Cubs Offseason Position Review: Third Base

A look back at how each position performed in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. These posts will compare the MLB rankings from 2024 with those produced in 2025, as well as individual statistics for all players who played the position in 2025.

Here are the other entries:
Catcher
First Base
Second Base
Shortstop

Positional Rankings: 2025 vs 2024

Stat	2024	2025	Change
WAR	0.0 (26th)	0.4 (27th)	+0.4 (-1)
HR	17 (t17th)	11 (t25th)	-6 (-8)
RBI	76 (t14th)	51 (t29th)	-25 (-15)
OPS	.635 (20th)	.621 (29th)	-.014 (-9)
wRC+	82 (22nd)	76 (t26th)	-6 (-4)
DRS	-4 (t20th)	7 (3rd)	+3 (+5)
OAA	-14 (28th)	-5 (t21)	-12 (-9)

Values are total and then MLB rank in parentheses
wRC+ = Weighted Runs Created Plus
DRS = Defensive Runs Saved
OAA = Outs Above Average

So far, we’ve reviewed positions where the play was solid in 2025, and players appear to be locked in for 2026. But third base is a different story. The assumption that Matt Shaw will be the Cubs starting third baseman next season is the same as it was as we headed into last season. But just like last season, if the team want to improve offensively, third base is a position that could be addressed.

Things were not great in 2024, with Christopher Morel and Isaac Parades getting the majority of the work. But after Parades was dealt to the Astros in the Kyle Tucker trade, third base was a question mark again for the Cubs, as it has been for much of their history in the last 50 years: https://cubsin7.blog/2024/12/25/i-dont-knows-on-3rd/

I also wrote about the options other than Shaw the Cubs had on hand before 2025 here, and I was not far off: https://cubsin7.blog/2025/01/08/the-matt-shaw-conundrum/

There was the fruitless pursuit of Alex Bregman, when the ownership gave Jed Hoyer some leeway to try to sign Bregman. But it was not enough leeway, and Bregman shipped up to Boston.

With Shaw struggling much of the year, and absolutely dismal numbers from anyone who played otherwise, third base was a huge problem in 2025. There was talk of going after a third baseman at the trade deadline, but Eugenio Suarez turned out to be too expensive. The Cubs did manage to acquire Willi Castro, who had been a super-utility an for the Twins. But his time in Chicago was very disappointing.

The Cubs did see a big improvement in the defense, but similar to the numbers at shortstop, the Defensive Runs Saved was much better than the Outs Above Average.

Individual Stats as a third baseman

Name	G	WAR	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+	DRS	OAA
Matt Shaw	119	1.2	11	42	.669	88	12	-1
Jon Berti	25	-0.4	0	2	.510	47	1	-2
Willi Castro	10	-0.1	0	0	.415	18	0	0
Nicky Lopez	9	-0.1	0	1	.330	19	-1	1
Justin Turner	8	0.0	0	3	.583	60	-1	0
Vidal Bruján	8	0.0	0	3	.711	96	-2	-2
Gage Workman	5	-0.2	0	0	.397	17	-2	-2

It was a tale of a different Matt Shaw every month in 2025:
-March: Was hurt early during Spring Training, so he did not have a full spring to get prepared
-April: Got off to a terrible start and was demoted
-May: Came back and had good numbers, but poor peripherals
-June: The peripherals caught up and he had another slump
-July: Started to hit the ball harder and pull the ball
-August: May have been the best Cubs hitter, as the July improvement expanded
-September/October: Finished poorly, and did very little in the postseason except walk.

