A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.
The rotation without Cade Horton has been holding up. But the return of Matthew Boyd has not yet been the boost we hoped it would be. And just when we thought he might edge toward near Ace status, Shota suffered a setback.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
I may just need to remove this category for this season. But, in my estimation, there are very few true “Ace” pitchers in MLB as I’ve defined it here: Skenes, Skubal, Ohtani, Sale, Yamamoto. Jose Soriano ay have joined the club this season.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Imanaga was getting very close before his start against the Dodgers. But 5 runs in 5.1 innings just is not good enough.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Shota Imanaga – Maybe I’m being too harsh with Imanaga for his Dodgers start. He allowed a very uncharacteristic three walks, but did not allow a home run. And he allowed 1 run or fewer in his previous 4 starts. Hopefully, he can bounce back in his next outing against the Diamondbacks.
Edward Cabrera – It has been an interesting start to the season for Cabrera. He’s been a bit lucky, with a FIP of 3.99, but an ERA of 3.06. One disappointment is that his K% of 20.1% is lowest of the current 5 starters, while his BB% of 8.3% is worse that any of the starters except for Taillon. While his BB% is identical to 2025, the K% is down by 5 percentage points, so that will be something to continue to watch as the season progresses.
Matthew Boyd – He’s back from injury, and the results have been poor – with 7 earned runs allowed in only 8.2 innings. But stick with me here, because it is not going to easy to swallow. I think Matthew Boyd has pitched better than the results suggest. Among the 154 starting pitchers in MLB with at least 10 innings pitched, he is dead last with a .435 BABIP against. And his LOB% is 3rd worst in MLB at 44.7%.
Here are Boyd’s Baseball Savant percentages from 2025:
And here is 2026:
His expected ERA is only a little bit worse, and the expected batting average is .259. The really big difference is that hard hit percentage and average exit velocity. His barrel percentage has not changed all that much, so hopefully, Boyd has just been extremely unlucky so far this season, and we will see better results soon.
Colin Rea – I considered dropping Rea down after his 3.1 innings, 6 hits, 4 walks, 6 earned runs performance against the Dodgers. But they are the Dodgers, and he had only allowed 1 run in 3 of his past 4 starts. So we’ll keep him here for now.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Jameson Taillon – Taillon is what he is. He’s had a couple “gutsy” performances where he’s allowed runs, but not allowed the game to get out of hand, and he’s gone at least 5 or 6 innings to save the bullpen. In between, he had a nice 6 inning, 1 run allowed game against the Mets. But the offense will need to be geared up every time he pitches, as 6 or 7 runs might be needed to get the job done. And there is no one on the horizon that would be an obvious replacement.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
The good news is that none of the Cubs starters fit into this category because there’s really few replacements available. Assad would move back into the rotation if there was an injury, but he is needed for the bullpen right now, but I doubt he’d get another start right now unless absolultely necessary due to his inconsistency.
Moved to Bullpen:
Javier Assad – Assad continues to be up and down. He bounced back from his terrible outing against the Phillies on the 13th, with a great start against the Mets (5.2 innings, 3 hits and 1 ER allowed). And then a shutdown 10th inning against the Phillies, where the auto- runner was stranded. But following Rea on the 25, he got pounded for 7 hits and 6 earned runs in only 2.1 innings. But, he’s moved to the bullpen, so we’ll deal with his relief appearances later.
Injured:
Justin Steele – They say that when it rains it pours. Well, in the case of pitching injuries for the Cubs, when it pours, there’s hail and wind damage that also comes along. Justin Steele had a flexor injury during his rehab, and he will be shut down for at least a month. This puts his return in late June or early July, and I’d expect we won’t see him until the All-Star Break at the earliest. This could also make things tricky for the Trade Deadline, as the Cubs may not know if he will be returning at all by then, which might necessitate being more aggressive in getting starting pitching help, which would be very expensive.
Cade Horton – His surgery turned out to be the more serious UCL reconstruction, so we may not even see him back in 2027. Sigh.
Cubs in 7 
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