Cubs Rotation: Ace, Embrace or Replace – 7/6

A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.

Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change

Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
I may need to eliminate this category, as there is no one even remotely close.

Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series

Brown had made it here before his injury.

Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game

Shota Imanaga – A leadoff home run to the Cardinals seemed appropriate. But he settled down a bit, and limited the damage to 2 runs over 4.2 innings. Sadly, he’s probably the most effective starter in the rotation right now.

Matthew Boyd – Boyd has had two decent starts, both victories. His pitch count has been somewhat limited after coming back from injury. Hopefully he can stretch out a little more, and give the Cubs 6 or 7 innings in one of these starts.

Colin Rea – Three decent starts in a row has brought his ERA down to 4.80. That puts him firmly in the mediocre range where almost all the starters for the Cubs currently reside. If the offense can stay hot (although we’d need to ignore the first two games against the Cardinals), mediocre might be good enough for a Wild Card spot..

Javier Assad – Assad my go back and forth between this and the lower tier, or potentially back to the bullpen. HE had a rough relief appearance, with 2 homers and 4 runs allowed over 2.2 innings in a game against the Padres that became too close for comfort. But then he shut out the Cardinals over 4.2 innings in a start the Cubs really needed to win. So he gets to be here for now.

Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent

David Peterson – There was real hope that having him pitch with the Cubs defense could make him much more effective. He held the Brewers to 2 runs over 5.2 innings, fortifying this hope. But he got absolutely shelled by the Cardinals to the tune of 9 hits 3 walks and 10 earned runs in only 3.2 innings. With Taillon coming back, I’m not quite sure what happens with Peterson. I’m really hoping he bounces back against Baltimore this week.

Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
One more bad start and Peterson will be here

Moved to Bullpen:

No one as of this update

Injured Or Sent to Minors:

Ben Brown – In a season of pitching injuries, this one hits particularly hard. Brown had become the Cubs best starter, and a possible guy to trust in a postseason game. The good news is that if they can figure out his neck issues, perhaps him Cabrera, Steele and Horton can anchor the rotation for the next couple of years…or perhaps starting in 2028 considering Horton’s injury. And maybe, just maybe, he can come back late this season.

Edward Cabrera – Cabrera managed to get in 4 starts before being injured. His velocity and spin were looking better, and his 4th start was finally decent – only 2 earned runs over 5 innings and no home runs allowed (after giving up 6 over his previous 3 starts). But he did walk four and allow 3 hits. It was a bummer that he was injured making a really nice play.

Jameson Taillon – 15-day IL – He should be back next week, and I’m not that excited by it. They’ll need to drop someone from the rotation if they want to stay with 5, and I’m guessing it might be Assad, as he’s shown the ability to pitch out of the bullpen for long appearances.

Jordan Wicks – AAA – With the addition of Peterson and the Taillon return, the Cubs may not need him in the rotation. But who knows.

Justin Steele – 60-day IL – The update that Steele will most likely not start this season came as a surprise. But with all the bad injury news this season, it almost felt par for the course. Should the Cubs just hold him back until 2027? Maybe.

Cade Horton – 60-day IL – The Cubs really seemed to have absorbed the blow of the loss of Horton in the first month of the season, but it would be really nice to have a guy who can shut another team out when the team really needs a win.