Cubs Offseason Position Review: First Base

A look back at how each position performed in 2025, and a look ahead to 2026. These posts will compare the MLB rankings from 2024 with those produced in 2025, as well as individual statistics for all players who played the position in 2025.

Here are other entries:
Catcher
Second Base

Positional Rankings: 2025 vs 2024

Stat	2024	2025	Change
WAR	2.1 (11th)	3.4 (t6th)	+1.3 (+5)
HR	24 (t11th)	35 (3rd)	+11 (+8)
RBI	76 (t18th)	96 (t5th)	+21 (+13)
OPS	.742 (13th)	.830 (t6th)	+.088 (+7)
wRC+	108 (15th)	130 (7th)	+22 (+8)
DRS	5 (5th)	5 (7th)	+0 (-2)

Values are total and then MLB rank in parentheses
DRS = Defensive Runs Saved

Thankfully, the Cubs are now 2 years removed from starting Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini at first base, which actually occurred in 2023 despite all of our collective efforts to black that out from our memories. But, before the 2024 season, the Cubs took a chance on a slightly older prospect from the Dodgers, giving up a couple very good young prospects to get him.

I’m getting a little tired of the hand-wringing about how great one of those prospects, Zyhir Hope, is going to be, as he looks like a future star. But the Dodgers have one of the best scouting departments out there, and some credit have to be giving to the Cubs draft team for finding such a valuable asset in the 11th round of the draft. The truth is, the Cubs are not getting Michael Busch for Jackson Ferris and Matt Mervis.

And Hope was barely mentioned when the trade took place: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39287711/sources-cubs-acquire-michael-busch-4-player-trade-dodgers?ex_cid=espnapi_affiliate_abcotv

But Busch has already delivered beyond expectations in the major leagues. So while the price tag was high, there’s no guarantee the prospects sent to the Dodgers will ever produce as well or at all. For the Dodgers, with Freddie Freeman locked in at first base, it was worth the risk. And for the Cubs, who really needed a power bat at a corner infield position, it has been a great acquisition.

Busch had a really good year in 2024, pushing the Cubs to a top-half offensive performance at first base. But he raised his game in 2025, pushing the numbers to top 7 at the position for WAR, home runs, RBIs, OPS and wRC+.

Individual Stats as a first baseman

Name	G	WAR	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+	DRS
Michael Busch	141	3.7	34	87	.881	144	2
Justin Turner	32	-0.2	1	6	.565	56	2
Carlos Santana	4	-0.1	0	2	.273	-35	1
Moisés Ballesteros	1	0.0	0	1	2.000	492	0

The biggest question about Busch coming into the season was how he would do against left-handed pitching. So I was very excited when they picked up Justin Turner to be a backup first baseman/designated hitter who could play at third in a pinch.

But looking back at Busch’s number is 2024, his splits were not as bad as I thought:

2024	PA	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+
vLHP	100	1	8	.712	102
vRHP	467	20	57	.788	121

Certainly, the power numbers were much lower against lefties, but the OPS was surprisingly high. But, the Cubs made 2025 almost a true platoon at first. Here is a comparison of the numbers of Busch vs Turner in 2025 against left-handed pitching.

Name	Team	PA	HR	RBI	OBP	wRC+
Justin Turner vs LHP	CHC	109	3	11	.759	112
Michael Busch vs LHP	CHC	95	4	8	.649	81

So, playing Turner at first over Busch against lefties was definitely advantageous, but it just didn’t feel that way. And Turner was a disaster against right hand pitching:

Name	Team	PA	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+
Michael Busch vs RHP	CHC	497	30	82	.910	151
Justin Turner vs RHP	CHC	82	0	7	.387	16

As we move toward 2026, a big question will be whether Busch will get more regular playing time against lefties. I feel like he started to do better as the season progressed, but let’s take a look at the month-by-month splits vs left-handed pitchers:

Month	PA	H	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+
Mar/Apr	15	3	0	0	.641	88
May	12	0	0	0	.167	-32
Jun	16	1	0	2	.192	-45
Jul	30	9	2	2	.885	146
Aug	12	2	0	1	.533	67
Sept/Oct	10	3	2	3	1.200	227
Post	11	4	1	1	1.000	N/A

It’s a small sample size, but after being very poor in May and June, he was much better the rest of the season, including getting 5 home runs, when you include his post-season homer off of Robert Gasser in Game 4 of the NLDS.

Late season pickup, Carlos Santana did almost nothing, with a miniscule .273 OPS in 4 games at first. And Moises Ballesteros had one game at first base.

From a defensive perspective, Busch only had 2 defensive runs saved in 2025 versus 5 in 2024. His Outs above average went from 2 to -1. Comparatively, the best defensive first baseman in MLB, Matt Olson, had 17 DRS, and 9 outs above average. Busch split his time in college between first and the outfield, but played mostly 2nd and 3rd, and a bit in left field in the Dodgers minor leagues. So, hopefully, we will see some improvement of his defense as he sticks at 1st base for the Cubs.

2026 Outlook

Player	2026 Contract
Michael Busch	$741K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)
Justin Turner	$10M in 2026 with $2M buyout
Moises Ballesteros	$820K in 2026 (pre-arbitration)

Justin Turner will most certainly not be brought back at $10M for 2026. There’s a small chance that he could negotiate a smaller, 1-year salary that is higher than the buyout, but I would expect him to take the buyout and either move on or retire.

I would expect the Cubs will try to make Busch the everyday first baseman, with occasional days off at DH. If they do want a right handed counterpart for those days off, they would either need to bring back Turner, sign a free agent, or make a trade.

The other interesting question surrounding Busch is whether they will keep him in the leadoff spot against right handed hitters. The reasoning is pretty plain: he’s their best hitter against righties, and there best hitter at getting on base (assuming Kyle Tucker is not with the team).

Here is how he performed based on position in the batting order (minimum 45 plate appearances)

Batting Order	PA	HR	RBI	OPS	wRC+
Batting 1st	222	16	32	.864	135
Batting 4th	169	6	21	.843	139
Batting 5th	48	2	9	.899	152
Batting 6th	91	8	21	1.030	184

Another reason to have Busch in the leadoff spot is that no other Cubs did well there. Overall the Cubs OPS from the leadoff position was .765 and wRC+ was 114. So if you remove Busch from those numbers, it is really bad.

Unless the Cubs get another player who they feel really great in the leadoff spot against right-handed pitching, which I doubt, Busch will be there again in 2026.

Against left-handed pitchers, I expect to see much more of Busch playing, but I could see the Cubs getting a right-handed utility player who can back up Busch and give him the occasional day off. Moises Ballesteros will probably get most of his at bats at DH, but he may get a few games at first, as well.

Jonathan Long, who will be 24 next year, had a breakout season in AAA with an .883 OPS. He was a reverse splits guy last year, with an OPS of .791 versus lefties and .914 against righties. But he still might be an option next season.

Overall, similar to the catcher position, the Cubs should in good shape at first base, at a pretty reasonable salary.