Cubs Offseason Position Review: Starting Pitcher

A look back at how each position performed in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. These posts will compare the MLB rankings from 2024 with those produced in 2025, as well as individual statistics for all players who played the position in 2025.

Here are the other entries:
Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop
Third Base
Outfield
Designated Hitter

Positional Rankings: 2025 vs 2024

Stat	2024	2025	Change
RA9-WAR	14.4 (8th)	15.8 (8th)	+1.4 (+0)
WAR	11.3 (15th)	10.3 (17th)	-1.0 (-2)
ERA	3.77 (t5th)	3.83 (8th)	-0.06 (-3)
WHIP	1.22 (t8th)	1.14 (1st)	+0.8 (+7)
xFIP	4.11 (18th)	4.28 (23rd)	-.017 (-5)
AVG	.241 (t12th)	.236 (t8th)	+.005 (+4)
HR/9	1.23 (18th)	1.34 (23rd)	-0.13 (-5)
K/9	7.95 (26th)	7.53 (27th)	-0.42 (-1)
BB/9	2.57 (6th)	2.26 (1st)	+0.31 (+5)

Values are total and then MLB rank in parentheses. Negative changes represent decrease in measure of success
RA9-WAR = Wins Above Replacement calculated based on runs allowed
xFIP = Expected Fielding independent pitching

These numbers and ranks confirm my overall impression of Cubs Starting Pitchers in 2025: solid, but not spectacular. It was a rotation that does not have huge swing and miss capability, and depends on limiting walks and letting the defense make lots of plays. It leaves them susceptible to home runs, but by limiting baserunners, the home runs do not produce as much damage.

To be able to maintain the production of 2024 despite the season-ending injury to Justin Steele is a credit to players like Colin Rea, Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton, the front office that acquired/promoted them and Craig Counsell, who managed them.

Around the league, injuries to pitchers, especially starters seems to be an epidemic, and the Cubs had to struggle with this, even beyond the Steele injury.

Individual Stats as a starting pitcher

Name	GS	IP	RA9-WAR	WAR	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	HR/9
Matthew Boyd	31	179.2	4.4	3.4	3.21	4.22	1.09	7.71	0.95
Shota Imanaga	25	144.2	2.8	0.9	3.73	4.51	0.99	7.28	1.93
Colin Rea	27	143.1	1.7	1.6	4.33	4.31	1.29	7.47	1.26
Jameson Taillon	23	129.2	2.7	1.1	3.68	4.34	1.06	6.80	1.67
Cade Horton	22	114.0	3.6	2.2	2.53	4.31	1.09	7.26	0.71
Ben Brown	15	75.2	-0.5	0.7	6.30	3.84	1.52	9.63	1.67
Javier Assad	7	34.2	0.7	0.4	3.89	4.59	1.18	5.71	0.78
Justin Steele	4	22.2	0.2	0.0	4.76	3.64	1.15	8.34	1.99

Note: Only pitchers with 5+ innings pitched were included to remove openers.

Matthew Boyd

I was luke-warm on the signing of Boyd, despite his success in the 2024 playoffs. My primary concern was his health, as he had not logged more that 79 innings since 2019. In addition, his numbers in those seasons had bounced up and down year by year.

Season	Team	GS	IP	ERA	xFIP	WAR	RA9-WAR
2015	2 Tms	12	57.1	7.53	5.20	-0.6	-1.2
2016	DET	18	97.1	4.53	4.74	1.1	1.3
2017	DET	25	135.0	5.27	5.01	2.1	0.6
2018	DET	31	170.1	4.39	4.72	2.2	2.4
2019	DET	32	185.1	4.56	3.88	3.2	2.6
2020	DET	12	60.1	6.71	4.97	-0.1	-0.5
2021	DET	15	78.2	3.89	4.79	1.4	1.5
2022	SEA	0	13.1	1.35	4.41	0.1	0.4
2023	DET	15	71.0	5.45	4.37	0.9	0.0
2024	CLE	8	39.2	2.72	3.89	0.9	0.8
2024	CHC	31	179.2	3.21	4.22	3.4	4.4

Not only did Boyd lead the Cubs in Innings, he arguably had his best season as a pro at age 34. The front office should be applauded for signing Boyd to a relatively reasonable contract (2 years, $29M [14.5M AAV)), especially for the price they paid with minimal commitment.

