Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 9/11

A bi-weekly feature (more frequent as we get close to season end) on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.

Clay Holmes has been dominating, Kevin Gausman and Matthew Boyd have a bit up and down, David Peterson is still competing and Shota Imanaga has hit a tipping point.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series

Back to empty

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

Clay Holmes – Moving him to the Ace tier turned out to be a big mistake, as he got thrashed in his last start by the Marlins. I’m not sure what went wrong, but he has 3 more starts in the regular season to see if he can be trustworthy again. He has an opportunity to regain the confidence of the team with a big-time pitchers’ duel scheduled against Paul Skenes tomorrow, in a game the Cubs really could use.

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Kevin Gausman – One good start, one bad start, one good start, one bad start. I’m not sure I should have him over Boyd, but his good starts have been so good. Here are his 7 starts for the Cubs:
8/7 – 7 IP, 2 ER
8/13 – 4.2 IP, 6 ER
8/18 – 4.1 IP 3 ER
8/24 – 7 IP, 0 ER
8/29 – 5 IP, 5 ER
9/3 – 7 IP, 1 ER
9/9 – 4 IP, 6 ER

Matthew Boyd – Boyd had a great start against Milwaukee, but was kept in a little too long, and the bullpen finished the collapse. Has he done enough to be a starter in a game 3 of a playoff series? Probably, but the competition for that spot is not very stiff.

David Peterson – He had a game where he could have beaten Misiorowski if he had been just a bit better. Then Craig Counsell has a quick hook when he has been doing well, and Jacob Webb blew the save. I think he is safe in the rotation for the rest of the year, but will be going 4 or 5 innings at most, with Assad or Civale pitching behind him.

Shota Imanaga – Can one good start save Imanaga from replacement? Everyone was calling for him to be dropped from the rotation, for good reason. And then he goes 6 innings allowing 3 hits, no walks, and 1 earned run with no homers. That broke a streak of 6 straight games allowing a home run. He can double up on that streak today, which could go a long way to proving that he might be a valuable addition to a playoff roster. Or, in a game the Cubs really need, he could revert to allowing the long ball, and move back down to the near replace tier.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent

Watch this space for Imanaga

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training

No one at the moment

Moved to Bullpen:

Javier Assad – He came back and started a game, pitching just OK. He’s moved back to the bullpen but could have a big role there, as the leash for the starters gets shorter, but no one else in the bullpen is very trustworthy.

Injured Or Sent to Minors:

Edward Cabrera – 15-day IL – Might be close to returning, but will probably go to the bullpen. If he gets called back up.

Ben Brown – 60-day IL – Out for 2026

Justin Steele – 60-day IL – Still making rehab appearances, but I think people who are getting their hopes up for a trip to the majors in 2026 will be disappointed.

Cade Horton – 60-day IL – Back in 2027? Hopefully.

DFA’d and/or Traded

none