A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.
The return of Jameson Taillon went as expected, and his era with the Cubs is now over. Meanwhile, they added not one but two starters. So before Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman get their first starts, I thought I’d do one more rotation analysis post – especially to give some props to players who may drop out of the rotation.
It is interesting to see what the Cubs do with the rotation. My guess is that Assad and Rea move to the bullpen, although there’s a small chance Assad heads to AAA for a spell.
One odd stat: The Cubs are 2nd best in starter ERA since July 1, but they are they are 4th worst with 27 home runs allowed in that time, which seems crazy.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
Clay Holmes might fit in here, but we will see.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
The home run issues are keeping me from putting Imanaga and Boyd in this tier, and one of the big reasons, in my opinion, that they acquired two rental starters. Holmes and/or Gausman might fit here. And then we have the possibility of Edward Cabrera coming back, although he hasn’t pitched well enough to even be considered to be in this tier.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Shota Imanaga – He has been a near-ace in his last 7 starts, where he has not allowed more than 2 runs in any of them. So why don’t I have him in the higher tier? He still has allowed home runs in 4 of those 7 games. All of those home runs were solo shots, but luck plays a part in that number, and the danger of the three-run home run (remember game 2 against the Brewers in the ALDS last season) looms large. But he’s been fantastic for the Cubs since May. One small concern — his fastball velocity has been lower over the past month
Matthew Boyd – Boyd had three great starts before a rough one against the Dodgers. Fortunately, the offense came alive, and the Cubs were able to win. Similar to Imanaga, Boys has been struggling with the home run, giving up 4 in the last 5 starts. I still feel good about having him in the rotation, but in a playoff series against a top-line starter on the other side, I don’t feel so good.
Javier Assad – Assad just continues to outshine expectations. He uses the elite Cubs defense to help get him out of jams and overcome his low strikeout rate. Craig Counsell has been very careful to get him out of games before going through the opposing lineup for a 3rd time, going 4.2, 5, 4,1 and 5.2 innings in his last 4 starts. But he only gave up 0, 2, 1 and 1 runs in those starts. I do wonder what happens when Holmes and Gausman join the rotation, as it has been reported that the Cubs would get another year of club control if Assad spends a couple more weeks in the minors.
David Peterson – Peterson has been great, and I think he stays in the rotation, even with the new additions. Similar to the other guys, he’s only given up 5 runs in his last 5 starts (although 3 of those runs were home runs). His acquisition should not be undervalued, especially considering the timing – when the Cubs were desperate for starting pitching. But do I want him starting in the playoffs…I just don’t know.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Colin Rea – Rea is the only starter who has not been great lately, and a trip to the bullpen seems imminent. He’s given up 3 or more runs in 3 of 5 starts, allowing 5 homers in those starts. I see lots of 3-inning stints in his future.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
Rea and Assad will probably be replaced, but neither really deserve it.
Moved to Bullpen:
Stay tuned
Injured Or Sent to Minors:
Edward Cabrera – 15-day IL – Had a good firsst rehab start in AAA. Sounds like he will have two more. Where does he fit in when coming back to the majors?
Ben Brown – 60-day IL – He was moved to the 60-day IL to free up a roster spot, but that does not impact his rehab. He is still throwing, and hopefully he is back in September.
Justin Steele – 60-day IL – Still throwing, with a slight chance of playing in 2026
Jordan Wicks – AAA – Had a brief stint in the majors as a reliever, but he is back in Iowa
Cade Horton – 60-day IL – Back in 2027?
DFA’d and/or Traded
Jameson Taillon – DFA’d and traded to the Blue Jays. His two starts back from the IL made clear that he was not a viable starter. He pitched for the Jays and gave up a home and 3 runs in 4 innings, which is basically what he had been giving the Cubs. Ultimately, perhaps he was not worth the contract, but he did provide 2 solid seasons and some good postseason pitching in 2025. Here was more on Taillon, just before he was released: https://cubsin7.blog/2026/07/27/is-it-the-end-of-the-road-for-jameson-taillon-with-the-cubs/
Cubs in 7 
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