Cubs Offseason Position Review: Relief Pitcher

A look back at how each position performed in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. These posts will compare the MLB rankings from 2024 with those produced in 2025, as well as individual statistics for all players who played the position in 2025.

Here are the other entries:
Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base
Outfield
Designated Hitter
Starting Pitcher

Positional Rankings: 2025 vs 2024

Stat	2024	2025	Change
RA9-WAR	4.6 (10th)	4.4 (10th)	+1.4 (+0)
WAR	3.0 (19th)	3.1 (19th)	+0.1 (+0)
ERA	3.81 (t12th)	3.78 (11th)	+0.03 (+1)
WHIP	1.29 (t19th)	1.14 (1st)	+0.15 (+18)
xFIP	4.08 (17th)	3.98 (5th)	+0.10 (+12)
AVG	.230 (14th)	.236 (14th)	-.006 (+0)
HR/9	0.99 (12th)	1.17 (20th)	-0.18 (-8)
K/9	9.25 (11th)	8.53 (20th)	-0.72 (-9)
BB/9	3.76 (23rd)	2.95 (1st)	+0.81 (+22)
LOB%	73.5 (t6th)	73.9% (5th)	-0.4% (+1)

Values are total and then MLB rank in parentheses. Negative changes represent decrease in measure of success
RA9-WAR = Wins Above Replacement calculated based on runs allowed
xFIP = Expected Fielding independent pitching

In 2025, the Cubs changed almost everything about their bullpen, but almost nothing changed in terms of the outcome. It is almost creepy that their ERA, RA9-WAR, WAR, and Avg against were nearly identical between 2024 and 2025, despite an almost complete turnover of who was pitching. There were minor differences in WHIP and BB/9, as Cubs relievers has the best control in MLB in 2025, but they did allow more home runs than in 2024.

There also seemed to be a trend that there were some bumps early on, the team continued to try to add arms as the season continued, and a trusted group emerged who pitched well toward the end of the season. Although, July was a very rough month for the bullpen in 2025

The reasons behind the turnover was partially due to how the Cubs have built their bullpen over the past couple of seasons. They have avoided long-term contracts typically. Although the offer to Tanner Scott was an outlier, and they appear to be fortunate that he chose the Dodgers. Instead, they’ve signed lower price free agents – including minor league free agents, picked up players discarded from other teams via minor trades or waiver pickups, and filled in spots from their minor leagues.

Here were the primary relievers in 2024, how they were acquired and their contract:

• Drew Smyly – free agent (as starter), 1-yr contract + option (declined)
• Hector Neris – free agent, 1-yr contract
• Tyson Miller – traded from Mariners for Jake Slaughter, pre-arbitration
• Porter Hodge – promoted from minor leagues, pre-arbitration
• Mark Leiter – free-agent (initially minor league FA), 1-year + arbitation
• Hayden Wesneski – traded from Yankees for Scott Effross, arbitration
• Ben Brown – promoted from minor leagues, pre-arbitration
• Jordan Wicks – promoted from minor leagues, pre-arbitration
• Keegan Thompson – promoted from minor leagues, pre-arbitration
• Jorge Lopez – waivers, took on 1-yr contract
• Nate Pearson – traded from Blue Jays for Yohendrick Pinango and Josh Rivera, arbitration
• Ethan Roberts – promoted from minor leagues, pre-arbitration

So, no long term deals. Brown had the biggest role in 2025, mostly as a starter. Wicks, Hodge, Pearson and Roberts had some innings with the major league team in 2025, but did not make the post-season roster – and Pearson was released. Miller and Thompson were around in the minors, but were not promoted. Neris was released and Leiter was traded during the 2024 season, Smyly had his option declined for 2025, and Lopez was allowed to leave.