Unfortunately, there was a downturn toward the end of the season, where his command seemed to suffer. I did a deep dive on his numbers first vs second half, and looked at reasons why he struggled in Game 1 of the NLDS: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/10/09/oh-boyd/

He bounced back in Game 4 of the NLDS, with 4.2 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 3 BB, and 6 SO. But he only logged 9.2 innings in his three starts in the playoffs.

Shota Imanaga

It was a deciding Game 5 in the NLDS, and Shota Imanaga was the pitcher who was next up in the rotation. This scenario in 2024 would have been a no-brainer, And even through much of 2025, it would have seemed like a great option.

But when the opportunity arose, Craig Counsell decided not to go with Imanaga, making it a bullpen game where he did not appear. It is somewhat ironic that one of the primary reasons for staying away from Imanaga was his propensity to give up home runs, and the only runs the Brewers scored that night were on home runs. But ultimately, the lack of offense was much more to blame than the pitching, so Imanaga omission was not that big of a deal for that night.

It is a big deal, however, when thinking about Imanaga’s future with the Cubs.

His propensity for giving up home runs became almost a running joke in my Social Media posts, as the streak went on 11 consecutive starts, including the postseason. He’s what I wrote in my post on 10/7:

Home runs, home runs and more home runs. Imanaga has managed to limit the damage most of the season, but he got bitten with a huge 3-run homer in game 2, which changed the complexion of the game. During the regular season, he gave up 31 home runs, but 25 of them were solo shots, with only 4 2-run homers and 2 3-run homers. In the postseason, his 3 homers allowed were 1 solo,1 2-run, and 1 3-run. So while his propensity for giving up the longball was mitigated in the regular season, it has proved lethal in the postseason. Just think, if he gives up 2 solo shots last night, the Cubs still lead 3-2, and might manage their pitching differently.
Ultimately, this home run problem could impact the Cubs decision in the offseason of where to pick up the option for the rest of his contract. It’s a complicated option structure, so a deeper analysis can wait until the offseason. But what might have seemed like a no-brainer may require serious consideration.

When he got to the Cubs, he had an approach that did not seem like it could work: lots of high fastball with lower than average velocity. But his other mix of pitches seemed to throw hitters off, and he was able to sneak the high fastball by them or induce weak fly balls. But there was some definite regression between 2024 and 2025.

Here is an overall comparison of numbers:

Season	GS	IP	RA9-WAR	WAR	ERA	xFIP	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
2024	29	173.1	4.4	3.1	2.91	3.62	1.02	9.03	1.45	1.40
2025	25	144.2	2.8	0.9	3.73	4.51	0.99	7.28	1.62	1.93

Basically, his number regressed across the board, except for his WHIP. Let’s look at the stats for his 4-seam fastball, to see if that explains some of the regression:

Season	Pitches	Velocity	BB%	K%	SLG	ISO	wRC+ vs
2024	1246	91.7	5.9%	18.6%	.470	.241	112
2025	1059	91.3	7.6%	15.9%	.511	.282	140

There was a tick of velocity lost, but it does not seem like it was that bad. But all the other numbers were worse.

But he had nearly as much regression with his splitter:

Season	Pitches	Velocity	BB%	K%	SLG	ISO	wRC+ vs
2024	791	82.9	2.1%	34.6&	.281	.078	45
2025	683	83.0	1.9%	25.5%	.368	.142	76

One of the other differences between 2024 and 2025 was run support, which may have impacted the perception how how well Imanaga pitched. In 2024, the Cubs averaged 5.51 runs per start, leading to a 15-3 W?L record. In 2025, the support dropped to 2.48 runs per start, fewer than half the runs per game, and his record with 9-8, making hos performance in 2025 look worse than it was.

Imanaga did suffer an injury to his hamstring this season, so lets try to take a look at his numbers before and after the injury, to see if that could explain some of his regression in 2024. He was injured on May 4th and returned on June 26.

Injury	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9
Pre	44.2	2.85	1.11	6.92	2.85	1.42
Post	99.3	4.17	0.95	7.52	1.08	2.18

Interestingly, his walk and strikeout numbers got better after coming back from the injury. So it does not seem to be completely a command issue. But the home run rate jumped significantly.

I’m not pitching guru, but based solely on these numbers, it seemed like perhaps he was giving into too many hitters, and instead of risking a walk, was challenging them with a pitch that they were able to take out of the ballpark. This might require a bigger deep dive, to look at the home run pitches, and counts.

