Who won the trade?

Introduction – The Tucker trade

An age old question that more serious fans like to argue is who won a particular trade. For the casual fan, win and losses – and possibly the overall payroll – are typically the only barometers of a team’s success. But for those of us who are interested in how the front office has performed, the ability to get a positive net value in trades is important.

That is what made the Cam Smith promotion to the majors of such interest to Cubs fans. Giving up that kind of talent for one year of a superstar can bring a lot of scrutiny. And with Jed Hoyer in a contact year, it adds to the interest.

Actually evaluating a trade for who won may not be so simple. You can certainly consider WAR generated by the players for their new teams. But there can be several complicating factors:
-How many years of control do the players have left?
-Did the players sign extensions with the new teams, and product value in the new contract?
-Were the players traded again while still under control? And was it a multi-player deal?
-Did the players traded for help contribute to making the playoffs, winning playoff series, or even winning a World Series, which greatly increases the value of the trade.

What I will hope to do is look back at some past Cubs trades, and analyze them from a pure WAR with current contract value, and then provide some intangibles, such as the examples listed above that should also factor in. Let start with the Cam Smith trade.

Trade:
Cubs trade: Issac Parades, Cam Smith, Hayden Wesneski
Astros Trade: Kyle Tucker
WAR Score: Cubs 1.4 Astros 0.0
Intangibles: Tucker is in his Free Agent year, while Parades, Smith and Wesneski have many years of control left with the Astros
Verdict: Waaaaaay too early to tell. If the Cubs re-sign Tucker while under their control and/or get to the playoffs this year, that would factor in their favor. Otherwise, it projects to a clear win for the Astros at this point, assuming the players they acquired perfrom anywhere near expectations.

Looking a bit deeper for the Cubs on this, they could also factor in the Parades trade the previous year:
Cubs trade: Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge, Ty Johnson
Astros Trade: Isaac Parades
WAR Score (2024): Cubs 0.4 Rays -0.3
WAR Score (2025): Rays 0.3 Cubs ?
Intangibles: Cubs were able to flip Parades for Tucker, but with two more additions. So it will be difficult to evaluate the long-term impact of this trade. Morel, Bigge and Johnson all have years of control, so this trade also is a TBD until the end of this season and the future.

If you want to evaluate everything the Cubs lost for Tucker, you should not include Parades future performance in that evaluation, as they would not have been able to have both the players they traded for him, and him. And this could also include Cody Bellinger in 2025, who was given away for nothing.
Cubs Gain: Parades (2024), Tucker (2025)
Cubs Lose: Morel (2024-?), Bigge (2024-?), Johnson (2024-?), Smith, Wesneski (2025-), Bellinger (2025)
Current WAR Score: Cubs gain 1.8 Cubs lose 0.0
Intangibles: Lots of years ahead for the players the Cubs traded away.

Coming Next: a look at the rebuilding trades from the Epstein/Hoyer era.