A bi-weekly assessment (updated to weekly for the final month) of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational.
The game against the Washington Nationals was a gut punch on multiple levels. After the offense failed to show up on Saturday, a win really felt necessary at home against such a poor opponent, despite Tucker and PCA being out of the lineup. After the 2nd solo home run by Carson Kelly, the Cubs appeared to be in good shape. But a Palencia meltdown/injury resulted in a series defeat, and created uncertainty around the closer role as the season comes to an end.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
–Brad Keller – I’ve thought for about a month that Keller should be the Cubs’ closer, but the circumstance around him being pushed in the role was obviously not ideal. He’s been amazingly good, not allowing a run since July 12th. If he can keep up the current pace, he’s bee a great, lock-down closer. Unfortunately, the Palencia injury decreases the number of reliable arms. But the returns of Taillon and Soroka, could help.
–Caleb Thielbar – Could he be a two-headed closer with Keller? Probably not, but I think he will be used in the highest-leverage inning against lefties in any close game the rest of the season.
Wisps of gray hair (high confidence):
No one
Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Andrew Kittredge – I’m really hoping Kittredge can fill in for Keller as the 8th inning guy. He’s had about 4 good outings in a row, which is encouraging.
–Drew Pomeranz – Was very good as an opener. He Seems to have more of Counsell’s trust than Rogers.
–Porter Hodge – He’s moving up quickly, and could take a much bigger role with the injury to Palencia. In his last three outings he’s gone a total of 3 innings, 0 hits, 1 walk (which was intentional), 4 strikeouts and no earned runs. His fastball was around 86, but he did hit 100 in his last outing.
–Taylor Rogers – After giving up a run in 3 straight outings, Rogers finally had a shutout inning, despite giving up a hit. He’s a loogy in the world of 3-hitter minimums. I think his role should be to finish an inning against a tough lefty guy, where there is not much chance the opponent will pinch hit, or that Taylor will have to face any decent right-handed hitters..
–Aaron Civale – He had a week off between outings, and surrendered a homer last night to Matt Olson. I’m not sure how the Cubs intend to use him down the stretch.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Ben Brown – He have up 2 more earned runs in Cade Horton’s last start, both while Caleb Thielbar was on the mound. I would have predicted he’d be sent down when Taillon returns, but the Palencia injury may keep him in the majors.
No hair left (no confidence)
–Ethan Roberts – He is back after the Palencia injury, but would be shocked to see him put into a game for anything but mop-up duty. His ERA at Iowa is a very nice 2.22, but he has a 1.32 WHIP and 4.19 Runs allowed per 9 innings.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Daniel Palencia – He finally had a great outing on the 6th, facing 3 hitters, getting them all out with 2 Ks. And then the next day, everything blew up. I see Palencia as the future closer of this team, but for this season, Keller might be a better option. But taking his 100-mph fastball and good slider out of the bullpen right now hurts the team. Hopefully he is back before the season is over.
–Jordan Wicks – AAA
–Ryan Brasier – IL – Rehabbing in Iowa, there is a possibility we see him again, but it’s not definite. He has not looked good in 2 appearances in Iowa, with 1 IP, 2H 3 ER, 3 BB, 1K.
–Luke Little – AAA – Little might be a AAAA pitcher, able to overpower minor league hitters with his stuff, but not quite good enough for it to play in the majors. I think he’s run out of chances in 2025, but will have another opportunity next season.
–Gavin Hollowell – AAA
–Tyson Miller – AAA
–Eli Morgan – IL – also rehabbing in Iowa. He’s pitched in 4 games at Iowa with 4.2 IP, 5 H, 1 BB, 8K and 1 earned run allowed. Maybe he gets another chance in Chicago.
Released/DFA’d
Cubs in 7 
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