Are the Cubs playing it safe?

To paraphrase a quote from Ronny Cammareri in the movie, Moonstruck (played by Nicolas Cage), “Playing it safe is just about the most dangerous thing…you could do.”

The Cubs are in a great position to make the playoffs, with a 9-game lead over the Giants for the final playoff spot and a 4-game lead over the Padres for the top Wild Card spot – which would provide home field in the Wild Card round. And having a chance at the division title would require a Brewers-esque win streak, as they sit 6 games behind with only 22 left to play.

So, if the Cubs have decided to manage their roster in a way that would best prepare them for the playoffs as a Wild Card, that would be understandable. They still need to win games, so we have not seen any drastic maneuvers, but there could be some subtle elements around how hitters have been rested, who has gone to the IL, and how the pitchers have been managed.

Several things have me suspecting that this might be the case:

1. Michael Soroka – while his shoulder showed no structural damage, the Cubs chose to put him on the IL, and shut him down for a few weeks. He had shown a velovity dip withe the Nationals in his last few starts, so maybe it was a fatigue issue, and he just needed a break. He is ramping up right now, so his only contribution might be the final week or so of the season and potentially the playoffs.
2. Jameson Taillon – Taillon felt a twinge in his calf, and the Cubs decided an immediate IL stint was necessary. According to Patrick Mooney, the move was partially made to make sure Taillon would be available for the Playoffs.
3. Cade Horton is having his innings and number pitches limited in order to keep him available for the playoffs. His max innings this year was 7, and he’s only gone 6 or more 3 other times in 20 starts. His highes number of pitches was 94, and he’s gone over 90 only 4 times. The Cubs have been even more conservative recently, with the pitch counts in his last 6 starts at 71, 67, 82, 61, 74, 70 and 75, despite him giving up only 4 runs across those 6 starts. That did included a 61-pitch, 2.2 inning start against the Brewers, when he left the game with a blister.
4. Kyle Tucker was given an extra day off after he felt some calf tightness. This was combined with an off-day for PCA, leaving a fairly weak lineup in a game where the Cubs had the chance to get a sweep. They had a chance to use Tucker as a pinch hitter late in the game, but instead, Carlos Santana took a called third strike to end the game with the tying run on deck.
5. Pete Crow-Armstrong was given 2-days off against the Braves, with Kevin Alcantara being brought up for the express reason of giving PCA a day off against lefties. Sahadev Sharma had a good article on the reasons why. PCA has certainly been struggling, but his defense is almost un-benchable for team trying to win every game. They have the option of sticking him at the number 9-spot in the batting order. But they’ve chosen to give him a small break.

There are probably other examples of the Cubs playing it safe, including try to avoid any over-use of some of the bullpen guys. But it really does seem like the Cubs are making decisions to help them in the playoffs instead of just trying to get there.

The dangerous thing is that if the Cubs get on a hot streak and the Brewers struggle down the stretch, it could be the difference of just one game where the Cubs benched some starters or pulled a pitcher early that keeps the Cubs in the Wild Card instead of winning the division, which would basically be the value of winning the Wild Card series.

I understand the strategy, and I think I mostly support it. But that viewpoint is not shared by many of the Cubs fans on Twitter, and if the Cubs miss out on the NL Central by 1 or 2 games, it could become a big talking point. Especially if they are unable to get out of the Wild Card round.