A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.
Things have gotten MUCH better for the starters over the past month. If we go back to June 10th, the Cubs’ starters are 5th in ERA in the majors at 3.31. And if we take out the one terrible start by David Peterson where he gave up 10 runs in 3.2 innings, that number would be 2.81. As the bullpen has started to falter, the offense and starting pitching have stepped up to give the Cubs a 22-9 record over their last 31 games.
They get Jameson Taillon back tonight, and I’m not sure how I feel about that, as it would most likely send Javier Assad to the bullpen.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
I may need to eliminate this category, as there is no one even remotely close.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
I need to see about 5 more good starts from either Imanaga or Boyd to move them into this group.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Shota Imanaga – He managed to equal his best start of the season, shutting out the Twins over 7 innings. It was one of the very few times this season that a Cubs starter has gone 7 innings, and with the state of the bullpen, that is big. He had a horrible stretch earlier this season where he allowed 8 then 7 then 5 and then 6 earned runs, moving his ERA from 2.32 all the way up to 4.74. But things have settled, and he has only given up 2 earned runs or fewer in 5 of 6 starts (the exception was 4 earned runs on 3 homers in a 10-5 win over the Mets), moving his ERA back down under 4. He is still giving up home runs, where he is tied for 3 most allowed in the majors at 22.
Matthew Boyd – Since coming back from injury, Boyd has allowed 0, 3, 0, 4 and 1 earned runs. He has also been ramping up his innings to 6 or over the past 3 starts. The downside is that he’s given up 4 home runs in those 5 starts. He is right on the cusp of moving up a tier.
Javier Assad – He continues to keep the Cubs in the games that he starts, and I’m not sure I feel better about Taillon coming into the rotation to replace him. His one bad outing over the past 6 was actually in a relief appearance where he gave up 4 runs to the Padres over 2.2 innings. But in his 5 starts, he has a 2.39 ERA over that stretch. Maybe Counsell and the front office feel like he will handle being in the bullpen better than Rea, Taillon or Peterson. But I don’t think I like it.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Colin Rea – Rea was the best starter for a stretch in May, when everything else seemed to be crumbling. But things have not been so rosy lately. His ERA is up to 4.74. and I just don’t feel very confident when he pitches. But if the offense has a good game. I moved him up in my last update, and now I’m moving him back down. Probably not fair, but what is?
David Peterson – Peterson bounced back from his horrible outing against the Cardinals to limit the Orioles to 1 run over 5 innings (only to see the offense score only 2 and the bullpen take the loss). He has another start this week against the Tigers, and with Taillon back, the pressure will be on to avoid a repeat of the 10 ER allowed start.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
One more bad start and Peterson will be here
Moved to Bullpen:
No one as of this update
Injured Or Sent to Minors:
Jameson Taillon – 15-day IL – Like it or not, Taillon returns tonight against the red-hot Tigers. With an ERA of 5.19 and a horrible HR/9 rate of 2.66 (dead last in the majors for pitchers with more than 50 innings) we have to hope the rest will have helped.
Ben Brown – 15-day IL – Brown has started throwing again, but who knows if we see him again in 2026.
Edward Cabrera – 15-day IL – Cabrera is making progress, and hopefully will be back in mid-August. With his blister problems, I wounder if it would make sense to put him in the bullpen when he comes back.
Jordan Wicks – AAA – Had a brief stint in the majors as a reliever, but he is back in Iowa
Justin Steele – 60-day IL – I’m waiting for the update that Steele will not pitch in 2027. With the uncertainty of the rotation next season, allowing him to wait might be the best option. But, we’ll see.
Cade Horton – 60-day IL – Back in 2027?
Cubs in 7 
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