The Cubs have been very bad about leaving runners on base this season. Yesterday, was a prime example, as they left 5 men on in the first two innings. It felt especially painful, as in the bottom of the 2nd, after the Dodgers had score 3 in the first, the Cubs had the bases loaded with one out, and Hoerner and Bregman due up.
Nico barely missed out on a walk on a ball that nicked the upper outside corner of the zone, and then swung at two pitches that were balls – fouling one off and swinging and striking out on a high fastball. Then, Bregman bounced out to third. The inability to tighten up the game continued, as the Cubs stranded runners in the next couple of innings, and after the Dodgers added insurance runs, the game seemed to be over.
Overall, the Cubs left 12 men on base, and were 0 for 8 with runners in scoring position. And despite scoring 6 runs, the Dodgers only left 4. So while it felt like a one-sided game, it was really much closer than it appeared.
The Cubs now lead the majors in runners left on, at 232 – which is 14 higher than the next closest team, the Mariners. Meanwhile, opponents have left on 167, which is lowest in the majors. Obviously, the difference of 65 also tops the majors.
At his rate the Cubs would leave 1342 baserunners on base in 2026. Here are the highs over the past 6 seasons:
| Season | Team | Left on Base |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Chicago Cubs | *1342 |
| 2025 | Atlanta Braves | 1160 |
| 2024 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1149 |
| 2023 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1183 |
| 2022 | San Diego Padres | 1174 |
| 2021 | Washington Nationals | 1185 |
*Projected
So, is this lack of clutch hitting, bad luck or something else?
One positive of having lots of runners on base is that the runners are getting there to begin with. The Cubs are second to the Dodgers with a .354 OBP and are third in batting average at .263. But that average is .282 with the bases empty and .246 with men on. The OBP is .376 with the bases empty and .333 with men on.
Last season, the numbers were reversed, with a .241 average with the bases empty and .261 with men on, which is more understandable. When runners are on, the pitcher can be distracted, and defenses sometime have to shift. In fact, the MLB batting average with the bases empty in .236, versus .250 with men on.
Even the team that finished with the most LOB last season, the Atlanta Braves, had a higher batting average with runners on versus with the bases empty. In fact, no team last season finished with a higher batting average with the bases empty as opposed to with runners on, with only the Mets having the same batting average.
So, looking at these numbers, it would seem that maintaining such a large split between batting average with runners on versus bases empty can’t continue. I would expect the Cubs to have their number regress to the mean, with a higher batting average with runners on base and a lower batting average with the bases empty as we move forward. This should lead to more runs being scored, and less frustration for the fans and players.
But is luck also playing a role? If you take a look at the Cubs BABIP, they are hitting an extremely high .331 with the bases empty. With runners on, that number drops down to .292. Based on the batting average numbers, the disparity if what we would expect. But the averages for MLB are .285 with the bases empty and .296 with runners on base. If that luck with the bases empty reverses itself, we would expect many fewer hits with the bases empty and slightly more hits with runners on.
But BABIP can’t be considered completely about luck, as otherwise, you’d see nearly the same values for every team every year. Last season, the Red Sox had an overall .307 BABIP, which was highest in MLB, while the Guardians were lowest with a .268 BABIP. If the Cubs, who currently are .311 overall, can maintain being one of the better teams in MLB, their number with runners on base should climb, leading to more runs.
There is no conclusive evidence for why the Cubs are leaving so many runners on base. But I don’t believe this current rate is sustainable, based on the numbers we’ve seen from past seasons. So there are really only a couple of ways that I see this going:
- The optimist in me believes that this will mean that more of the runners will be crossing the plate.
- The pessimist is worried that we might see fewer baserunners overall, which is not what we want.
As far as why other teams have such a low LOB%, at this point it appears to be good pitching, as the average with runners on is actually lower that with the bases empty. With so few left on base, we would expect these numbers to be reversed. The Cubs have the 4th lowest WHIP and OBP against, meaning fewer runners to leave on base. But if the trend continues, it might be something to dive into.
Cubs in 7 
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