The unsung, underappreciated and undervalued Nico Hoerner

This week, a friend of mine, who is a fellow Cubs fan, asked me who currently was second in WAR on the Cubs for 2025. Being a person who constantly checks Baseball Reference, I knew that it was Nico Hoerner, but I’m not sure many other Cub fans would have had the right answer.

PCA is first by a wide margin, at 6.3. But Kyle Tucker, who at one point seems on pace for an 8 WAR season, has dipped to 4.4 during his slump. Between them, is Nico, at 4.8. Here is the full top 12:

• Pete Crow-Armstorng 6.3
• Nico Hoerner 4.8
• Kyle Tucker 4.4
• Dansby Swanson 3.6
• Michael Busch 3.3
• Carson Kelly 3.3
• Matthew Boyd 3.0
• Matt Shaw 2.7
• Ian Happ 2.1
• Seiya Suzuki 1.9
• Shota Imanaga 2.0
• Caleb Thielbar 1.2

WAR is an imperfect stat, and based on these results, arguments could be had around how it deals with pitchers, and might possibly overvalue defense. And Nico Hoerner’s WAR certainly has a big defensive component. But perhaps we are undervaluing defense when we measure a player, instead of WAR overvaluing it.

Fangraphs uses a different WAR calculation, and Nico is much lower on that site, sitting at 3.3, which is fourth behind PCA, Tucker and Boyd. But for the sake of this argument, I’ll use Baseball Reference, and assume Nico has the 2nd highest WAR on the team.

Sometime I feel like Nico is someone who fits better in a previous baseball era. He hits for a good average and plays good defense, but doesn’t take a lot of walks and does not slug very much. I’m trying to think of some current players to compare him with, and can’t really come up with any off the top of my head. Looking at the statistics, Xavier Edwards of the Marlins has the same slugging percentage, and a slightly better average and OBP. Bryson Stott is somewhat similar with a lower average and OBP, but a slightly higher slug.

One area we’ve heard about a lot this season is Nico Hoerner’s average with runners in scoring position. The Cubs have a .249 team batting average and a .265 RISP (+.016). The major league averages are .252 and .253 (only a +.001). Nico is a .289 overall and .380 with RISP (+.091), which is absurd. But is this just a strange aberration in 2025, or a trend is his career:

Year	Average	AVG with RISP	Difference
2025	.289	.380	+.091
2024	.273	.246	-.027
2023	.283	.302	+.019
2022	.281	.283	+.001
2021	.302	.387	+.085
2020	.222	.355	+.133
2019	.282	.450	+.168
Career	.280	.316	+.036

AS you can see, he has generally been much better with runners in scoring position during his career, hitting 36 points higher in those situations. It would be interesting to do a deeper dive on these numbers to see what other players have had a similar bump in their average when hitting with runners in scoring position, but for Nico, it seems like more of a rule instead of an exception.

Moving on from his clutch hitting, the place Nico really shines is in the defensive metrics at second base. He is at 17 defensive runs saved , with Bryce Turang in second at 10. That 70% gap is larger than any other position except left field, where Steven Kwan also has a 17-10 lead over Tommy Pham. Ke’Bryan Hayes has a 40% gap over the second place third basemen – who happens to be Matt Shaw. PCA is still tops in defensive runs saved, but only has a 20-16 lead over Ceddanne Refaela among centerfielders.

Lets take a look at his defensive runs saved over his career

Year	Defensive Runs Saved
2025 (mostly 2B + SS)	17
2024 (mostly 2B + SS)	3
2023 (mostly 2B + SS)	14
2022 (SS)	10
2021 (2B, 3B, SS, LF, RF)	2
2020 (2B, 3B, SS)	6
2019 (2B + SS)	1
Career	53

The gradual improvement is obvious, with the exception of 2024, where he was dealing with a hand injury much of the season. Returning to health this year has allowed him to become arguably the best defensive second baseman in baseball.

With only one season left on his contract after this year, the Cubs will have to make some tough choices on whether they can retain Hoerner, as he will be one of several players hitting their free agent year after 2026. Names like Taillon, Happ and Suzuki see their contracts end, and Carson Kelly has a mutual option that will almost certainly not be picked up by one of the sides.

But I’d love to see the Cubs keep Hoerner, for his defense at 2nd – and short, his speed (which I failed to mention earlier), and his clutch hitting. He’ll never be a home run hitter or a guy who gets on base 40% of the time, but he does so many other things well that help the team win games.