Here is his month-by-month splits offensively:

Monthly	PA	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+	BABIP	HARD%	Pull%
Mar/Apr	68	1	3	.535	61	.231	12.5%	32.5%
May	43	0	4	.906	158	.438	18.8%	25.0%
Jun	89	1	6	.536	52	.231	27.3%	34.8%
Jul	72	4	12	.718	94	.200	32.2%	42.4%
Aug	82	5	10	.839	127	.255	42.9%	57.1%
Sept/Oct	83	2	9	.688	95	.292	22.0%	50.0%
Post	23	0	1	.436	50	.200	29.4%	45.5%

BABIP = Batting Average on Balls in Play
Hard% = Percentage of Balls Hit in Play that were classified as hard hit with hard speed
Pull% = Percentage of balls in play that were pulled

It’s pretty clear that the May resurgence was due to extreme batted ball luck, but that he truly started to come into his own in July and August. He was pulling the ball more and hitting it harder. And then, there was severe regression at the end of the season into the postseason.

Northside Baseball several excellent articles about Shaw:
Concerns about Shaw even after his hot May
The Evolution of his Swing in 2025
The importance of pulling the ball
His struggles at the end of the season

As up and down as Shaw’s season was, there was no question that he was a better option than all of the other players the Cubs tried at third during the course of the season.

Name	PA	WAR	HR	RBI	OPS	DRS	OAA
Matt Shaw	430	1.2	11	42	.669	12	-1
Not Matt Shaw	171	-0.8	0	9	.504	-5	-5

This is honestly just sad. It not like the Cubs did not try to get some alternatives:

• Jon Berti had played in a World Series the season before for the Yankees, so he was expected to be at least a serviceable bench piece.
• Vidal Brujan has shown flashes of good play for the Marlins, and the Cubs had soured on Matt Mervis (for good reason).
• Gage Workman was a lottery ticket with big power and supposedly a good defender.
• Nicky Lopez was…a good defender

But all of them failed miserable. Workman managed to collect a -0.2 WAR in only 5 games at 3rd, including a -2 DRS. Berti just never hit, and seemed to add more value as a end-of-blowout pitcher than a utility man.

When the Cubs acquired Castro at the deadline for Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong, it was viewed by most, including me, as a really got trade. Castro can play all over the diamond, and is a switch hitter, perfect to back of Shaw at 3rd, but also able to play all around the diamond. Unfortunately, beyond one big home run on August 9th and a big throw from right on August 19th, Castro time in Chicago was forgettable. He played in two games in the playoffs without getting an at bat.

2026 Outlook

Player	2026 Contract
Matt Shaw	$760K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)

For now, Shaw is the only guy the Cubs have for third base in 2026. The will certainly sign a utility infielder to back up him, Hoerner and Swanson. But the the big question is whether the Cubs will think bigger, and get a starting third baseman who will move Shaw to a utility role.

Here are some possibilities:

Alex Bregman – He opted out of his deal with the Red Sox and is free again. If the Cubs fail to sign Kyle Tucker, which seems inevitable, they could spend the money on a third baseman. Bregman had an up and down year with the Red Sox, and had some injuries. But, he’s only 31 and had a 3.5 WAR in 2025.

Eugenio Suarez – He also was a bit up and down with the Diamondbacks and then the Mariners, but had a 3.8 WAR in 2025. He turned 34 this season, and should be a bit cheaper than Bregman. At the very least, if the Cubs added him, they would not have to face him this season, as he has crushed the Cubs in his career, slashing .266/.349/.540.

Kazuma Okamoto – It was just announced that he will be posted by the Yomiuri Giants: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/10/kazuma-okamoto-to-be-posted-this-offseason.html. Based on the scouting reports, there is concern whether he can handle velocity. Also, he may be more suited to first as opposed to third base. Although, a right handed bat who can play third, first and the outfield could be very valuable for the Cubs.

Munetaka Murakami – another player from the Japanese League, he has huge power, but strikes out a lot. He’s also left-handed, so that could set up a platoon with Shaw.

There are some other names the Cubs could consider, but none that I would consider a serious upgrade to Shaw. But if they choose to go with Caissie and Ballesteros as a replacement for Kyle Tucker, they should have enough money to go after one of those more expensive options. Will they? We will have to wait to find out.