The first 2026 installment how I’m feeling about the Cubs rotation. This is not deep-dive or statistics driven…just my gut feel.
I did a deep dive on the Cubs starters after last season (https://cubsin7.blog/2025/10/29/cubs-offseason-position-review-starting-pitcher/), and all of them are still here. With the additions of Edward Cabrera and Justin Steele (in a couple of months), they should have plenty of depth at starter. My biggest concern is whether they have enough top of the rotation talent to compete in a playoff series. Can Cade Horton continue the success of last season? Is Matthew Boyd an All-Star or just a mid-rotation guy? Is Cabrera worth what the Cubs paid for him, or will he continue to be inconsistent.
The bottom of the rotation could also be problematic, as Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon have show signs of being home-run prone during the Spring. I’m less concerned about Imanaga, but Taillon got obliterated in almost all of his spring starts. The good news is that the Cubs have Colin Rea, Ben Brown and Javier Assad immediately available, with Steele coming relatively soon.
Green = Moving Up
Red = Moving Down
Blue = Moving out
Orange = Moving In
White = No Change
Ace – would start this pitcher in Game 7 of the World Series
No one at the moment. I’m hoping Horton or Steele might fit this role, but we’ll see.
Near Ace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a playoff series
Cade Horton – This is a carry-over from 2025. Horton looked decent this spring, with a 3.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, although I am putting very little value on any Spring Training numbers. He was driven to be more efficient with his pitches last season, as he was on a pitch count, and it seemed to drive him to trust his stuff. That ultimately worked out very well.
Embrace – would feel comfortable starting this pitcher in a big regular season game
Matthew Boyd – Boyd pitched well beyond most people’s expectations in 2025, and the hope is that he can continue that – and stay healthy – in 2026. He’ll be the Opening Day starter, but I would guess that most Cub fans don’t expect him to be their best starter. With a deeper rotation, perhaps the Cubs manage his workload in the middle of the season to try to avoid a late season regression, which we saw last year.
Edward Cabrera – I’m not rally sure what to expect from Cabrera. His 2.8 WAR in 2025 would have been 2nd among Cubs starters. His 1.23 WHIP was a bit high, but he had a solid 3.53 ERA and 3.83 FIP. His 9.8 K/9 would have led the staff. The starting rotation has been criticized for being too many pitch to contact guys, so mixing in Horton and Cabrera with Boyd, Imanaga and Taillon (and, eventually, Steele) should be helpful.
Shota Imanaga – If Imanaga stays in this range for the whole season, I think that will be a win. I’d love for him to get back to who we saw in 2024, but I think the league may have figured him out a bit last season. His hamstring injury certainly played a part in the performance regression. He will give up home runs, but we should see improvement from his Spring performances if there is a cold wind blowing in at Wrigley.
Near Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in against a lesser opponent
Jameson Taillon – As said before, Spring stats would typically be ignored. But Taillon has been so bad – a 17.55 ERA and 10 homers allowed in only 13.1 innings – that everyone is concerned. HIs velocity is down slightly, but there has been no talk of an injury. But if this continues into the regular season, the Cubs will almost be forced to do something. If there is a legitimate injury, he would definitely go on the IL, with Colin Rea most likely to replace him. Although Javier Assad and Ben Brown would be other options.
Replace – would only feel comfortable starting this pitcher in spring training
None but Taillon could get here with a first start as bad as what we’ve seen during the Spring.
Injured:
Justin Steele – They just put him on the 60-day IL yet, but he will be in this spot for a while.
Cubs in 7 
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