Technically, the first-half of the season should occur after 81 games, and we are already at 96, so we are well past the half-way point. But the All-Star break does give some time to pause and reflect at what has occured before it.
2026 has been a wild season for the Cubs so far. Some of the negatives include pitcher injuries, poor hitting with runners on base, disappointing acquisitions, a long losing streak, and the Brewers surpassing expectations – again. But despite all of those negatives, the team is still 12 games over .500, has had a couple long winning streaks, has gotten some very unexpected pitching performances, and has the breakout performer of the season in Pete Crow-Armstrong.
So I’m going to start with the positive, and review the things I’ve liked the most about this season.
Pete Crow-Armstrong
When the Cubs traded Javy Baez for PCA, I was excited. He was the highest ranked prospect of any of the acquisitions during the 2021 purge, but he had a very limited track record when they acquired him due to injury.
When he came up to the majors for a brief cameo in 2023, there were things to like: his defense, his speed and his enthusiasm all were confirmation that he had a high floor as a major leaguer: he would provide great speed and defense in Centerfield for years to come. He did strike out in 7 of his 19 plate appearances, and did not register an extra base hit.
He started 2024 back in Iowa, but when Cody Bellinger injured his ribs after running in the center-field wall at Wrigley, it was time for him to come back to the majors for good. We saw flashes that year, as he had 10 home runs, 27 steals, and 11 defensive runs saved, posting a 2.3 bWAR — basically showing us the high-floor player most people thought he would be. But there were negatives. He had a very low 5.1% walk rate, an 86 wRC+, and a 40.5% OSwing% (swinging at ball outside the strike zone), which was among the worst in the league.
The first half of 2025 seemed like a revelation. In March through July, he had a 137 wRC+, a .868 OPS, 27 home runs, 30 doubles and 3 triples. He was showing more power in his game than anyone had really expected.
Unfortunately, the bottom fell out in August through October, where his wRC+ went down to 45, and his OPS dropped to .533. HIs defense was still elite, but he was almost an automatic out at the plate. His postseason was even worse, as he went 5 for 27, with no extra-base hits, for a .399 OPS. And he struck out 12 times.
When I reviewed the outfield after last season, the stat that stuck out like a sore thumb was the OSwing%. He was 2nd worst among qualified hitters at swinging at pitches that were not in the strike zone, and he didn’t take walks. He was really good at hitting pitches in the strike zone, but pitchers figured out that they just didn’t need to throw him strikes to get him out. He was very similar to the man he had been traded for, Javy Baez, and I wondered if it could ever get better.
And as if a switch got flipped for PCA, he seemed to just level up this season. His OSwing% dropped from 45.6% all the way down to 36.9%, which is 37th among the 149 qualified hitters. More impressively, his walk rate went from 4.5% to 11.2% and his OBP is up by nearly .100 points from last season. And he has not sacrificed power, as his slugging is just a touch below wheat he had in the first half of last season.
When 2026 started, I was hopeful about the Cubs offense, thinking they should be solid, one through nine. And they would make up for the lack of a superstar offensive player, like an Ohtani or a Soto or a Judge, by having consistency. PCA may not be on the level of those other three at the moment, but he has show superstar ability that i did not expect.
Unfortunately, the consistency across the lineup I was also hoping far has not quite happened, so PCA’s breakout has been absolutely necessary.
Unexpected Contributions from the Pitching Staff
When Cade Horton went down with an injury, it felt like a worst case scenario. HE was the only guy on the staff who had shown an ability to be dominant. Imanaga and Boyd has shown stretches. Cabrera had potential. Steele was supposed to be back after the All-Star break. And Taillon was an inning-eater, but also a homerun-serving machine.
And then Boyd went down. And Cabrera went down. And then Boyd again. And when it seemed like Ben Brown had stepped up to be that dominant pitcher similar to Horton, he got injured. And the Taillon went down. And then Cabrera got hurt again.
The Cubs have had one guy who started in the rotation who has been healthy the whole season, Shota Imanaga. And Colin Rea, who was brought into the rotation when Horton went down has also managed to stay healthy.
And then there the bullpen: injuries to Daniel Palencia, Caleb Thielbar, Hunter Harvey, Phil Maton, Hoby Milner, Riley Martin and Ethan Roberts. Thielbar and Maton are now back, but the rest of the bullpen has been a patchwork quilt of low-leverage guys forced into high-leverage situations and temporary fill-ins used to get some innings and some outs.
So it has been critical that the Cubs have had some unexpected contributions
Starters:
- Javier Assad has a 4.11 ERA, including a 3.64 as a starter.
- After years of frustration, Ben Brown was dominant, with a 1.85 ERA over 68 innings. Of course, his neck injury from 2024 came back, and we’ll see if he can pitch again this year.
- David Peterson allowed 1 run and 2 runs in 2 of his 3 starts. Unfortunately, his other start was a disaster, as he allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings.
Relievers:
- Ryan Rolison has a 2.80 ERA in 32 games
- Jacob Webb has a 3.05 ERA and 5 saves in 42 games
- Trent Thornton has a 2.48 ERA in 25 games
- Gavin Hollowell have a 2.79 ERA in 8 games
- Riley Martin had a 2.16 ERA in 8 games before being injured
Overall, the pitching has not been great. Cubs’ pitching is 17th in runs allowed, and 21st in ERA. But without some of these unexpected contributions, things could be much worse.
The Offense
Much of the focus around the offense, excluding what PCA has been doing, has been in two areas:
- The inability to hit with runners in scoring position
- The month-long slump that coincided with the team sliding back to .500 (before their latest 20-8 stretch)
The average with runners in scoring position has been going up. They are still 26th in the league, at .235. But slugging with RISP is 20th, OBP is 16th, and the most important stat, runs scored is 5th in MLB. If they were a bit better with RISP, they might be leading the league in runs scored.
Also things have been getting better. In May, the Cubs only his .188 with runners in scoring position. In June, it was .258 and it is .253 so far in July.
And while that May swoon for the offense caused early season optimism to come crashing back to earth, the offense has been good and has carried the team. They are 5th in runs scored, and their pitching is better than two of the teams ahead of them (Pittsburgh and Washington). Unsurprisingly, the only teams about the Cubs in both pitching and hitting are the Dodgers and Brewers.
One of the keys (knock on wood) has been health. Other than Matt Shaw, the starters on offense have managed to stay healthy and in the lineup.
The other good news is that other than PCA, only Kelly is having a really good year, so there is room for improvement. That does not mean there will be improvement, but there is room.
Here is the current Cubs hitters and their wRC+ compared to their career.
| Player | 2026 wRC+ | Career wRC+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crow-Armstrong | 155 | 117 | 38 |
| Kelly | 115 | 94 | 21 |
| Conforto | 126 | 116 | 10 |
| Shaw | 106 | 99 | 7 |
| Amaya | 99 | 94 | 5 |
| Swanson | 96 | 97 | -1 |
| Suzuki | 125 | 128 | -3 |
| Happ | 111 | 115 | -4 |
| Busch | 115 | 123 | -8 |
| Hoerner | 78 | 99 | -21 |
| Bregman | 96 | 129 | -33 |
This graph is actually pretty crazy, as the Cubs primary hitters have almost a perfect distribution of the wRC+ of their players compared to their career average. So, if we see regression from the mean for everyone, they would probably score around the same number of runs as the early part of the season.
If the Cubs can get a bit healthier with their pitching, and acquire a few arms to bolster the staff, the offense should be good enough to carry this team to the playoff. With their lack of top-line pitchers, expectations of a deep playoff run would seem unrealistic.
Cubs in 7 
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