A bi-weekly assessment of how confident I’m feeling when the Cubs call on each member of their bullpen. These assessments are often not completely rational.
I initially intended to wait until the first two weeks had passed to put up my initial rankings, but today’s poot performance in the second game of the double-header demanded action. Also, with the undetermined injury to Cade Horton, and Colin Rea most likely headed to the rotation, a new arm has arrived.
The bullpen for the Cubs over to past two seasons have been works in progress, with the 8-man group who pitched in June looking very different from the one that came out of Spring Training. And the 8 who ended the season looking even different. One of the strength of the front office and manager has been to identify the players who are not working out, and making acquisitions and adjustments to find pitchers who can get outs.
I was a bit surprised by how aggressive the team was in adding relievers on major league deals (Harvey, Maton, MiIner and Webb, plus re-signing Thielbar), but we are seeing why right now. Still, I really miss having Brad Keller and Andrew Kittredge out in the pen. With a team that is expected to complete, and has gotten out of the gate slowly, I’d expect the front office to be aggressive again this season in finding bullpen pieces who will be an upgrade over whet we are seeing.
Red means a player has dropped
Green a player has moved up
Blue a player stayed the same
Orange the player is new
No gray hair (extremely high confidence):
A couple of players are close, but no one at the moment
Specks of gray hair (high confidence):
–Daniel Palencia– He is almost to the high confidence level, especially with his performance in the WBC. He managed a 1-2-3 inning in a 1-run game yesterday, and had a strikeout, aking it a very low-stress inning. After losing the closer role to Keller in last year’s playoffs, I was a bit surprised when Counsell named him the closer so early in spring. But he has backed up that confidence so far.
–Caleb Thielbar– Thielbar is in this grouping only because of his slightly rough spring. He seems to have shaken that off, and teamed with Cabrera and Palencia on the shutout. I am still worried about regression from last season, especially as he is not young, but he had a good first week.
Some gray hair (medium confidence):
–Colin Rea– This may be the last time Rea is in this list for a while, as he appears to be headed to the rotation to replace Cade Horton. Losing Horton in the rotation is bad enough, but also losing what Rea can provide in the bullpen is a big blow. He’s already pitched 6 innings over 2 games, and it will hurt to lose his long relief. Especially as Ben Brown is the only other long relief option at the moment.
–Phil Maton– It is a slight mystery as to why Counsell went with Jacob Webb in the 8th inning yesterday instead of Jacob Webb. My bet is that he wanted to hold Maton until for the 9th, as Palencia was not going to pitch in two games of the double-header. But holding a pitcher back is always a risk, and it came back to bite the Cubs. MAton hasn’t exactly been steller in his first 3 games, with a 7.71 ERA so far.
–Hoby Milner– Milner has been very busy so far, appearing in 5 of the 7 games for the Cubs. He gave up a costly home run in a loss to Washington, and 2 hits against Cleveland (allowing an inherited runner to score). But overall h’s looked OK.
–Hunter Harvey– From a cost per season, Harvey is the most expensive man in the bullpen. He has a big arm, and much of the concern around him was his health. His first two appearances went well, but he allowed a walsk and two home runs against Cleveland in his latest appearance. I almost put him in the lots of gray hair section, but I realized that was recency bias, so I moved him up a section.
Lots of gray hair (low confidence)
–Ben Brown– Oh Ben, when you’re good, you’re very good. But when you’re bad…well, you know the rest. Like Harvey, the stuff is there, but the result are not. He was excellent against the Angels, with 3.1 innings, 0 runs, 1 hit, 1 walk and 0 of 2 inherited runners scoring. But his other 2 appearances, he’s allowed 4 runs in 5.1 innings, 5 hits, 3 walks, and both inherited runners scored. With Rea probably moving the the rotation, he’s the only long reliever in the bullpen at the moment. So expect to see more of him, like it or not.
–Ethan Roberts – Brought up for the double-header, I keep reading how Roberts has get movement on his pitches. But when he had the chance to keep things to a 1-run game, he gave up a big hit, which turned out to be the run the Guardians needed. Still, I think I like him more than Jacob Webb. He’ll head back to Iowa for now.
–Jacob Webb– I’m not sure what the Cubs saw in Webb, but he’s looked list a bust in the early returns. He has no minor league options, so they’d probably lose him if they tried. His ERA is 7.36, which is not as bad as his 11.93 FIP. I was surprised that Counsell used him in the 8th inning of yesterday’s game when the Cubs had the lead, but the lead did not last long. Names like Eli Morgan, Nate Pearson and Julian Merryweather were early season bullpen casualties last season, and Webb is headed toward their fate.
–Riley Martin– A great story, Martin is finally getting his major league opportunity at 28-years-old. It will be nice to have a third lefty in the pen, especially with Thielbar looking like the primary set-up man. But we’ll see how long he lasts.
No hair left (no confidence)
No one yet, but Brown and Webb are heading in this direction.
Not Applicable (minors or injured):
–Porter Hodge – Hodge probably would not have made the roster out of Spring, but an injury assured us of that.
Released/DFA’d
None yet
Cubs in 7 
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