The Cubs are not winning low-scoring games

Last night the Cubs had an uninspired performance on offense, scoring only one run on a solo home run by Seiya Suzuki in the first inning. For a team who have used walks to drive production, they managed to take only one walk in the 9th inning last night.

And while it’s probably a no-brainer to conclude that a team wins more games when they score lots of runs, with the Cubs it has been extreme.

• In their last 10 wins the Cubs have scored 9, 23, 6, 5, 9, 5, 8, 6, 10 and 11 runs. That 9.2 runs per game.
• In their last 10 losses they scored 2, 6, 2, 1, 0, 2, 0, 2, 6 and 1 runs. That’s 2.2 runs per game.
• The last time they shut out an opponent was on May 14th. However, to be fair they did hold opponents to 2 or 3 runs in 5 of their last 10 wins, and 1 run in one of those.
• As much as it has felt like this team has been in a ton of close games, they last won a 1-run game on Jun 29th. And only one of their last 10 losses were by 1 run.

It semes that, at least lately, the Cubs have been leaning almost entirely on their offense in the games they have won – even if the pitching has been good. But when the offense has been bad, the pitching has not saved them.

Let’s compare these number to the Brewers.

• In their last 10 wins, they’ve scored 3, 4, 5, 10, 8, 2, 8, 3, 8 and 4 runs (5.5 runs per game)
• In their last 10 losses they scored 3, 2, 3, 2, 3, 1, 6, 2, 5, and 0 runs (2.7 runs per game)
• 4 of their 10 wins were by 1-run.

That’ s 3 wins out of 10 when they have only scored 2 or 3 runs. Plus 2 games where they scored only 4. It is much easier to stack up wins when a team is winning close games, as well as blow-outs.

This all leads to what the Cubs will need to do if they want to make the playoffs this season. The need pitching.

The Cubs bullpen is the easier “fix” as their ERA in June and July is 21st in the majors. And Cubs relievers have one game in the last 16 where they were able to allow zero runs. Getting one or two more reliable relievers could go a long way toward getting a few 2-1 or 3-2 victories.

Sure, Jacob Webb, Ryan Rolison and Trent Thornton have been pretty good. But being able to count on someone in addition to those guys to get outs, especially if they pitched the previous day, will be critical.

Running Tyler Fergeson or Aaron Civale (or whoever other castoff has been picked up that week) is just not an option for team looking to make a playoff run, even if it is just a wild card spot.

Getting starting pitching is a whole other story. While the bullpen has been bad, the rotation has been pretty good, with the 8th best ERA in the majors since June 1. But who feel extremely confident with Jameson Taillon, David Peterson or Colin Rea starting the game. I feel good if they only give up 3 or 4 runs in their appearances.

If the Cubs could add a quality starting pitcher to join the rotation at the deadline, I’d feel much better about their chances. But it might be cost-prohibitive to even get a rental, let alone a pitcher with a few years of control. I’m not optimistic. But I’ve certainly been surprised in the past.