So it was time to rebuild. Here are the relief pitchers the Cubs added in 2025:

• Brad Keller – minor league FA, $1.5M for 1 year
• Daniel Palencia – promoted from minor leagues, pre-arbitration
• Caleb Thiebar – free agent, $2.75M for 1 year
• Drew Pomeranz – waivers, minor league contract
• Ryan Pressly – traded from Astors for Juan Bello, on final year of contract ($9.2M)
• Chris Flexen – minor league FA, $774K
• Ryan Brasier- traded from Dodgers, on final year of contract ($3M)
• Andrew Kittredge – traded from Orioles for Wilfri De La Cruz, on 1yr deal + option ($3.2M)
• Taylor Rogers – traded from Reds for Ivan Brethowr , on final year of contract ($1.9M)
• Aaron Civale – waivers, on final year of contract ($1.2M)
• Michael Soroka, traded from Nationals for Ronny Cruz and Christian Franklin, on final year of contract ($2.9M)

So, the Cubs owed about $2.5M coming into 2025 for Pearson and Julian Merryweather. They added about $15 million for Thielbar, Pressly and Brasier. They also owed Keller $1.5 million when he made the team. Then they had to pay prorated portions of the salaries of Kittredge, Rogers, Civale and Soroka for $9.2M. So, there was about $30M for the entire bullpen.

The Bullpen had some ups and downs this season

Month	IP	RA9-WAR	WAR	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
March/April	113.1	-0.6	0.5	4.76	4.85	1.46	7.62	4.69	0.79
May	102.1	2.6	1.5	2.37	4.08	1.08	7.83	2.99	0.44
June	92.1	2.5	0.8	2.44	4.19	1.13	6.63	2.14	0.88
July	84	-1.4	-1.1	6.00	4.38	1.38	8.25	2.36	2.46
August	94.2	0.9	1.3	3.99	3.17	1.25	9.89	2.76	1.14
September	92.2	1.4	0.8	3.21	3.07	1.03	11.17	2.33	1.55
Postseason	46.2			2.31	4.79	1.07	6.36	3.28	1.16

While the results were great in May and June, the underlying numbers were not great. The bullpen had a very low strikeout rate and the FIP was above 4. So, I think a combination of good defense and good luck – specifically with the low home run rates – made the bullpen look a little better than it was. Conversely, the FIP dropped and the K rate was very good in August and September. The numbers in the postseason resembled the May/June numbers, which may have been the result of tougher competition.

July was just a mess, with 22 home runs allowed by the bullpen during the month, and even Brad Keller and Drew Pomeranz sporting ERAs of 6.75 and 7.11, respectively.

I wrote about the Cubs bullpen shift from Plan A to Plan B to Plan C here: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/07/30/time-for-bullpen-plan-c/ and how they used other team’s castoffs to supplement the bullpen in 2025: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/06/08/the-40-man-roster-dfas-and-building-a-better-bullpen/

Individual Stats as a relief pitcher

With so many pitchers, I’m splitting this into three groups: inside the circle of trust and outside the circle of trust, and not in the picture

Inside the Circle of Trust:

Name	IP	RA9-WAR	WAR	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Brad Keller	68.2	2.1	1.2	2.10	3.35	0.98	9.57	2.88	0.52
Caleb Thielbar	58.0	1.6	1.1	2.64	3.68	0.88	8.69	2.02	0.78
Daniel Palencia	52.2	1.1	1.0	2.91	3.37	1.14	10.42	2.73	0.85
Drew Pomeranz	46.1	1.3	0.6	1.94	3.64	1.06	10.29	2.53	0.97
Chris Flexen	39.2	0.5	-0.2	2.72	4.91	1.11	4.54	2.04	1.36
Andrew Kittredge	21.2	0.3	0.6	3.32	1.45	0.83	13.29	1.25	1.25
Taylor Rogers	17.2	-0.1	-0.1	5.09	3.49	1.25	9.68	2.04	2.04
Colin Rea	16.0	0.6	0.2	0.56	4.34	0.88	4.50	0.56	0.00

Most of the folks on this list are no-brainers. Flexen ran out of steam, and was released, but he had an excellent stretch after being promoted. Rogers was good against lefties down the stretch, but made no impact in the playoffs. And Colin Rea barely spent any time in the bullpen before moving to the rotation, but he had great numbers as a releiver.

