Well, no, not really. There’s no way to sugarcoat it…losing Cade Horton for the year is a huge blow. It has turned the Cubs from consensus favorites in the Central, even with the slow start, to slight underdogs behind the Brewers with most online betting sites. But there is a lots of time left in this season, and no reason for Cubs fans to give up.
And while Javier Assad won’t save the season, he is a solid starter, who should be able to provide the Cubs with quality starts in 2026. The fact that the Cubs have already lost 2 starters to injury, and have a third on a long rehab, but still have a decent rotation is a testament to how much depth the front office has been able to build. Certainly, we’d much rather see Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd and Justin Steele listed in our probable pitchers this week. But the fact that Colin Rea and Assad don’t make us panic when we see their names instead is something to feel good about. Now if another starter goes down, and we see Ben Brown getting a start, I think some panic might set in. And there still are major concerns with Jameson Taillon, and his drop in velocity this season.
But back to Assad, he had a wonderful outing yesterday against the Rays, going 5.2 innings, with 0 runs, 1 hit and 2 walks, striking out 3. This was a bit surprising, as it comes on the heels of his last minor league start, where he gave up 8 runs, 11 hits and 3 walks in only 4 innings against Louisville.
I did a fairly long deep-dive on Assad in a previous post when I compared him to Ben Brown.
In my research for that post, it was clear that Assad has been a pitcher whose results are much better than his peripherals. He has a very nice career ERA at 3.37, with a 19-12 career record. And his HR/9 is 1.1, which is solid.
But some of the other numbers just don’t fit with a pitcher who has been successful or will be successful in the major leagues. He has a 1.31 WHIP, a 4.44 FIP and on 7.3 strikeouts per 9 innings. He is 148th out of 155 active pitchers with more than 300 inning in his K/BB ratio at 1.99.
But his super-power appears to be his strand rate (LOB%). As I posted in the linked article, among active pitchers with more than 300 innings pitched, Assad is third in LOB%, which is astounding for a pitcher who does not strike people out. He also has great BABIP against numbers. This came into play yesterday in the 5th inning, when he was able to escape the 5th after the first two hitters got on base. He escaped the inning with a strikeout and a slick double play where Bregman stepped on third to get a force out, and then fired over to first.
From an analytics perspective, these numbers do not seem sustainable. And it is probably a big reason why Assad, despite being in his 5th season in the majors, did not break camp with the team and was seen as the 8th potential starters this season. But he’s back, and will have ample opportunity to prove that despite his weak peripherals, he can be a quality starting pitcher in the major leagues.
Horton is out, and there’s nothing that can change that fact. But hopefully the Cubs can turn things around quickly, and move back up in the standings. I know it is early, but seeing them in last place in the Central is a really bad look.
Cubs in 7 
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