A bi-weekly feature on how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or always statistics driven…just my gut feel.
It’s been a rough start for the Cubs rotation. Not from a results perspective, but we’ve already seen the top 2 starters go down with injury – Cade Horton for the whole season. The first pass of the replacements was great, but we crashed back to reality last night with a very bad Javier Assad performance against the Phillies.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
With Horton out for the year, this may be an empty category for the entire season. Cabrera has shown some flashes, but unless a rade for Tarik Skubal happens, I’m not sure any Cubs pitcher will qualify here.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
I need to see more from Cabrera to move him here. We also have the chance that the Shota Imanaga resurgence is real.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Edward Cabrera – He had two great starts followed by a not great start. He only allowed 2 baserunners in start 1, but his control has been a bit shaky in the last two starts, with 5 and 3 walks, respectively. Until Boyd gets back, the Cubs will be leaning heavily on him and Imanaga to keep the team afloat against tough competition. We’ll see if he is up to the challenge.
Shota Imanaga – Imanaga was raked over the coals for his first start, where two bloop hits preceded an unlikely home run swing. But he’s had two excellent starts since, allowing only 1 earned run, 3 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 13 over 11 innings. He also broke his long streak of giving up home runs in every appearance. Pitching with the wind blowing in his last start was a big plus, and there will more home runs allowed this season. But his fastball and splitter velocities from 2024 have returned, and he might actually become the Cubs’ Ace again. Perhaps I’m way too bullish on the possibility, but I like what I’ve seen so far, even in the first game he lost.
Colin Rea – It’s not surprising that Rea has move back into the rotation. But it’s a bummer that it happened so soon, and will continue until Steele is ready to come back. But considering the early starter injuries, he may be back in the rotation for all of 2026. Picking up his option was the biggest no-brainer of the offseason, despite the trade for Cabrera and eventual return of Steele. And he proved why in his first start, where he was solid.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Jameson Taillon – Taillon has been OK in his first three starts. The major difference between the two at Wrigley may have just been the direction of the wind, with at least 2 of the 3 homers he allowed in his last start being wind aided. While I’m not confident when he starts, I’m not ready to see him dropped from the rotation. Especially with the Jekyll and Hyde we’ve seen from the next pitcher.
Javier Assad – It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.
5.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 3 SO
4.1 IP, 9 R, 11 H, 2 BB, 3 SO
The first Assad is a guy who might be able to stay in the rotation, no matter who gets healthy. The second Assad is a guy that needs to go back to Iowa, and should move to the back of the line among potential replacements if the Cubs need a starter due to injury. I think he’ll get one more start before Boyd gets back, and that might seal his fate. With the decent offense the Cubs should have, they need their starters to keep the game competitive. 3, 4, 5 or even 6 runs allowed (see Taillon’s last start) over 5 innings is essential. But to give up 9 in fewer than 5 innings is unacceptable. Assad has been the king of stranding runners he’s allowed, but the dam broke in his last start, and almost all of them scored.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
Who is the real Assad? His next start will determine if he falls to this spot, and heads back to Iowa when Matthew Boyd comes back.
Injured:
Justin Steele – Last year, Cade Horton ended up being the true replacement for Steele, especially in the 2nd half of the season. In 2026, the roles are reversed, as we are now counting on Steele to fill the massive gap left by Horton’s injury – most likely in June.
Cade Horton – Talk about a bucket of freezing water being thrown on the 2026 season, when it had only just begun. He only got through 1 full start. His injury, combined with the non-clutch hitting from the offense has made the start to this season one that we’d all like to forget. While we will see Horton again, it’s going to be a long while. The bigger question is whether his career is going to be a case of recurring injuries. He had elbow surgery in college, and shoulder issues in the minors, so I’m going to be hopeful he can come back strong and be the pitcher we saw in the back half of 2025, but I’m not going to count on it.
Matthew Boyd – Boyd had a rough inning on opening day, and came back strong before going on the IL with a bicep injury. The best version of Boyd will be needed as the Cubs move forward.
Cubs in 7 
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