It’s no secret that Shota Imanaga is on a bad run. The Cubs had an opportunity to lock him up for 3 more seasons, but chose to give him a 1-year qualifying offer instead – which he accepted – deciding not to try to get a bigger deal on the free agent market.
But with the injury to Cade Horton, which we don’t know the seriousness of yet, his importance as a positive factor in the Cubs rotation has only gotten larger And if our fears are realized, and Horton is out for an extended period of time, the Cubs are going to need to see Imanaga return to the form he had in 2024 and at the beginning of 2025.
I did extensive looks at Imanaga in a few previous posts, including looking at his fall-off post-injury in 2025:
But he is on a current streak which hardly seems possible. Shota Imanaga has given up home runs in 12 straight appearances – 19 total allowed – across his last 9 starts in the 2025 regular season, two postseason games and his first start of 2026. The Cubs have lost 9 of those 12 games.
If we go back further, he’s given up homers in 14 of 15 appearances (24 total), 15 of 17 (25), and 16 of 19 (28). 28 homers allowed in 19 appearances is absurd.
But to focus on the streak, let’s take a closer look at which of his pitches are being hit out of the park. For mistakes, I’m including any fastballs that are in the middle or lower vertical sections of the zone. For splitters, anything in the middle or upper vertical sections of the zone.
2025-08-10
A low splitter, middle of the zone, but not a terrible pitch. The 90 mph fastball that oreceeded it looks like a much worse pitch. Verdict: Splitter – Not Mistake
2025-08-16
Almost middle middle, I’m going to treat this as a mistake, as it was touching the middle vertical section. Verdict: Splitter – Mistake
2025-08-21
Fastball low an in, in a great spot for a left-handed hitter. Verdict: Fastball – Mistake
2025-08-28
High fastball in a decent spot. Only 91 mph, but that was normal for Imanaga in the 2nd half of 2025. Verdict: Fastball – Not Mistake
Adamas has to climb the strike zone to connect with this fastball, after two low off-speed pitches. It was not a mistake, but if he was sitting on it, you can understand how he would have been able to hit 91 above the zone. Verdict: Fastball – Not Mistake.
2025-09-02
Middle-middle fastball. Verdict: Fastball – Mistake
Another middle, middle fastball. Yikes. Verdict: Fastball – Mistake
2025-09-08
One game later, Imanaga gives Albies another fastball near middle middle, and not high enough. Verdict: Fastball – Mistake
2025-09-14
Splitter that was a bit too elevated. Verdict: Splitter – Mistake.
Low and away splitter, good hitting. Verdict: Splitter – Not Mistake
2025-09-19
Up and in. Should have been safe. Verdict: Fastball – Not Mistake
Fastball middle inner half = bad. Verdict: Fastball – Mistake
Could have been a bit higher, but Verdict: Fastball – Not Mistake
2025-09-25
Almost a ball, but still too low. Verdict: Fastball – mistake
A bit low, but was on the outer half. Verdict: Fastball – Not a mistake
2025-10-01
Splitter right down the middle in a playoff game against a very good hitter. Verdict: Splitter- Huge Mistake
2025-10-06
One of the odder pitches that Imanaga allowed for a home run, but also the most painful. The pitch before was an obvious mistake, which might have been why he decided to go with the slider. He got Vaughn to swing at a rare sweeper low an in earlier in the at bat, so maybe he was trying to do the same thing. He got the chase, but the pitch was just too high. Verdict: Slider – Mistake
Too far inside or not inside enough. Verdict: Fastball – Mistake
2026-03-29
His fastball in this at bad was 93 mph, which is nice to see. How Wiemer got to that splitter to hit it hard enough to gold out the the park is pretty impressive. It might have been a little more inside than he wanted, but Verdict: Splitter – Not Mistake
Here’s the total tally:
| Pitch Type | Homers | Mistakes |
|---|---|---|
| Fastball | 12 | 7 |
| Splitter | 6 | 3 |
| Slider | 1 | 0 |
The bottom line is that Imanaga simply can’t make many mistakes, as those pitches are in danger of getting hit out of the park. The good news is that his valocity seems to have recovered from the dip in the 2nd half of 2025, and that differentiation in velocity should help both his high fastball and splitter, so hopefully, he will have fewer non-mistake high fastballs get hit out of the park.
The other key to Imanaage is that he rarely allows baserunners, so the homers he has allowed are not as damaging. Of course, against the Nationals, two bloop singles preceded the Wiemer golf shot, making the start look very bad.
Today should be a good indicator of whether that start was an outlier, or whether we need to continue to worry about Imanaga being a viable part of the Cubs rotation in 2026.
Cubs in 7 
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