Count	PA (2025)	HR (2025)	HR% (2025)	PA (2024)	HR (2024)	HR% 2024
0-0	64	4	6.3%	91	9	9.9%
1-0	32	5	15.6%	51	3	5.9%
2-0	9	2	22.2%	7	1	14.3%
3-0	5	0	0%	2	0	0%
0-1	64	4	6.3%	69	4	5.8%
1-1	52	4	7.7%	60	2	3.3%
2-1	27	2	7.4%	33	5	15.2%
3-1	16	1	6.3%	20	0	0%
0-2	55	1	1.8%	74	0	0%
1-2	95	3	3.2%	117	1	0.9%
2-2	81	4	4.9%	96	2	2.0%
3-2	67	1	1.5%	72	0	0%

So, while there was a pretty even spread across counts, Imanaga did give up a higher ratio of home runs when at 1-0 or 2-0, when challenging a hitter with a strike. But this was only 7 of the 31 home runs he gave up. The big regression seemed to come when he was even or ahead in the count, except for the first pitch, where he was better in 2025. Excluding the first pitch, he gave up 16 home runs in 2025 when even or ahead and 9 in 2024.

So new theory: perhaps he was not able to put hitters away in 2025 as well as he did in 2024, giving up more hittable pitches when he was up in the count.

The flipside to Imanaga is that his WHIP was very good, especially for a starter. So he did not give up many baserunners. Here are some of the other starters with a WHIP under 1.00, and over 100 IP – which is a very impressive list:

Name	K/9	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	ERA	FIP
Nathan Eovaldi	8.93	0.69	.192	0.85	.243	1.73	2.80
Tarik Skubal	11.10	0.83	.199	0.89	.273	2.21	2.45
Trevor Rogers	8.45	0.49	.179	0.90	.226	1.81	2.82
Jacob deGrom	9.64	1.36	.194	0.92	.230	2.97	3.64
Bryan Woo	9.55	1.25	.198	0.93	.238	2.94	3.47
Zack Wheeler	11.73	1.14	.197	0.94	.267	2.71	3.00
Hunter Greene	11.03	1.25	.191	0.94	.245	2.76	3.27
Paul Skenes	10.36	0.53	.199	0.95	.273	1.97	2.36
Spencer Schwellenbach	8.78	1.06	.215	0.97	.259	3.09	3.25
Nick Pivetta	9.41	1.09	.193	0.99	.235	2.87	3.49
Shota Imanaga	7.28	1.93	.217	0.99	.219	3.73	4.86
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	10.42	0.73	.182	0.99	.243	2.49	2.94

Imanaga was a huge outlier from this group as far as Ks/9, HR/9, BABIP, ERA and FIP. Those peripherals are discouraging, but I don’t think anyone would compare Imanaga to most of the other pitchers on this list. So, his outstanding WHIP in 2025 really does look like an outlier, and not a sustainable metric for the future.

The bottom line for Imanaga in 2025 is that he pitched fairly well, but the Cubs did not trust him to make a playoff start, and trusted the bullpen more to prevent runs against the Brewers in Game 5.

Cade Horton

Horton was a revelation in 2025, coming up when Shota Imanaga went down with an injury. His start was a touch bumpy, and then he went on an amazing run of starts that ended when he injured his rib.

His absence from the playoff roster felt like one of the deciding factors that limited their postseason run. If Horton takes Imanaga’s starts in the postseason, it might have just been enough to get them to the NLCS.

Here are Horton’s first versus second half splits:

Season	Split	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	AVG
2025	1st Half	56.2	4.45	1.41	6.83	2.86	0.89	.283
2025	2nd Half	61.1	1.03	0,78	7.92	2.20	0.56	.154

Those second half numbers are just insane. And it was very important, as the offense struggled, and Boyd and Imanaga faded down the stretch, Horton (along with the bullpen) was there to pick up the slack. I’m not sure the Cubs even make the playoffs without Horton’s great stretch, and they certainly would not have hosted a Wild Card series.

There are still concerns about Horton – especially his injury history.

• 2021 – Tommy John surgery – missed freshman college season
• 2024 – shoulder strain in May – missed the rest of the minor league season
• 2025 – rib fracture in September – missed the final weeks of the season and playoffs

The Cubs did seems to try to be careful with Horton, rarely pushing him to go too many innings or pitches, even during his great run in the second half.

Date	IP	Pitches	ER
7/20	5.2	86	0
7/26	6.1	84	0
8/1	5.0	71	0
8/6	5.2	67	0
8/13	5.2	82	1
8/18	2.2	61	1
8/23*	6.0	74	0
8/29	5.0	70	2
9/3	5.0	75	0
9/9	6.1	87	1
9/16	5.0	79	1
9/23*	3.0	29	1

*Left the game on 8/23 with a blister and the game on 9/23 with a rib injury.

