It’s obviously early in the season, but three of the teams that were projected to be Division winners by almost all the projection systems are currently in last place.
The Cubs are last in the NL Central at 6-6, the Tigers are last in the AL Central at 4-9 and the Mariners are last in the NL West, also at 4-9. But if we take a look at early season run differentials, which are typically good predicters of future performance, these three teams may not have to be as worried as it would initially seem.
The Cubs are +12 in run differential, which would translate to a 7-5 expected record, the Tigers are -3, which would translate to a 6-7 expected record, while the Mariners have a -2 differential, also translating to 6-7. So, while the early season had been a disappointment, none of those teams are as bad as their records would suggest.
A few other teams might have more reason to be worried.
| Team | Record | Run Differential |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 5-7 | -14 |
| Toronto | 5-7 | -22 |
| Boston | 4-8 | -11 |
| Kansas City | 5-8 | -14 |
| Philadelphia | 6-6 | -15 |
| San Francisco | 5-8 | -16 |
The Yankees, Brewers and Dodgers are off to great starts with differentials of +25, +24, and +34 respectively, with the Braves a bit of a surprise, also coming in with a +34.
The biggest surprise so far are probably the Colorado Rockies, who are 6-6 and have a +6 run differential, and the Minnesota Twins who are 7-5 and +5.
The White Sox, meanwhile, unsurprisingly have the worst run differential in the majors at -27.
Cubs in 7 
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