A sometimes bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational. The ratings are based around how much each reliever causes my hair to turn grey or even fall out.
In two more weeks, this bullpen could look very different, with Hoby Milner and Ethan Roberts possibly back from injury as well as reinforcements coming through trade. And then a couple weeks after that, we might see the return of Daniel Palencia and someone from the rotation joining the bullpen to make room for Edward Cabrera. Then who knows if/when we will see Hunter Harvey, Ben Brown, Justin Steele, Riley Martin or even Shelby Miller. I’m guessing we won’t see Phil Maton.
But for players like Andrew Wentz and Aaron Civale, this might be the last time they show up in these ratings.
Note: Wantz was DFA’d while I was writing this, replaced by Jake Woodford.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
No one here at the moment.
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Jacob Webb– Moving Webb back up, as he’s been very good lately. Of all the pitching acquisitions over the offseason, Webb has been the best. Even with several players returning or coming via trade, I think he will stay as a primary setup guy. He hasn’t given up a run since June 20th, although he probably should have on July 18th against the Twins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ju86CHiJZwU
–Ryan Rolison– After a couple of shaky outings, I’m moving Rolison back up to this spot. He did give up an important run in the 8-7 loss to the Pirates, and the Cubs have actually lost 4 of the last 5 games he has appeared in. But his ERA is down to 2.66.
Some gray hair (medium confidence)
–Caleb Thielbar– I’d love to move Thielbar up a level, and he has been better lately, with only 1 run allowed in his last 7 appearances. His ERA is down from a season high of 4.95 down to 4.06. I see him staying in the bullpen regardless of who is added, but his role might be up in the air.
–Trent Thornton– I think he may be the luckiest pitcher alive right now. I feel like I should have him rated lower, but his ERA is still down at 2.51. But with a FIP of 4.81, and a K/9 of 4.2, something has got to give soon. I though he had surrendered a game-tying home run to Jordan Walker a few days agi, but Ian Happ caught it against the wall. The CUbs will probably ride him until his luck runs out, but when it happens, it could be painful.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Gavin Hollowell– Has he turned a corner? He has a 2.29 ERA over 8 games, and has show some quality stuff. Unfortunately, his FIP is 6.72 and his WHIP is 1.49. SO, like Thornton, I am really concerned that his is set for regression.
–Aaron Civale– Another reunion from 2025, Civale is the new long-man in the pen, especially with Assad moving to the rotation. Results are mixed in two games so far, and I don’t expect to see him with the team in a couple of weeks. But he may get in a couple more games.
No hair left (no confidence)
–Tyler Ferguson– with Andrew Wantz Jake Woodfrod on the team, he is no longer first on the chopping block. But time is ticking…
–Jake Woodford – went from DFA to AAA and then back to the majors. He will be a one and done in a low-leverage situation, just like Wantz. I can’t wait for this bullpen juggling act to be over.
Moved to the Rotation:
–Javier Assad– He will be moving to the rotation, but could be back in the bullpen when Edward Cabrera comes back or if the Cubs trade for a starter. He had a very unlucky inning against the Tigers on the 20th, and then had 3 solid innings against the Pirates in an 11-0 win.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Ethan Roberts– 15-day IL – Roberts is on a rehab assignment, and could be back in the majors before several other players are due to return. He’s already been in 4 games (including on 7/29, the day this was posted, so I would not be shocked if he joins the Cubs back in Chicago against the Yankees.
–Hoby Milner– 15-day IL – He should be back in early August.
–Daniel Palencia– 15-day IL – Just started a rehab assignment in Arizona, and his expected retun in mid-August
–Hunter Harvey– 60-day IL – After hearing nothing for months, we got shockingly positive news on Harvey. He is with Palencia in Arizona, starting a rehab assignment. HE has been so fragile in his career, that it still might be surprising to see him stay healthy during his rehab and join the Cubs.
–Riley Martin– 15-day IL – Still building up. He might get healthy too late to have a big impact, due to so many players getting healthy pus possible trades.
–Phil Maton– 15-day IL – He pitched in exactly 1 game for the Cubs before returning to the IL with knee tendinitis. He had a PRP treatment on the knee, and while the recovery should be in time for him to return, I wonder if the Cubs will have him wait until 2027.
–Jordan Wicks– AAA – He continues to struggle in Iowa (7.41 ERA), so I would not expect to see him anytime soon.
–Jayden Murray– AAA
–Ty Blach– AAA
–Corbin Martin– AAA
–Porter Hodge – 60-day IL – Out for 2026
–Luke Little– AA – Not doing well enough in AA to be promoted to AAA, let alone the Cubs
Released:
–Andrew Wantz– He came and went very quickly. The Cubs got 2 innings from him and then sent him on his way.
–Drew Pomeranz– The reunion was short-lived, and he was replaced by another guy who the Cubs had last season, Aaron Civale. He is now a free agent.
Cubs in 7 
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