Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 9/22

A bi-weekly feature (more frequent as we get close to season end) on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.

Only one more time through the rotation left, as I’d guess the last start will be a bullpen game of pitchers who will not make the postseason roster.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series

Back to empty

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

No one, as Holmes has really been struggling.

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Clay Holmes – Holmes went from “Ace” to “Embrace” so quickly my head is spinning. I’m not sure I should even have him above the other Cubs starters, but I think his ceiling is high enough that the Cubs will still try to starting him in Game 1 of the playoffs. But as I mentioned in yesterday’s post about the pitching staff, he’s been very poor lately. The Marlins have been very poor against lefties, so if they really need that game, they could pitch Matthew Boyd on normal rest, and pitch Holmes on Friday. But that would mean he would probably be the Wild Card Game 2 starter, with Kevin Gausman or even Shota Imanaga going in Game 1 – or maybe some combination of the two.

Kevin Gausman – He’s still bouncing back and forth between good and bad starts. His postseason experience could give him a slight advantage, especially as there not much separation between the five Cubs starters.

David Peterson – His one bad start lately was against the Brewers in a game they could have taken with Misiorowski pitching. But he’s been able to limit almost everyone else. My guess is that he gets a start on Saturday against the Red Sox, and then moves to the bullpen for the Wild Card series. But maybe we see him start a Wild Card Game 3, depending on how thigs shake out.

Shota Imanaga – He’s now the hottest pitcher in the rotation, but it’s a small sample size. I don’t think it’s enough for him to be the Game 1 or Game 2 starter, but I definitely see him having a role, especially with the bullpen struggling.

Matthew Boyd – I could see him being a Game 3 starter or he might be completely left off the Wild Card roster. He’s looked pretty good in his last few starts, but he’s also given up lots of runs, especially toward the later innings. Could he be effective only going a few innings? Or maybe you bring him in to a dirty inning with a base stealer at first.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent

All the starters are in the mushy middle.

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training

No one at the moment

Moved to Bullpen:

None

Injured Or Sent to Minors:

Ben Brown – 60-day IL – Out for 2026

Justin Steele – 60-day IL – I’m very skeptical that he pitches for the Cubs in 2026.

Cade Horton – 60-day IL – Back in 2027? Hopefully.

DFA’d and/or Traded

none