So you think the Cubs are doing badly?

Lots of fans are down on the Cubs this season, as it already seems like a disappointment. But there are several teams out there that would love to be in the same position as the Cubs.

Now projection systems are certainly fallible, but the do provide a perspective on the expectations fans can have about how their team should perform each season. And based on the ZIPS projections, there are a few teams really missing the mark.

Meanwhile, the Cubs are actually slightly outperforming their ZIPS projection, which was a .537 winning percentage, with an actual win percentage of .543. I think the hot start in April made everything think this should be a .600 team, but obviously that was not the case. Of course, this next 3-game series against the Brewers could move that number down.

There are currently 3 teams that are more than .100 points above their projected win total. The Tampa Bay Rays, the Washington Nationals, and, of course, the unstoppable force know as the Milwaukee Brewers. And the overperformance by the Brewers is probably one of the biggest reasons people are so down on the Cubs this year. Also, both the Cardinals and White Sox doing much better than expected may make the results on the North Side of Chicago seem less impressive by comparison.

But here are the teams really falling short of expectations:

1. Boston Red Sox
   Projected Win %: 0.556
   Actual Win %: 0.418
   Difference: -0.138
   ZIPS was bullish on these Sox, projecting them for 90 wins this season, highest in the American League. But those projections could not have been any more wrong, as the Red Sox current sit with the worst record in the AL. They don’t have many upcoming free agents, but I’d still expect them to be sellers at the deadline.
   
2. New York Mets
   Projected Win %: 0.549
   Actual Win %: 0.420
   Difference: -0.129
   The Cubs just saw first how how lousy the Mets can be. Bad pitching, inconsistent offense and terrible defense have led to another hugely disappointing season. They already shed David Peterson, but the real gems in the trade market will be Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes (who has a player option for 2027). While I would hate it, it would be funny to see the Brewers to bring back Peralta for the rest of the season – giving up much less than they got from the Mets in the offseason.
   
3. Detroit Tigers
   Projected Win %: 0.531
   Actual Win %: 0.420
   Difference: -0.111
   The were expected to dominate the AL Central, but instead, they are at the bottom with the Royals. They have a bunch of interesting upcoming veteran free agents that could be trade chips if they decide to sell including Gleyber Torres, Jack Flaherty, Kenly Jansen and Justin Verlander. But the real prize is, of course Tarik Skubal. He is really the biggest potential acquisition in all of baseball this year.
   
4. San Francisco Giants
   Projecting Win %: 0.519
   Actual Win %: 0.413
   Difference: -0.106
   Hiring a college coach to be their manager was a big swing. Acquiring Rafael Devers was a big swing. Unfortunately for the Giants, both appear to have been swings and misses. They were not even projected to be that great this season, but they have fallen well below that moderately-placed bar.

There are a few other teams that have been pretty large disappointments based on projections, including the Royals, Orioles and Blue Jays.

So when we post angry things about the Cubs on social media, it’s fair to say that things could be much, much worse.