A sometimes bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. The ratings are based around how much each reliever causes my hair to turn grey or even fall out.
Not as many changes as I might have expected, as Hoby Milner and Daniel Palencia remain on rehab assignments and Ethan Roberts was sent to AAA after coming off the IL. But with the additions of Holmes and Gausman, we did see Colin Ra and Javier Assad get moved into the pen, causing a couple players to head to Iowa. We very well might see Edward Cabrera on this list in the next iteration, if the Cubs decide to have him come out of the bullpen. Or maybe they go to a 6-man rotation.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Jacob Webb– Webb has now gone 20 straight appearances without giving up a run, and he’s been an absolute revelation for the Cubs this season. I did a whole series of posts in the pre-season about how the Cubs were looking for the next Brad Keller through minor league free agent deals, but it has been Webb who has taken on that role, and is currently the closer. With Daniel Palencia struggling with his command in the minors, I wounder if Craig Counsell will just continue to stick with Webb in that role if/when Palencia is back.
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Ryan Rolison– He has continued to look great, and is the most trustworthy lefty out of the pen. He continues to get outs, shutting down the Nationals the other night after Imanaga had left a couple on base. I would not have expected this type of season for Rolison, but I could say the same thing about the rest of the bullpen.
Some gray hair (medium confidence)
–Trent Thornton– His luck has not yet run out, with a FIP still at 4.59 and a K% of 13.1 (league average is 22.1). And yet, his ERA is 2.65. He just came off one of his more impressive outings of the season, with 2 K’s in one inning against the Nats. He’s done plenty to stick around, but I can’t move up up a tier with such horrible peripherals. Not to mention, I feel nervous every time his goes into a game.
–Ryan Zeferjahn– I ewas expecting the Cubs to trade for someone who would be in the high confidence tiers, and Zeferjahn seemed to fit the bill, but it’s been a rocky beginning to his Cubs tenure. He’s allowed 3 runs in only 3.1 innings so far, and was really bad in his latest appearance against Washington on 8/11, giving up 3 hits and a walk in only 2/3rds of an inning. There’s plenty of time for him to turn this around, but expectations are high for a player who cost the Cubs Moises Ballesteros.
–Javier Assad– He continues to bounce back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen, but with the additions of Holmes and Gausman, he is solidly in the pen — at least for now. He’s also continued to be a bit up and down, especially in relief. He is one of the few pitchers on the staff with minor league options, so there is a chance he gets sent down when the next injured player returns – especially if the Cubs don’t want to lose Aaron Civale.
–Colin Rea– Rea is back in the bullpen for the first time since the Cade Horton injury. He allowed a home run in his first relief appearance (which makes 7 HRs allowed in his last 7 appearances), and I’m not really sure what we will see from him down the stretch. As he is still stretched out, I’d guess Counsell will use him in very long relief (at least 3 or 4 innings) every 4 or 5 days.
–Aaron Civale– He’s pitched better then expected (at least by me). He was involved in extra-innings wins over the Blue Jays and Cardinals, but right now seems like a bulk innings guy. I’m guessing the Cubs would like to keep him around, but it will be a numbers game soon, and I can’t see them keeping him over Milner, Cabrera and Thielbar. But they have preferred him to Ethan Roberts, who is healthy now.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Caleb Thielbar– I just don’t see the Cubs dropping Thielbar — at least not for now. But it has gotten pretty bad. He sandwiched great inning in extras where he straded the designated runner with two stinkers where he gave up 6 earners runs while only getting 2 outs. Amazingly, the Cubs won both of those games despite Thielbar. Would the Cubs be ruthless enough to DFA a guy who has a $4 million deal this season, and has a $6 million mutual option with $500k buyout for 2027? I’m sure they’ll decline the mutual option even if he stays, but I’m not sure of the financial implications of cutting him now.
No hair left (no confidence)
I’m hoping this tier stays empty, but Thielbar has been racing toward it lately.
Moved to the Rotation:
We might see Assad or Rea go back, but that would mean another starter injury.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Hoby Milner– 15-day IL (rehab assignment) – He’s had several rehab appearances, and is probably ready to return. But this would require a roster move the Cubs are not yet ready to make.
–Daniel Palencia– 15-day IL (rehab assignment) – His latest rehab appearance in AA was concerning, as he was not able to find the plate. I feel like fastball command has been a problem for him even before the injury, so I’m really beginning to worry that we might not see the same Palencia we saw in the WBC, where it really looked like he had turned a corner.
–Shelby Miller – 60-day IL (rehab assignment) – I’m shocked he has been pitching this season. The Cubs have a little more flexibility to send Miller to rehab assignments even if they don’t plan to activate him, as there is a special rule for players coming off of Tommy John surgery, where a rehab assignment can be extended in 10-day increments. So while Palencia and Milner have a maximum of 30 days for their assignment, Miller could go for up to 60 days.
–Gavin Hollowell– 15-day-IL – Shoulder inflammation sent him to the IL, but I think he may have been headed for Iowa anyway. He’s been quite effective this season, but I’m not sure the trust factor was there. I think he’s a depth piece coming down the stretch, assuming his shoulder recovers. If Palencia can’t get right, Hollowell might be a back-up plan.
–Tyler Ferguson– AAA – Sent down after the new acquisitions. He wasn’t bad in his time in the majors, but always made me nervous. It’s doubtful he is up again, unless the Cubs use a “taxi squad” of a few guys with minor league options at the end of the season.
–Andrew Wantz– AAA – Wantz signed a minor league deal with the Cubs after he was DFA’d. I would not expect to see him back with the team unless something goes horribly awry
–Ethan Roberts– AAA – He is healthy again, but was sent to Iowa instead of replacing Assad or Civale.
–Hunter Harvey– 60-day IL – He started throwing bullpen sessions, but has not started a rehab assignment. I still see him as a long-shot to pitch again for the Cubs.
–Riley Martin– 15-day IL – No real update on Martin. It will be a shame if he doesn’t get another shot in 2026, but time is running out.
–Phil Maton– 15-day IL – It was discovered that Maton has a partially torn tendon in his knee, not just tendinitis. He is under contract for next season, so I could see the team shutting hi down by putting him on the 60-day IL.
–Jordan Wicks– AAA – Got to start at the Field of Dreams minor-league game, which might have been his highlight for the season.
–Jayden Murray– AAA
–Ty Blach– AAA
–Corbin Martin– AAA
–Porter Hodge – 60-day IL – Out for 2026
Released:
–Jake Woodford – DFA’d – Woodford got a couple go rounds with the Cubs, and pitched a scoreless inning against the Dodgers as his farewell. He’s now in the Tampa Bay Rays minor leagues.
–Luke Little– DFA’d – I had high hopes that Little might have a career trajectory similar to Daniel Palencia, but it turned out to be more like Dillon Maples – at least, for now. He could hit high 90s, which coming from the left side could be a valuable commodity. But he was unable to harness his command, and after being sent to AA to see if he could improve there, he finally was DFA’d to make room on the 40-man roster. The Kansas City Royals decided to take a chance on him, grabbing him off of waivers, and putting him on their 40-man roster. He was sent to their AAA affiliate in Omaha, appearing in one game so far (0.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 SO)
Cubs in 7 
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