The Matt Shaw Conundrum

The Cubs are all-in on Matt Shaw. The trade of Cam Smith and Isaac Parades was proof positive that Shaw is the future at either 3rd or 2nd base for the Cubs for the long term. But heading into a 2025 season, where the playoffs appear to be mandatory for the future of this front office, counting on Shaw to be the immediate solution at third base is a risk.

To complicate things, Nico Hoerner had surgery on the flexor tendon in his right forearm when the season concluded, and speculation is that he might be ready when the season starts. But there is a real possibility that he will not be ready, which would mean the Cubs would need to fill holes at both 2nd and 3rd as the season begins.

There are several options at these positions for the Cubs, but the questions will be how good these options are. Shaw has 693 plate appearances in just over a year of minor league baseball, with only 152 being at AAA. Certainly, some players, especially older pleyers coming from college, have had success after such limited professional experience. However, that is the exception.

There’s Miles Mastrobuoni, who has show great glove work and flashes of offensive production. But an OPS+ of 35 in 2024 with a -0.2 WAR does not generate much confidence that he can hold down a bench spot, let alone be a starter – even for a limited amount of time. He does have minor league options, so he could start in Iowa this season.

One of the newest Cubs, Vidal Brujan is another option, but his OPS+ over the past 3 years was 42, 24 and 70. For a middle infielder, being below league average in OPS is probably expected, but not that much below. Like Mastrobuoni, he appears to be a possible utility player, but the offense would really suffer if he needed to play every day. And Brujan is out of minor league options, so he would need to be on the major league rosters or be exposed to waivers.

The Cubs made a surprising move in the Rule 5 draft, which provided more of a longshot, $50k option for “Shaw Insurance”. They drafted Gage Workman from Detroit, where he had an .843 OPS is Double-A Erie last season. He played both third and shortstop, and showed decent power. But also struck out a lot. I would think it would be a very big stretch to believe he would be a viable option to play lots of third base in 2025. And while he would appear to be a good prospect that the Cubs would love to station in Iowa for a year, because he came from the Rule 5 draft, he would need to be on the active roster the whole season, or be offered back to the Tigers at a prorated portion of the cost to draft him (as it cost $100k to draft him, but he must be offered back for $50k). He could offer some power and flexibility off the bench, but it could stunt his career trajectory to not be able to get regular at bats when he is 25-years-old.

There are a few other options for the Cubs: James Triantos, who was mentioned in a possible Jesus Luzardo trade, is almost 22, but has show good numbers os far in the minors. Luis Vasquez is 25, can play thrid, second or short, and hit farily well at Iowa last year. Ben Cowles, who was included in the Mark Leiter trade last season, had good numbers in double-A before suffering a broken wrist. But all would seem to be long shots to make a mojr impact this season.

The speculation among Cubs’ beat writers and bloggers is that another infield option would be good. Yoan Moncada’s name has been mentioned, but he might be too expensive. And if he is just an insurance policy for Matt Shaw, what would happen if Shaw is the answer. Bt I suppose that would be a good problem. And while it would seem that getting a left-handed hitting infielder would be a good fit (Brujan, Mastrobuoni and Workman are left-hand hitters), the Cubs could still use a right-hand hitting first baseban to back up Michael Busch. But that may be a discussion for a different post.

One key to 2025, as I see it, is that the Cubs need to have options around their roster in case of injury or poor performance. If they don’t account for this, it could be another slog to 83 (or fewer) wins this season, which could mean the end of the Hoyer era.