Matthew Trueblood of Northside Baseball had a really good article in late July about reasons why Horton’s pitch mix is so unique. It turned out to be prescient, with Horton’s dominance from 7/20 on.

Fangraphs also had a nice breakdown on Horton in August – especially regarding the movement of his four-seam fastball.

Horton should be rookie of the year in the NL, although voters tend to favor position players, and Horton did not start the season in the majors. But he is the betting favorite over Drake Baldwin . With Matt Shaw also having a good rookie season, it will be interesting to see where they both end up in the voting. Here was a breakdown of how Cubs have done in the rookie of the year balloting over the past 50 years: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/08/27/rookie-of-the-year-how-have-the-cubs-done-historically/

In the list of positives from 2025 for the Cubs, even with the disappointment of the end-of-year injury, Cade Horton’s performance has to be near the top.

Jameson Taillon

At 2 points this season, Jameson Taillon was probably the best Cubs starter.

Early in the season he was doing a great job of limiting damage, and with the Cubs offense clicking. After a rough first start against the Diamondbacks, he had 13 starts where he allowed 3 or fewer runs in 12 of those starts, going 6 or more innings in 8 of those starts.

Things went downhill after that, as he had 2 rough outings against Milwaukee and St. Louis, giving up 13 runs over 8 innings in those 2 starts. He had one more start in June before going down with a calf strain that took him out until August. He then missed a few more starts with a mild groin strain in late August/early September. But after the return from the Calf strain, he had another great run of games, including in the postseason: 8 starts and 8 earned runs. He kept the Cubs in every game he started.

There was one pitch that Taillon improved that might explain some of this success: the “kick change”. Year over year, his use of his cutter dropped dratically, which the Changuo use went way up.

Season	Cutters	Cuttter K%	Cutter OPS vs	Changeup	Change K%	Change OPS vs
2023	562	14.8	.894	78	4.0	.720
2024	622	14.3	.603	106	3.0	.848
2025	289	8.0	.954	221	26.6	.446

Taillon has seen the strikout percentage of his 4-seam fastball drop over the past couple of years, and his slider and cutter have both become less effective. But he’s used the emergence of his Changeup to counter the effects of age on his other pitches.

Similar to Shota Imanaga, Taillon did struggle with giving up home runs. He was leading the league for a time, and ended up giving up 24, despite missing several starts. But that included 22 allowed in his first 17 starts, and only 2 in his final 8.

His similarity to Imanaga in 2025 is interesting:

Pitcher	Age	Salary	IP	ERA	WHIP	HR/9	FIP
Imanaga	32	$13.75M	144.2	3.73	0.99	1.93	4.86
Taillon	33	$17M	129.2	3.89	1.13	1.67	4.65

There were several calls from fans to trade Taillon at the deadline in 2024, but he had a very solid year in 2025 and could be a contributor in 2026. He’s not an ace, but any team could use a starting pitcher like Taillon in the middle or back end of their rotation based on how he performed in 2025.

Colin Rea

Rea was another name I was not too excited about when his signing was announced. But after a couple good bullpen appearances as a long reliever, he seemed like a decent stop-gap for the rotation when Justin Steele went down.

With the injuries to Taillon and Imanaga, and the ineffectiveness of Ben Brown, Rea became a mainstay in the rotation the entire season.

His numbers were OK. His ERA- and FIP- (adjusted for league average based on park and league factors) where 100 is average and lower is good were 96 and 101. So he was basically a league average pitcher, which is better than I would have hoped for when he was signed. And he gave the Cubs 159 innings, when I would have expected about half that as a long reliever and spot starter.

He was much better as a reliever (although sample size was small), and against right handers in 2025, so a role in the bullpen where he could be brought in against a right-hand heavy part of a lineup would seem ideal.

SP/RP	IP	ERA	WHIP	FIP	SLG	K/9	HR/9
As Starter	143.1	4.33	1.29	4.29	.423	7.47	1.26
As Reliever	16.0	0.56	0.88	2.51	.316	4.50	0.00

Handed	IP	ER	WHIP	FIP	SLG	K/9	HR/9
vs L	78.0	43	1.56	5.05	.497	7.62	1.62
vs R	81.1	27	0.95	3.22	.24	6.75	0.66

He was better in 2025 for the Cubs than he had been with the Brewers in 2023 and 2024, which is almost amazing to believe when you look at how many players have overperformed with the Brewers.

