It’s a Playoff Race and Everyone is Invited

Well, almost everyone. But it is a bit crazy how many teams are still in the playoff hunt.

In 2025, there were 9 teams that were more than 5 games out of the third Wild Card spot, with six of those teams being in the NL. Amazingly, two teams that were on the cusp of that range actually made the playoffs. The Guardians were 4.5 games behind the Mariners for the last Wild Card and 12 (yes, that’s right, 12) behind the Tigers for the NL Central, and they came back to win their division. The Reds we 2.5 games behind the Padres and 5 behind the Mets, and jumped over New York for the last spot.

But in 2026, there are even fewer teams out of the race. Only 7 teams are more than 5 games out of the Wild Card, making for very few sellers as we get close to the trade deadline this season. This directly impacts the Cubs, as everyone in the world knows they need pitching – but the competition for relief help through a trade could be harsh.

But we could still see some shifting in the next two weeks that might shake things up. One strong week from a team could move them up the standing, and one bad week could prove disastrous.

Here are some of the big stories from the current standing at the All-Star Break:

• The Boston Red Sox had the worst record in the AL on June 24th. Since then, they’ve gone 14-2, to climb within half of a game of the 3rd Wild Card spot. Any thoughts of Aroldis Chapman or Sonny Gray being available may have gone out the window. Another good sign for the Red Sox is that they are 4 in the AL with a +27 run differential.
  
• On May 31st, the Detroit Tigers were 14 games under .500 and 6.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. They are now only 3.5 games out of that spot, and 6.5 out of first in the AL Central. They also have a +24 run differential, which would translate to 7 more wins they would be expected to have, which would put them in a tie with the White Sox for the division lead. Do they think about trading Tarik Skubal or another expiring contract player now?
  
• The Minnesota Twins, who seemingly traded everyone at the deadline last season, are 703 in their last 10 games, and tied for the last Wild Card spot, 1 game under .500. They have a big series with the Cubs right after the All-Star break, where we’ll see if they can keep it up. The Cubs have coveted Joe Ryan for a couple of years, but he might be off limits.
  
• The Tampa Bay Rays have a 3-game lead over the Yankees in the NL East, but only a _32 run differential – as compared to +91 for New York. Going by expected win/loss, they should be trailing the Yankees by 7 games.
  
• Toronto is last in the AL East, but only 2.5 back in the Wild Card. Getting Dylan Cease was supposed to ensure another playoff run, but they are currently fighting for their playoff lives.
  
• The AL West is continues to be the weakest division, with a .461 winning percentage, and a division leader only 2 games over .500.
  
• Despite a slide from Cincinnati, the NL Central continues to be the strongest division, with a .534 winning percentage.
  
• The Marlins are 8 games over .500, are currenlty in the 3rd spot in the Wild Card. Their +24 run differential is evidence that this is not a mirage.
  
• Atlanta, who were the hottest team at the start of the season, have really slowed down, and now sit in the 3rd spot in the NL, meaning they would have to play in the Wild Card Round. And their division lead, which was once at 10.5 games on May 22nd, is down to 2 games over the Phillies and 4 over the Marlins.
  
• Speaking of the Phillies, they had a horrible 10-19 start, and fired their manager, but have gone 44-24 since.
  
• The Mets, who also had a horrible start, did not fire their manager until a few weeks ago, and are mired in last, with the 2nd worst record in the NL, just 1.5 games above the Rockies.
  
• The Dodgers have the best record in baseball. Shocking.

Here is a list of all the teams, and how much they have overperfromed or underperfromed based on their ZIP projections:

Team	Projected Win %	Actual Win %	Difference
Tampa Bay Rays	0.457	0.596	0.139
Washington Nationals	0.389	0.495	0.106
Milwaukee Brewers	0.525	0.615	0.090
Chicago White Sox	0.444	0.526	0.082
Miami Marlins	0.469	0.536	0.067
Atlanta Braves	0.519	0.579	0.060
St. Louis Cardinals	0.469	0.526	0.057
Cleveland Guardians	0.481	0.526	0.045
Los Angeles Dodgers	0.599	0.629	0.030
Colorado Rockies	0.370	0.398	0.028
Pittsburgh Pirates	0.488	0.515	0.027
Chicago Cubs	0.537	0.563	0.026
Minnesota Twins	0.475	0.495	0.020
New York Yankees	0.543	0.563	0.020
Texas Rangers	0.500	0.510	0.010
Arizona Diamondbacks	0.506	0.510	0.004
Philadelphia Phillies	0.562	0.557	-0.005
San Diego Padres	0.512	0.500	-0.012
Cincinnati Reds	0.469	0.453	-0.016
Los Angeles Angels	0.414	0.392	-0.022
Athletics	0.457	0.427	-0.030
Houston Astros	0.519	0.480	-0.039
Seattle Mariners	0.543	0.495	-0.048
Boston Red Sox	0.556	0.489	-0.067
Baltimore Orioles	0.543	0.474	-0.069
Detroit Tigers	0.531	0.458	-0.073
Toronto Blue Jays	0.549	0.469	-0.080
San Francisco Giants	0.519	0.427	-0.092
Kansas City Royals	0.506	0.392	-0.114
New York Mets	0.549	0.412	-0.137

Not shocking to see Tampa and Milwaukee on the top of the list, and the Royals and Mets at the bottom.