Outside the Circle of Trust

Name	IP	RA9-WAR	WAR	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Ryan Pressly	41.1	-0.3	-0.3	4.35	4.54	1.52	6.10	3.70	1.31
Porter Hodge	33.0	-0.7	-0.6	6.27	4.03	1.58	10.91	4.91	2.45
Ben Brown	30.2	-0.4	0.4	4.99	2.86	1.24	11.74	2.64	1.17
Ryan Brasier	25.0	0.0	0.3	4.68	3.76	1.28	6.84	1.80	0.72
Julian Merryweather	18.2	-0.3	-0.1	5.79	4.62	1.82	7.23	5.30	0.96
Nate Pearson	14.2	-0.5	-0.2	9.20	7.27	2.18	4.30	6.14	1.23
Jordan Wicks	14.1	-0.4	0.1	6.28	3.25	1.74	8.16	0.63	1.26
Aaron Civale	13.0	0.3	0.0	2.08	3.33	0.54	9.69	0.00	2.08
Michael Soroka	6.1	-0.1	0.0	0.00	5.14	1.11	7.11	5.68	0.00

There were a few major disappointments on this list. Pressly was acquired to be the closer and Hodge was envisioned as the heir-apparent after his great finish to 2024. But Pressly was a bust, appearing to have hit a wall at 37 years old.

Hodge had injury and velocity issues in the middle of the year, and while his velocity returned, he just did not do well enough to be trusted to make the post-season roster.

Ben Brown did a little better as a reliever than he did as a starter, which was not saying very much. They did put him on the NLDS roster, and he had a good appearance there.

Civale did well as a late season waiver pickup. Soroka, who was traded to be a starter, go hurt in his first game and pitched a couple innings at the end of the season and in the playoffs.

Not in the picture

Name	IP	RA9-WAR	WAR	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Génesis Cabrera	9.1	-0.3	-0.3	8.68	4.86	1.39	7.71	2.89	3.86
Gavin Hollowell	9.1	0.0	0.0	4.82	4.56	1.71	9.64	6.75	0.96
Ethan Roberts	9.0	-0.1	-0.2	6.00	5.20	1.33	6.00	2.00	3.00
Eli Morgan	7.1	-0.4	-0.3	12.27	6.00	2.05	4.91	3.68	3.68
Brooks Kriske	6.0	0.2	0.0	0.00	6.61	1.17	6.00	7.50	0.00

Morgan was the big disappointment on this list, as his acquisition from Cleveland seemed promising. But he was ineffective and then injured, and did not make enough progress to rejoin the major league team. The Cubs’ obsession with Hollowell is odd, but there must be something about him that has caused them to decide to keep him on the roster when many other decent players have been released.

Brad Keller

For Keller, who was a starter early in his career, and was released by the lowly White Sox in 2024, this season was a career resurrection. Looking at his pitch percentage and velocity tells a lot about why he succeeded:

Season	FA%	vFA	SI%	vSI	SL%	vSL	CU%	vCU	CH%	vCH
2018	44.5%	94.3	25.1%	93.1	26.2%	85.6			4.2%	88.5
2019	41.7%	93.7	25.2%	92.9	31.4%	84.9			1.7%	88.0
2020	38.3%	92.8	21.4%	92.3	38.2%	84.6			2.0%	88.7
2021	29.6%	94.2	29.3%	93.7	34.8%	86.1			6.2%	90.0
2022	35.3%	94.5	22.7%	93.4	34.7%	86.9	1.5%	87.8	5.8%	90.3
2023	31.1%	93.3	10.4%	92.5	26.5%	84.3	19.7%	85.1	12.3%	90.8
2024	37.7%	93.8	5.0%	92.6	42.8%	85.6	1.5%	81.1	13.1%	88.6
2025	42.6%	97.2	14.0%	96.7	31.7%	86.8			11.7%	92.7

He basically gaind 3.4 MPH on his 4-seam fastball ad 4.1 MPH on his sinker in 2025, and used those two pitches much more instead of his slider. His changeup also added 4.1 MPH.