Brown and Assad

One disappointing element of the Cubs starting rotation was the injury to Javier Assad and the ineffectiveness of Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks.

Brown got the most opportunities by far, and seemed to be on the verge of losing his spot on the Major League roster time-aftertime. But someone always seemed to get injured when it looked like his time had run out. He ended up getting 15 starts, compiling a robust 6.30 ERA, although his FIP was 4.47. This was the result of a .356 BABIP against as a starter, which is extremely unlucky, as may be the reason he kept getting opportunities.

For pitchers with more than 70 innings as a starter, Brown was 11th in Hard Hit percentage, at 37.3%, and the ERAs of those pitchers was not pretty:

Name	Team	Hard%	ERA	FIP
Germán Márquez	COL	42.0%	6.70	5.47
Kyle Freeland	COL	41.4%	4.98	4.18
Tanner Gordon	COL	41.2%	6.33	5.05
Ryne Nelson	ARI	40.5%	3.16	3.91
Bryce Miller	SEA	40.0%	5.68	5.17
Brandon Pfaadt	ARI	38.8%	5.25	4.22
Mitchell Parker	WSN	38.5%	5.85	5.07
Zebby Matthews	MIN	38.4%	5.56	3.79
Cal Quantrill	2 Tms	38.1%	6.04	5.14
Antonio Senzatela	COL	37.9%	7.42	5.58
Ben Brown	CHC	37.3%	6.30	4.47

So it is not just bad luck, but Brown’s inability to prevent hard contact that appears to be his main weakness.

Javier Assad is a guy who is not pretty, but seems to be able to limit damage by squeezing out of trouble. Since 2022, he has stranded 81.1% of runners who reached base against him. In that timeframe, only one pitcher in the majors with over 300 innings pitched has a better left on base percentage: Paul Skenes at 83.7%. Another Cub started, Shota Imanaga is 5th at 80.7%.

Assad is the only pitcher in the top 21 players at LOB% with a strikeout rate under 8 Ks per 9 innings. So is this pure luck, an ability to focus when runners get on, or possibly a combination of both? I’m not sure, but the danger that he might have a year where more of those runners score is something that the front office needs to consider if he is still viewed as a potential starter.

2026 Outlook

Player	2026 Contract
Shota Imanaga	$20.5M club option for 3yr extension
Jameson Taillon	$17M in 2026 (FA in 2027)
Matthew Boyd	$14.5M in 2026 (mutual option in 2027)
Justin Steele	$6.75K in 2026 (est. arbitration)
Colin Rea	$6M Club Option
Javier Assad	$2M in 2026 (est. arbitration)
Jordan Wicks	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Cade Horton	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Ben Brown	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)

The somewhat odd Imanaga club/player option is given good detail here at Bleed Cubbie Blue: https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/chicago-cubs-analysis/199830/cubs-contracts-shota-imanaga-contract-options

With the high cost of starting pitching, I think the Cubs will choose to exercise the 3-year option, and hope they can fix whatever was broken with Imanaga in 2025, especially in regards to home runs allowed.

Colin Rea is the other big decision, and although he’s going to be 35, he seems like a bargain as a swingman at $5M.

If Imanaga and Rea are retained, and Justin Stelle is able to come back, that makes for a pretty good rotation:

• Justin Steele
• Cade Horton
• Matthew Boyd
• Shota Imanaga
• Jameson Taillon

And they would have Rea, Assad, Brown and Wicks as depth or for the bullpen. Based on how many injuries occurred in 2025, it’s safe to say that one or more of these players would get multiple starts in 2026.

The other possibility is that the Cubs go after another starter in a trade or as a free agent. Names the Dylan Cease and Tatsuya Imai have already been mentioned as possibilities.

If the Cubs acquire a starter they have several options:

• Decline the option on Imanaga – although even if the do not exercise the 3-year option, I think he might still come back on a 1-year qualifying offer.
• Trade one of Boyd or Taillon (who has a 10-team no-trade restriction). If Imanaga’s option is exercised, he would have a full no-trade clause
• Keep all the starters, and go with a 6-man rotation or move someone to the bullpen. Injury would probably take one or more of the expected starters to miss time

The Cubs have been big on depth and flexibility, and adding a top line starter would really give them both. And it would increase the probability of having more than one healthy starter who is pitching well when the playoffs come around.

And with all the uncertainty with the Cubs bullpen, having a couple extra starters who can pitch out of the pen would not be a bad thing.