-0.6	0.7	43	35.2	4.29	3.51
37	Héctor Neris	3 Tms	-0.8	0.0	34	26.0	5.88	4.59

Switching the sort by RA(-WAR instead of WAR causes Trevor Williams to drop way down, as there’s a 1.7 point difference between his two numbers. Chris Flexen has a much better RA9-WAR, which takes into account his run prevention early in his tenure with the Cubs.

This list now includes Ryan Pressley and Brooks Kriske, who were both released. Genesis Cabrera, who was on his third team with the Pirates has been DFA’d again. Not sure what his next destination will be.

Bonus: Cubs WAR versus RA9-WAR

Name	Team	RA9-WAR	WAR	DIFF
Shota Imanaga	CHC	2.4	0.9	1.5
Matthew Boyd	CHC	4.5	3.2	1.3
Jameson Taillon	CHC	1.1	0.2	0.9
Chris Flexen	CHC	0.5	-0.3	0.8
Colin Rea	CHC	1.1	0.4	0.7
Cade Horton	CHC	1.6	1.1	0.5
Caleb Thielbar	CHC	1.3	0.8	0.5
Drew Pomeranz	CHC	0.8	0.4	0.4
Daniel Palencia	CHC	1.4	1	0.4
Brad Keller	CHC	1	0.7	0.3
Justin Steele	CHC	0.2	0	0.2
Gavin Hollowell	CHC	0.2	0	0.2
Brooks Kriske	CHC	0.2	0	0.2
Ryan Pressly	CHC	-0.3	-0.4	0.1
Michael Fulmer	CHC	0.1	0	0.1
Michael Soroka	CHC	0	-0.1	0.1
Ethan Roberts	CHC	-0.1	-0.2	0.1
Taylor Rogers	CHC	0.1	0.1	0
Tom Cosgrove	CHC	0.1	0.1	0
Génesis Cabrera	CHC	-0.3	-0.3	0
Jon Berti	CHC	-0.1	0	-0.1
Ryan Brasier	CHC	0.3	0.4	-0.1
Eli Morgan	CHC	-0.5	-0.3	-0.2
Andrew Kittredge	CHC	-0.3	0	-0.3
Julian Merryweather	CHC	-0.4	-0.1	-0.3
Porter Hodge	CHC	-0.8	-0.5	-0.3
Nate Pearson	CHC	-0.6	-0.2	-0.4
Jordan Wicks	CHC	-0.5	0.1	-0.6
Ben Brown	CHC	-0.8	1	-1.8
Total		12.2	8.0	4.2

So, what is this telling us? I’d say that The players with a positive difference have had results that are better than how well they’ve actually pitched. Which is a bit concerning. At the bottom of the list, are pitchers who have pitched better than their results, with Ben Brown being the obvious poster boy. It might also be a reason why Brown has been kept around, despite so many poor outcomes.

Matthew Boyd has still been very good, with a 3.2 WAR, but his results have been even better. But Shota Imanaga is only at a 0.9 WAR but a 2.4 RA9-WAR. Could some of this be due to the Cubs defense? possibly.

Looking at a couple other teams: the Brewers have a +5.3 RA9-WAR over their WAR. And two bad defensive teams, the Nats have a -8.1 and the Rockies have a -6.1. So defense definitely seems to be part of the equation.

I do think I’ll switch to RA9-WAR when sorting pitchers moving forward, but will keep looking for the best stat.