Have the Cubs wasted a historic defense with all the gopher balls?

One of the philosophies of team-building for the Chicago Cubs has been to pursue and retain position players who are good defensively. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman were big name free agents with good defensive stats. When they traded for him, PCA was seen as a guess who could be a great centerfielder regardless of his hitting. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are very good defensive players who were given extensions. Even Seiya Suzuki was seen as a goodo utfielder when he was signed, and after a couple of rough seasons in the field, he had bounced back in 2026.

The numbers back up the strategy, as the Cubs are +25 over second place in defensive runs saved and +27 in outs above average over the second place team. With a Defensive Runs Above Average (DEF) of over 70. Here are the values of OAA (which excludes catcher framing) over the past few years:

Season	Team	DEF
2026	Chicago Cubs	70
2025	St. Louis Cardinals	35
2024	Arizona Diamondbacks	36
2023	Milwaukee Brewers	38
2022	Arizona Diamondbacks	43
2021	St. Louis Cardinals	52

So, it would stand to reason that with such a great defense, the Cubs would go after pitchers who would keep the ball in the ballpark, as not even a historically good defense can make a play on a pitch that lands over the wall. But that has not happened.

The HR/9 Rate of MLB is 1.17. For starters it is 1.23 and for relievers it is 1.08.

For the Cubs, the overall rate is 1.49 (second worst in the majors), 1.55 for starters and 1.40 for releivers.

In looking at that 1.17 number, let’s look at the career numbers for some of the Cubs pitchers in 2026 and the number for this season for pitchers who have thrown 20 innings or more for the Cubs.

Pitcher	*2026 HR/9	Career HR/9
Ben Brown	0.26	0.98
Aaron Civale	0.28	1.34
Clay Holmes	0.61	0.60
Ryan Rolison	0.90	1.49
Hoby Milner	1.01	1.04
David Peterson	1.04	0.90
Ethan Roberts	1.05	1.57
Matthew Boyd	1.18	1.43
Jacob Webb	1.39	1.08
Colin Rea	1.42	1.36
Daniel Palencia	1.42	0.89
Trent Thonton	1.49	1.40
Javier Assad	1.57	1.19
Phil Maton	1.63	1.04
Shota Imanaga	1.82	1.70
Edward Cabrera	1.84	1.32
Kevin Gausman	2.01	1.11
Caleb Thielbar	2.12	1.04
Jameson Taillon	2.96	1.34

*For the Chicago Cubs only

In looking at these numbers there are a few red flags:

• Shota Imanaga has always given up lots of home runs, so it’s not surprising it has happened again in 2026
• Jameson Taillon has gotten worse with giving up homers through his career. He was under 1.00 for this last 3 seasons in Pittsburgh, but for the last 5 seasons was at 1.50, 1.32, 1.57, 1.14 and 1.67. But things absolutely balooned to 2.96 in 2026.
• Trent Thornton has had a high rate through his career which we have seen replicated this season, but he was not expected to have as many innings.
• Colin Rea had a fairly high HR rate – but he was not expected to be a starter for most of the season.

But there are so many pitchers who have just seen their HR/9 rate skyrocket this season. Jacob Webb, Daniel Palencia, Phil Maton and Caleb Thielbar all had HR/9 rates that were better than league average, but this season have been well above league average. And Javier Assad was just below league average, but has been much worse this year. And Edward Cabrera, the big trade acquisition has gone from worse than league average to much worse than league average.

When you add the 6 pitchers who have been unexpectedly worse than league average with the 4 who were expected to give up more homers than average, you can see how the Cubs have been so bad.

Only Ben Brown, Ryan Rolison, Aaron Civale, David Peterson and Matthew Boyd have been better than expected in homers allowed, and they have not pitched enough innings to counter-balance the players who were bad.

So what can the Cubs do to make this better? Well, not much this season, but in 2027 (if there is a season):

1. Trading Jameson Taillon was a start. He was going to be a free agent, but his HR rate has been bad for half a decade.
2. Let Shota Imanaga leave as a free agent. There have been times he’s been the best starter the Cubs have, and when the wind is blowing in, he can be lethal. But he needs to go to a team with a more pitcher-friendly stadium.
3. Sign a starter who does not give up homers. Holmes would be ideal, but I’m not sure they will be willing to spend so much. Maybe Peterson could be brought back.
4. Hope that Palencia, Zeferjahn and maybe even Maton have better seasons, Webb cuts down on homers allowed, and that Rolison follows his break-out with another good year.
5. Hope Ben Brown and Justin Steele can be healthy and productive.
6. Make better choices, and be luckier, with the free-agent relievers they bring in.

Ultimately, the front office chose poorly in the players they went after in the offseason, both free agents and trades. Some of it was bad luck, but they might need to take a different tack in the types of pitchers they go after.