Here is the Statcast value of these pitches across his career:

Season	wFA	wSI	wSL	wCU	wCH
2018	8.2	11.0	1.5		-3.2
2019	3.1	0.6	10.3		-0.3
2020	6.1	2.4	10.3		-0.1
2021	-13.1	-3.6	-2.3		-2.5
2022	-2.7	-7.2	-1.2	-0.7	-1.1
2023	-6.0	0.6	0.6	-0.4	1.8
2024	-3.5	-2.8	-4.7	-0.1	0.8
2025	8.5	4.1	5.8		2.3

Daniel Palencia

Palencia was another revelation in 2025, finally breaking out from his role as “hard throwing reliever who just can’t cut it in the majors”.

His control was the key to unlocking his effectiveness, going from 4.45 BB/9 in 2023, to 7.36 in 2024 (in only 14.2 innings), to 2.73 in 2025.

His fastball velocity is elite, averaging about 99.6 MPH, awhile his slider was at 88.5. He throws those two pitches almost exclusively, so it will be interesting if he even attempts to add another pitch to his arsenal for the future.

Palencia did go through an injury at the end of 2025, and was a real quesiton mark for the playoffs. And while he was not put back into the closer role in the playoffs, he took on a new role of the middle inning stopper, going 7,2 innings over 6 games, allowing 5 hits, 2 walks and 3 runs, all of a home run allowed to Jackson Chourio, where he grooved an 0-2 101 MPH fastball in the middle of the zone, that Chourio hit 419ft out to centerfield. I think we all wish he had gone with a slider on that pitch.

Caleb Thielbar

Thielbar was a relatively cheap signing as a left-handed reliever, getting $2.75 million for one year. And he gave the Cubs much more than they could have expected.

Unlike Keller, Thielbar did not see a big velocity jump in his fastball, but he did throw his slider harder than he ever had: 84.6 MPH versus and average of 80.9 in his career and 81.6 in 2024.

But the big change from 2024 to 2025 was his control, where his BB/9 dropped from 4.56 to 2.01, which was more in line with how he’d seen success over his career.

He was better against lefties versus righties, but the splits were not crazy: .161/.211/.276 verses left-handers and 205/.248/.342 verses right-handers.

Andrew Kittredge

Kittredge was a bit polarizing, as he was trusted as a late inning guy, but did give up a couple big home runs in his brief tenure with the Cubs. Out of the 9 runs he gave up for the Cubs during the regular season, 6 came via the home run.

His ERA was a respectable 3.32, but his peripherals in the regular season were even better, with a 1.67 expected ERA and 2.40 FIP, with 13.29 K/9 and 1.25 BB/9.

His postseason was not as successful, giving up 5 hits in 5 innings, including 2 home runs, and walking 1.

Porter Hodge

Hodge was a real surprise in 2024, with a 1.88 ERA in 43 innings, 10.88 K/9 and only 0.42 HR/9. Things took a bad turn in 2025, as his ERA was 4.91, and his HR/9 ballooned to 2.45. The good news was that his strikeout rate styed the same.

I wrote about Hodge here, and his problem with huge innings: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/08/27/porter-hodge-and-the-curse-of-the-bad-inning/

Part of this could have been attributed to injury. He had a left oblique injury in May, and then a shoulder impingement in July. The July injury was preceeded by a bad inning against the Twins when his velocity was way down: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/07/09/porter-hodges-bad-outing/

Hodge’s velocity came back toward the end of the season, but his propensity for giving up home runs continued. He had a nice stretch in Early September, with 5 straight scoreless outings, where he gave up no hits and 1 walk over 4.2 innings. But in his final 4 outings in September he gave up 7 hits and 3 walks in only 3.2 innings, including 3 home runs. So, instead of being a potent piece for the playoff bullpen, he went back to AAA and did not make the playoff roster.

year where more of those runners score is something that the front office needs to consider if he is still viewed as a potential starter.

