Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 9/1

A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.

Clay Holmes has been dominating, Kevin Gausman and Matthew Boyd have a bit up and down, David Peterson is still competing and Shota Imanaga has hit a tipping point.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series

Clay Holmes – Maybe this is a bad idea, but when a guy gives up 1 run over 25 innings, he has to be considered an Ace. Regardless of who the Cubs face in the first game of the playoffs, if they make it, I’d be confident with Holmes pitching. I think this is the first Cubs pitcher in this tier since Cade Horton last season.

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

No one at the moment

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Kevin Gausman – After a brilliant 7 innings of shutout ball, I was ready to move Gausman up. But he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, including 2 home runs, to the Reds in his last start. But at this point, he’s still probably the #2 pitcher on the Cubs staff.

Matthew Boyd – After two rough starts against the Cardinals and Mariners, he was excellent against the Diamondbacks, giving up only 1 run and 3 hits over 6 innings. Unfortunately, the offense decided to take that game off, and the Cubs lost. Can he put together a few more great starts before the season ends?

David Peterson – From a statistical perspective, he should probably be above Boyd, and maybe even Gausman. In 10 starts, he has kept the Cubs in all of the games except of one, when he got shelled by the Cardinals. Outside of that one game, he has a 2.44 ERA with the Cubs. I think he sticks in the rotation for the rest of the season, and would start a playoff game if the playoffs began today.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent

Shota Imanaga – What can be said that hasn’t been said. Unless the wind is blowing in, it is almost impossible to start Imanaga and expect good results. I think he’ll get one more chance, but if it’s another bad start, I think he goes to the bullpen to be replaced by Javier Assad. 11 home runs in his last 6 games is just too much.

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training

Imanaga is on the edge.

Moved to Bullpen:

N/A

Injured Or Sent to Minors:

Javier Assad – He was optioned to AAA on Aug 21, and the Cubs have gone 4-6 since. Coincidence? Probably. But maybe the Cubs are facing some bad baseball karma by sending down a guy who had been doing nothing but perform well so that they could maintain depth in their bullpen. According to Arizona Phil, who contributes to The Cub Reporter, the Cubs might gain a year of control b keeping him in the minors: https://x.com/thecubreporter/status/2092052629807415792

Edward Cabrera – 15-day IL – Might be close to returning, but will probably go to the bullpen.

Ben Brown – 60-day IL – He suffered a setback in his rehab, and is now there’s a huge question mark of if he will return in 2026.

Justin Steele – 60-day IL – Started a rehab assignment, but I’m still skeptical he comes back this year.

Cade Horton – 60-day IL – Back in 2027? Hopefully.

DFA’d and/or Traded

none