Opening Day Thoughts

Real Cubs baseball starts today, and while the Spring has been enjoyable to follow, I think we’re all ready for baseball that counts.

What I’m Excited About

The Lineup

I’m really excited to see how this lineup performs, one through nine. Of course, Seiya Suzuki isn’t here for at least a week or so, but I feel like this team can produce lots of runs. I was concerned about how the loss of Kyle Tucker would be accounted for, as there was no one out there that would be able to replicate his production. But the combination of Alex Bregman and Moises Ballesteros as regular additions to the lineup makes me feel like they will be able to mitigate the Tucker loss.

Carson Kelly and Miguel Amaya at catcher is an underrated strength of the lineup, and I think we’ll see a much better Matt Shaw this season. And I think there is a real possibility of seeing improved seasons from PCA, Swanson and Nico. And Michael Busch could be primed for another great year. Then you have Ian Happ, who will somehow put up another consistent offensive and excellent defensive season.

The Bullpen

My biggest worry going into the offseason was how the Cubs were going to rebuild a bullpen where they were losing several of their high leverage arms. Keller, Kittridge, Thielbar and Pomeranz were all at risk of leaving. While only Thielbar was brought back, as the other were all too expensive, the front office did a nice job of re-stocking the pen with cheaper quality arms.

In addition to Thielbar, the Cubs added Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey and Hoby Milner. Colin Rea and Ben Brown are able to man the long and middle relief innings due to the starting depth. I’m not quite as excited about Jacob Webb, but we’ll see how he pans out. They have several guys headed to Iowa who could also contribute at some point: Assad, Hollowell, Roberts, Snider, Martin (Riley and Corbin). And a few injured guys who might contribute at some point – Hodge, Wicks and Thornton.

The other part of the bullpen I was worried about was the closer role. I know Daniel Palencia has the stuff to be a closer, but after the end of last season, where he was used in high-leverage, but middle of the game situations in the playoffs, I had my doubts. But seeing how he handled those high pressure situations in the World Baseball Classic against some great teams booted my confidence in him immensely.

Bullpens have been shown to be very volatile, even during a season. So by adding lots of depth, I think the Cubs will be able to navigate some of the ups and downs. And if things really go poorly, a trade at the deadline for one or two high leverage guys will be possible.

Cade Horton

I’m very excited to see what Cade Horton can accomplish with a full season. Health is a concern, but I think he might be able to become the Cubs #1 starter, if he isn’t there already.

What I am Concerned About

The rotation past Horton

I think the Cubs have done a good job of building depth for the rotation. I can see about nine players who will start games this season: Boyd, Horton, Imanaga, Cabrera, Taillon, Rea, Brown, Assad and Steele. Boyd wore down last season, and Imanaga may have tried to pitch before his hamstring was 100%. This season, there should be the opportunity for some load management, even if there are no injuries (which there will be).

But my concern is that while there is depth, the level of quality of the starters may not be there. We’ve already seen Jameson Taillon get blown up in most of his Spring starts, and I’m just hoping he can have some competitive starts (3 runs or fewer over 5 innings) to start the season. Pitching in the cold weather in early spring in northern cities should help decrease the home run rate that both Taillon and Imanaga have allowed, but it won’t fix all their problems.

Speaking of Imanaga, I still have real concerns that the league may have figured him out. The good news is that his velocity is up a bit since the end of last season. He will give up home runs, but hopefully he can minimize the damage of those home runs by not allowing many other baserunners.

I am not sure what we will see from Boyd and Cabrera. Boyd was great the first half of last year but regressed. Perhaps with some rest at some point this year, he can have a strong finish, and be a bit better in a potential postseason. Cabrera should be an upgrade, and provide velocity and a strikeout rate we haven’t seen from other starters. But he was not dominant in Miami, so I would expect ups and downs.

Streaky Hitting

While I am feeling good about the lineup overall, I am concerned that we could see inconsistency. And if enough of the Cubs hitters get on cold streaks, and have some low scoring games, that could lead to some losing streaks – as I don’t feel like the Cubs have dominant pitchers. PCA, Happ, Swanson, Kelly, Shaw and Suzuki all had up and down stretches last season, but several of the slumps coincided during the 2nd half, forcing the pitching to step up.

An Improved NL Central

It will be interesting to see if the Baseball Gods are going to extend the punishment of the Brewers for their lame “Fly the W’ flag after beating the Cubs. The injury to Jackson Chourio in the WBC is a bad sign for them. But I just can’t count them out. While my head says the Cubs should win the Central, my gut just can’t pick against the Brewers, and their voodoo magic, until they show that losing their best players actually hurts them.

The Reds have lost Hunter Greene for a long stretch. but could have a potent lineup, especially if Eugenio Suarez and Elle De La Cruz can be more consistent. They may still be a year away, but long-term, they should be very competitive in the Central.

The Pirates also may be a year or two away from being a major thorn in the Cubs’ side, especially with Konnor Griffin being help back in AAA to start the season. But they have Paul Skenes and some other good pitchers.

And the Cardinals are in the midst of rebuilding, but have enough young talent to cause some problems.

Overall

I am very bullish on the 2026 season for the Cubs. With an impending labor situation and lots of impending free agents, I don’t want to look very far ahead. But anything other than a playoff appearance, and a competitive team in the playoffs will be a big disappointment.