2026 Outlook

Player	2026 Contract
Andrew Kittredge	$9M club option
Colin Rea	$6M club option
Javier Assad	$2M in 2026 (est. arbitration)
Eli Morgan	$1.25M in 2026 (est. arbitration)
Daniel Palencia	$6.75K in 2026 (est. arbitration)
Porter Hodge	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Ethan Roberts	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Jordan Wicks	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Gavin Hollowell	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Ben Brown	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Luke Little	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Jack Neely	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)

The Colin Rea option seems like an easy decision, based on his ability to start or relieve. But the Kittredge might be a tougher call. $9M is fairly steep for one season of a 36-year-old reliever. He pitched pretty well for the Cubs, and there are so many players they stand to lose, that I could see them keeping him around as a primary setup man.

The only other decisions will be whether to non-tender Javier Assad or Eli Morgan. Assad is affordable for a swing man, but Morgan is not a sure thing if the Cubs feel that money would be better used elsewhere. Although, the Cubs must have had a good reason to trade for him, and if he can stay healthy, he might be effective.

Palencia is the only sure reliever (who can’t start) to make the team, and will probably return as the closer. Then come the number of interesting arms who might be able to fill in some of the bullpen spots:

• Porter Hodge – if he can return to his 2024 form, he could be a good setup man
• Ben Brown – he might be better served as a reliever, and has good stff
• Luke Little – a lefty with a power arm, can he learn to harness it, similar to the jump we saw from Palencia in 2025
• Gavin Hollowell – does this guy have something that only the Cubs front office has seen?

I think the Cubs are hoping that at least a couple of those guys can step it up in 2025, but they will still most likely be active on the free agents market to find the next great bargain. Its doubtful they will find a trio as effective as Keller, Pomeranz and Thielbar, but I’m sure they are going to try.

Interestingly, the most expensive member of the 2025 bullpen, Ryan Pressly did not work out. And the free agent they most coveted, Tanner Scott, signed a 4-year, $72M contract and managed a 4.74 ERA, only 23 saves (with 10 blown saves), and did not make it on the postseason roster due to “lower body” injury.

Of the top 10 relief pitcher in terms of value, there was a mix of big contracts and more affordable layers:

#	Name	Team	RA9-WAR	Salary
1	Aroldis Chapman	BOS	3.4	$10.75M
2	Edwin Díaz	NYM	2.8	$20.5M
3	Abner Uribe	MIL	2.7	$762K
4	Bryan Abreu	HOU	2.6	$3.45M
5	Dennis Santana	PIT	2.5	$1.4M
6	Mike Vasil	CHW	2.5	$181K
7	Jhoan Duran	2 Tms	2.4	$4.13M
8	Tyler Rogers	2 Tms	2.4	$5.25M
9	Tony Santillan	CIN	2.3	$1M
10	Garrett Whitlock	BOS	2.3	$4.69M

Let’s compare that to the top 10 reliever salaries (removing players were expected to be starters):

#	Name	Team	RA9-WAR	Salary
1	Edwin Díaz	NYM	2.8	$20.5M
2	Josh Hader	HOU	1.6	$19M
3	Tanner Scott	LAD	-0.4	$18M
4	Raisel Iglasias	ATL	1.5	$14.5M
5	Kirby Yates	LAD	-0.4	$13M
6	Rafael Montero	DET	-0.3	$11.5M
7	Carlos Estevez	KC	1.9	$11.1M
8t	6 tied	various		$11M

So, the lesson here is that spending on top line free agent pitchers is typically a bad move. So I would not expect the Cubs to go after Edwin Diaz, who is probably opting out of his deal. Nor will they probably go after Robert Suarez (another opt out), Raisel Iglasias or Devin Williams. I’d also expect Brad Keller to go off to greener ($$$) pastures as the closer of someone like the A’s. The Cubs might also be priced out of bringing back Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz. And I’m skeptical that they’ll give $9M to Andrew Kittredge.

So watch for the Cubs to sign some lesser names in free agency they they hope will hit in 2026 combined with a couple of the younger guys and then some acquisitions during the season in 2026.

And if they can piece together another successful bullpen, I think we would have to give them credit for finding the kind of competitive advantage that all teams are looking for. Instead of spending money on big name relievers, use that money on position players or starters.